The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2021 promises to be a fascinating renewal boasting the inclusion of a number of top-class equine athletes, all vying for immortality and a special place in the history books as an Arc champion.
A field of fifteen has been declared for Europe’s most prestigious flat race, and the market is currently headed by Epsom Derby hero, Adayar (with some bookmakers).
Mare Tarnawa has been disputing favouritism with the Godolphin colt, and Hurricane Lane is third-favourite generally with UK bookmakers, with Ballydoyle filly Snowfall a close fourth.
In addition to the top four in the market, Longchamp will welcome a number of other quality international horses.
We hope to preview the stars lining up in Paris on Sunday, with a more detailed insight on the horses leading the market.
Adayar (IRE) – Trainer: Charlie Appleby, Jockey: William Buick
Sire: Frankel
Dam: Anna Salai
Dam’s Sire: Dubawi
A surprise Derby winner, Adayar easily beat his rivals at Epsom, including stablemate Hurricane Lane who finished in third.
The ground was good to soft on Derby day, but with rain expected at Longchamp on Sunday, it is likely to be a sterner test of stamina.
Interestingly, Godolphin’s retained jockey William Buick has chosen to ride Adayar over Hurricane Lane and the former heads the market for Godolphin.
Adayar only has six career runs. His first two came on soft ground last October in Nottingham.
He started his three-year-old campaign at Sandown, finishing second to Alenquer, who he reopposes, but beating others including recent Belmont Park Jockey Club Derby winner Yibir, and Irish Derby runner-up Lone Eagle, in a Group 3 over 1m2f.
He went off as odds-on favourite at Lingfield in May, for the Derby Trial Stakes, a Listed race, in which he finished a surprising second to outsider of the field, Third Realm.
After this run, success for Adayar at the Derby looked less likely and his price opened at 40/1, backed into 16/1 for the off.
After an awkward start, Adayar stayed on the rail, and with jockey Adam Kirby managing to find a gap, Adayar demolished his opponents and won easily and very impressively.
As mentioned, stablemate Hurricane Lane was a far third, but had excuses, and he is also set to race at Longchamp on Sunday.
Adayar followed on from his Derby success by winning the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July on good to firm ground.
He beat a classy field, including Ballydoyle paid Broome and Love who will also run in the Arc.
International star Mishriff finished in second, having to give 11lbs to his younger opponent.
Adayar also carried 11lbs less than Broome, and 8lbs less than Love, but the three-year-old won impressively nevertheless.
Adayar has won on soft ground, but his big wins have come on good to soft and good to firm.
He was disappointing in his loss at Lingfield on soft ground, therefore it’s difficult to predict how effective he’ll be if the ground does become soft, or worse, on Sunday.
But he is certainly a worthy favourite after winning the Derby so impressively, and beating a number of high-class horses this season.
Current odds: 5/2 (best price available: 10/3)
Tarnawa (IRE) – D K Weld, Christophe Soumillon
Sire: Shamardal
Dam: Tarana
Dam’s Sire: Cape Cross
Tarnawa had been favourite for the Arc since her second-placed run in the Irish Champion Stakes, before being overtaken by Godolphin’s Adayar at the head of the market earlier on in the week (with some bookmakers).
Belgian jockey Christophe Soumillon has been booked for the ride on Dermot Weld’s 5-year-old mare, as Irish Champion Jockey Colin Keane misses out.
Soumillon rode Tarnawa to victory in the Prix Vermeille on Arc trials day (good ground), and the Prix de l’Opera on Arc day (heavy ground) in two runs at Longchamp last year.
In the Prix Vermeille last year, Tarnawa beat fellow Arc candidate Raabihah by three-lengths.
He was also due to ride Tarnawa in the Breeders’ Cup Turf last year, in which she won the race by a length to Magical, before a failed Covid-19 test made Soumillon unavailable to take the ride.
Soumillon is the Aga Khan’s retained rider in France, and has steered two of the owner’s horses, Dalakhani (2003) and Zarkava (2008), to victory in his only Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe wins.
The Belgian jockey has enjoyed an illustrious career, winning major honours across the world.
He has also been French flat racing Champion Jockey on ten occasions.
Soumillon was seen at Newmarket last Saturday, riding Richard Fahey’s Perfect Power to Group 1 glory in the Middle Park Stakes.
Last time out we saw Tarnawa finish second to St Mark’s Basilica in the Irish Champion Stakes over 1m2f.
A steward’s enquiry followed the race, as Aidan O’Brien’s colt, in the hands of Ryan Moore, had drifted significantly to the right, possibly preventing Tarnawa from having a clear run in the final few furlongs.
Many believed Tarnawa could have beaten St Mark’s Basilica, had she had a straighter finish.
However, it’s very difficult to say for certain given St Mark’s Basilica’s dominance as a three-year-old and the class the newly retired colt possesses.
Soumillon has said of the Arc favourite: “Tarnawa is a great filly. I was very lucky to ride her twice last year in Longchamp and won on her twice.
“I was really pleased with her first run this season and last time she ran really great. Unfortunately, she got beat probably by the distance (10 furlongs) and the winner hung a bit towards her.”
Tarnawa will surely be suited to a step back up in trip, and when lining up on Sunday she will be a course and distance winner having won at Longchamp over 1m4f last year.
She is certainly a justified favourite, having impressed on her loss at Leopardstown against a classy colt, and given her experience and staying prowess.
If the ground does turn softer, or even bottomless as we often see in Paris, Tarnawa is proven on that type of ground, where others are not.
A strong, versatile, staying horse with a good turn of foot is needed for this race, and Tarnawa certainly has the ability to contest for Europe’s most valuable prize.
Current odds: 5/2 (best price available: 10/3)
Hurricane Lane (IRE) – Charlie Appleby, James Doyle
Sire: Frankel
Dam: Gale Force
Dam’s Sire: Shirocco
After losing both of his fore shoes in the Derby, Hurricane Lane is yet to re-oppose his stablemate Adayar.
The three-year-old colt has won six of his seven races to date, possibly the most impressive of them the Irish Derby at the Curragh in June.
He started this season with success at Newbury, before heading to York for the Group 2 Dante Stakes on good ground, beating nine rivals including Megallan, High Definition, Gear Up and Uncle Bryn.
The Derby followed, then the Irish Derby at the Curragh.
On Irish Derby day he showed a frightening turn of foot, braveness and a fighting instinct to chase after leader Lone Eagle and go past him just before the post, when the race looked to have been lost.
Hurricane Lane then travelled to France for the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp.
He won comfortably at the hands of Buick, beating O’Brien pair Wordsworth and The Mediterranean in second and fourth respectively, as well as William Haggas’ Alenquer in third, and Baby Rider in fifth.
The ground was very soft on this day, and Hurricane Lane won impressively, showing his versatility and ability to win in different ground conditions.
Hurricane Lane won the St Leger easily as odds-on favourite in September on good to soft.
As mentioned, Buick has chosen to ride Adayar, after riding Hurricane Lane against him to finish third in the Derby earlier in the season.
James Doyle will ride Hurricane Lane, and has said of his mount: “He’s proven on soft ground. It won’t worry him and the trip is fine. Back to a mile and a half should be perfect.”
Doyle has previously finished a close second to Enable in 2018 aboard Sea Of Class.
During that race the filly was denied a run and had to find a gap late on to finish strongly, but couldn’t quite deny Enable a second Arc win.
Doyle will be hoping to go one better with this Frankel colt.
Doyle added: “He’s won the Grand Prix de Paris round there, so he’s had a good look at the place before.”
A St Leger winner has never won the Arc. Could Hurricane Lane make history on Sunday?
Current odds: 4/1 generally
Snowfall (JPN) – Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore
Sire: Deep Impact
Dam: Best In The World
Dam’s Sire: Galileo
Snowfall didn’t show too much star potential as a two-year-old, but she was running consistently in Group races and in well-thought of competition.
However, as a three-year-old she won four in a row, including three Group 1 races, and beat her rivals by a combined distance of thirty-two-and-a-quarter lengths.
Her unbeaten streak was ended at the track she returns to, in the Prix Vermeille last month, where she was beaten by Roger Varian’s filly Teona who was set to reoppose Snowfall before being taken out of the race due to the predicted softer ground.
Her jockey on that day, Frankie Dettori, said after the race: “I thought I was too far back. I think Hollie [Doyle – on O’Brien outsider, La Joconde] didn’t go fast enough for me and it turned into a bit of a sprint.”
But clearly, Snowfall wasn’t the same filly as we had seen earlier in the season.
Perhaps the race wasn’t suited to her, or she was having an off-day, although races in France are often run at a slower pace before turning into a dash in the final furlongs.
Snowfall will have stablemates Love and Broome in the race with her on Sunday, and Ryan Moore will reunite with the filly.
Snowfall was supplemented for €120,000 on Wednesday, and trainer O’Brien said in the Racing Post:
“It was always the plan to supplement Snowfall for the Arc and we’re very happy with her. We’ve been very happy with her since Longchamp and everything has gone well.
“We were very worried about the soft ground going to Epsom, but obviously she handled it well.
“She’s a filly who stays very well and, while soft ground can catch out some horses, it doesn’t catch her out.
“Having said that, she’s ground-versatile and I don’t think she needs soft ground.”
If she can return to form, Snowfall surely will contest, and could win if improving against the colts and classy mare Tarnawa.
She is deservingly short-priced in the market, as she has impressed so many times this season, and should cope with the ground.
Snowfall leads the Ballydoyle hopefuls, aiming to give O’Brien a third win in the race.
Current odds: 5/1 generally
Chrono Genesis (JPN) – Takashi Saito, Oisin Murphy
Sire: Bago
Dam: Chronologist
Dam’s Sire: Kurofune
Japanese horses have been attempting to win the Arc for over 50 years, and as we look ahead to the 100th renewal, a horse from outside of Europe is yet to win the prestigious race.
Japan has two hopefuls this year, and Chrono Genesis leads the line ahead of Deep Bond.
The late successful stallion Deep Impact had possibly been Japan’s best hopes for the Arc but things didn’t quite go to plan for him in the 2006 race as he finished in the places but was later disqualified.
It’s worth mentioning Nakayama Festa, who finished a close second to Sir Michael Stoute’s Workforce in the 2010 renewal, beaten only by a head to dash Japan’s hopes.
And it was heartbreak once again for Japan in 2012, when Orfevre went clear before hanging to the right and being pipped at the post by Solemia.
As mentioned, Chrono Genesis leads the Japanese hopes for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Champion Jockey Oisin Murphy takes the ride on this Japanese mare, who will be hoping to go one better than her previously mentioned compatriots and take the illustrious prize.
The Irishman has a strong affiliation with Japan, and will be hoping to make dreams come true for them on Sunday.
He suffered a hefty fall pre-race at Salisbury on Thursday, and was taken to hospital but has since been discharged and will be ready to take the ride aboard Chrono Genesis.
Last time out we saw Chrono Genesis win a Group 1 on good to firm at Hanshin in Japan, in June.
She will return to track at Longchamp following a 98-day absence, but the mare usually runs after lengthy breaks and doesn’t often tend to run races too close together, so this shouldn’t be a concern.
Perhaps the most interesting of her form, and the race that stands out, is from Meydan in March in the Sheema Classic, where she finished second by a neck to the superstar that is Mishriff.
A neck behind Chrono Genesis in third was Loves Only You, a Japanese mare that is by the aforementioned late stallion Deep Impact.
Mishriff won the Juddmonte International following his Riyadh and Meydan exploits earlier on in the year, and Loves Only You has since gone on to win a Group 1 in Honk Kong.
The trio went clear of the rest of the field, but interestingly in fourth was Godolphin’s Walton Street who won very impressively in a Group 1 at Woodbine most recently for Dettori.
This is impressive form, but perhaps the main concerns will be how she will fare on the ground come Sunday.
As mentioned, it is expected to rain and the ground is likely to become soft, if not worse, and Chrono Genesis’ form is mainly on the firmed side of good.
She has run once on yielding ground however, and won, but this will be a tougher test in an attempt to make history for Japanese horse racing.
Current odds: 9/1 (best price available: 12/1)
Love (IRE) – Aidan O’Brien, Frankie Dettori
Sire: Galileo
Dam: Pikaboo
Dam’s Sire: Pivotal
Much of the talk ahead of last year’s Arc was of O’Brien’s filly against the two-time Arc champion Enable, as Enable went in search of a third historic Arc.
As it happened, O’Brien had no runners in the Arc after the horses tested positive for a prohibited substance that was in contaminated feed.
But Love wouldn’t have lined up regardless.
She was pulled out of the race due to the ground promising to be on the soft side, and it did come up as heavy.
Love may finally get her chance this year, if the rain stays away, which doesn’t look likely, but she is nowhere near as fancied as she was last year, disputing favouritism with Enable.
This year she is currently at odds of 20-1 at best, as Snowfall heads the market for Ballydoyle.
Love has raced on ground softer than good, but that was during her two-year-old season, on yielding ground at the Curragh, and good to soft at Newmarket.
On neither occasion did she win.
Her form hasn’t been as impressive this year, as it was during her three-year-old campaign.
She won three times last season, all in Group 1 races: the 1000 Guineas, the Epsom Oaks and the Yorkshire Oaks.
This year she won first time out, beating Audarya to win the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.
She then went up against Adayar and Broome, who reoppose her in the Arc, as well as Mishriff and Lone Eagle in a high-quality renewal of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
Love finished third, in a race Adayar won impressively, but as mentioned the Godolphin colt was receiving weight from his elders, as he does again on Sunday.
Love was then beaten convincingly by Mishriff in the Juddmonte International, finishing third behind Alenquer who was in second.
Last time out she appeared at the Curragh and was again beaten very narrowly by La Petite Coco, who was receiving 9lbs from O’Brien’s Love, but although Love was defeated again, her trainer was pleased with her performance.
O’Brien has said: “The plan is for Love to run.
“She has been running well all year and had a very good run in the Blandford Stakes when she gave a filly [La Petite Coco] rated 110 9lb.
“That was a big effort and we’re looking forward to running her.”
With Dettori taking the ride aboard the Galileo filly, she is sure to become shorter in the market if she does line-up on Sunday.
Naturally backers will have concern over the ground, as she has been pulled out of races previously due to a softer surface.
But, if she does run on soft ground, it will be an unknown for racing fans, as she is unexposed on a softer surface on a racecourse.
She has shown plenty of class during her career, and she could make a bold bid at a bigger price.
Current odds: ranging from 12/1 – 20/1
Raabihah (USA) – J-C Rouget, Cristian Demuro
Sire: Sea The Stars
Dam: Garmoosha
Dam’s Sire: Kingmambo
Raabihah is owner and breeder Shadwell’s hope for the 2021 Arc.
This four-year-old daughter of Sea The Stars has raced four times this season, placing second in three consecutive races before winning a Group 2 at Deauville in August.
She lined up for the Arc last year, in which she finished fifth, four-and-a-quarter lengths behind Sottsass.
She also ran in the Prix Vermeille finishing three-lengths behind winner Tarnawa.
The filly has a bit to find with one of the favourites, Tarnawa, this year, but has decent form on softer ground having placed second in soft and heavy ground respectively, twice this season.
The trainer/jockey duo paired up last year to win the Arc with Sottsass and Jean-Claude Rouget has said of his hope this year: “Her very good performance in last year’s Arc was what decided us to keep her in training at the age of four.
“There are lots of horses in the Arc, which have had a long season and we are banking on her freshness to make a difference.
“Obviously, she is not going to be one of the favourites, but she can beat the favourite thanks to being fresh and being able to handle the ground.”
Current odds: ranging from 16/1 – 25/1
Deep Bond (JPN) – Ryuji Okubo, Mickael Barzalona
Sire: Kizuna
Dam: Zepyranthes
Dam’s Sire: King Halo
Deep Bond was victorious in the Prix Foy over course and distance in early September when ridden by Italian jockey Cristian Demuro from the front
The four-year-old beat Broome by a length-and-a-half, and also beat multiple Group 1 winner Skalleti.
He is yet to win a Group 1 race but has won twice at Group 2 level, and his best form is usually over further.
On Sunday, he will line up in the hands of Mickael Barzalona and will be another looking to make history for Japan.
As with his compatriot, the worry for this colt will be the ground.
He is unproven on soft ground, but has won on yielding, in a Group 2 race in Japan.
Trainer Okuba, said via an interpreter: “”Cristian [Demuro] couldn’t ride for various reasons and I was surprised that Mickael Barzalona was free in the race.
It will depend on the weather (how Deep Bond is ridden). There is rain forecast over the weekend, so the ground is going to be a littler softer that it was on the day of the Prix Foy.”
Current odds: 20/1 (best price available: 25/1)
Alenquer (FR) – William Haggas, Tom Marquand
Sire: Adlerflug
Dam: Wild Blossom
Dam’s Sire: Areion
Alenquer lines up for British trainer William Haggas at a bigger price.
The three-year-old colt enjoys a softer ground, having raced six times in his career, four of those races came on soft ground or worse.
He appeared at Longchamp in July, finishing a distant third to Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris on very soft ground, before finishing a distant runner-up to Mishriff, and ahead of Love, in the Juddmonte International, in a race that was run on good ground.
Jockey Marquand, who will make his Arc debut, said on the Racing Post website: “I’m massively looking forward to it.
“He’s a horse who hasn’t been seen to his full potential yet. He’s been second in a Juddmonte and won at Royal Ascot, so he holds some brilliant form.
“I’m really looking forward to seeing him back over a mile and a half and fingers crossed things fall our way and we can get a good gate. Every inch can make the difference.”
Alenquer has been drawn in stall 8, which is nearest the middle, and with many of the others in this race unproved over soft, Alenquer could challenge for the places if the rain does come ahead of Sunday’s showpiece.
Current odds: 25/1 (best price available: 28/1)
Mojo Star (IRE) – Richard Hannon, Rossa Ryan
Sire: Sea The Stars
Dam: Galley
Dam’s Sire: Zamindar
The three-year-old colt will be hoping to emulate his sire by winning the Arc, however his form isn’t quite as impressive as the 2009 winner.
Mojo Star raced only once as a two-year-old, beaten by a nose at Newbury.
This season he has run in three Group 1 races, finishing second to Adayar in the Derby, a distant fifth to Hurricane Lane in the Irish Derby and second again to Hurricane Lane in the St Leger.
On form, he certainly has a lot to find with the Godolphin pair who are among the favourites, but Mojo Star has shown strength and determination to place in the Derby and St Leger in decent company.
He was a 50/1 shot at Epsom, but finished ahead of rivals who promised plenty, but didn’t provide.
He has raced once on heavy ground, and has run three times on good to soft and has proven he can stay over a further trip in the St Leger.
Current odds: 33/1 generally
Sealiway (FR) – Cedric Rossi, Franck Blondel
Sire: Galiway
Dam: Kensea
Dam’s Sire: Kendargent
Sealiway has finished behind St Mark’s Basilica twice this season, once in Longchamp finishing eighth, three-lengths behind, and secondly at Chantilly last time out finishing a closer second.
He won on the Arc card last year, beating Nando Parrado by eight-lengths in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere on heavy ground.
Sealiway is unexposed over the trip, having not run over further than 1m2 1/2f. But on a positive point for connections, he has proved he can run on heavy ground.
If able to stay the trip, Sealiway could be another vying for the places, but this looks to be a very competitive race.
Sealiway carries the colours of Haras de la Gousserie and racing manager Pauline Chehboub said on the At The Races website:
“Sealiway is going to go to the Arc, if all goes well between now and the big day. So far we are happy with his preparation.
“His morning rider has a good feeling and thinks he’s good, if not better than before the Jockey Club. He is in good condition.”
Current odds: 33/1 (best price available: 40/1)
Broome (IRE) – Aidan O’Brien, Yutaka Take
Sire: Australia
Dam: Sweepstake
Dam’s Sire: Acclamation
The five-year-old has enjoyed a decent season, performing consistently in Group races.
He started out the season with victory at Naas, before winning a Group 3 and Group 2 at the Curragh.
He finished second to Wonderful Tonight, who was an Arc hopeful before suffering a career-ending injury, on soft ground at the Royal Ascot meeting, before travelling to France for success in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud.
At Ascot on good to firm ground in July however, Broome finished fourth of five, in a race already mentioned which was won by Adayar and also featured stablemate Love.
Broome will surely appreciate a softer surface come Sunday, and has proven his ability over he distance.
He ran on Arc trials day in the Prix Foy, finishing second to Deep Bond on good ground but could surely reverse that form on softer.
As currently one of the big outsiders in the market, Broome will surely be a decent bet for backers wanting a proven stayer on soft ground, and is the third hope for Ballydoyle.
Current odds: 50/1 (best price available: 66/1)
Torquator Tasso (GER) – Marcel Weiss, Rene Piechulek
Sire: Adlerflug
Dam: Tijuana
Dam’s Sire: Toylsome
Torquator Tasso is the German hopeful for the Arc on Sunday.
The four-year-old is experienced in Group 1 company in Germany, and won last time out at Baden-Baden over 1m4f on good to soft ground.
He hasn’t won on softer ground, but has come second in a Group 1 on heavy.
Back in July of 2020, he finished a close second to last year’s Arc runner-up In Swoop in Hamburg.
Trainer Marcel Weiss said: “We’re very much looking forward to Sunday.
“He’s always been special since he was a two-year-old, he showed himself very early on and he’s done it right through his racing life.”
Current odds: 66/1 (best price available: 80/1)
Baby Rider (FR) – P Bary, Ioritz Mendizabal
Sire: Gleneagles
Dam: Gyrella
Dam’s Sire: Oasis Dream
This three-year-old will look to emulate his sire by winning on Arc weekend.
Gleneagles was a Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere winner for Aidan O’Brien in 2014, whereas Baby Rider will likely compete for the main attraction – the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
This season, Baby Rider has finished a long way behind St Mark’s Basilica in the French Derby, and fifth behind Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris.
He was also beaten by a nose in the Prix Niel on Arc trials weekend, finishing behind Bubble Gift whom he will reoppose on Sunday.
Earlier in the season, Baby Rider did win twice at Saint-Cloud in lesser company however, but will need to improve massively to be in contention at Longchamp.
He has won on very soft ground in his debut season, but didn’t fare well in the French Derby on soft, nor in the Grand Prix de Paris in very soft conditions.
Current odds: 100/1
Bubble Gift (FR) – M Delzangles, Gerald Mosse
Sire: Nathaniel
Dam: Bubble Back
Dam’s Sire: Grand Lodge
Bubble Gift’s last-outing came on Arc trials day at Longchamp.
He beat Baby Rider by a nose that day, in a race that was missing late non-runner Bolshoi Ballet, and is another that finished behind Hurricane Lane in the Grand Prix de Paris.
Trainer, Mikel Delzangles said: “He has recovered from the Prix Niel very well and I think the race has done him good.
“He hadn’t run since July and really everything has gone very well.
“It was a great comeback run and we couldn’t have dared hope for better. He certainly seems to have come forward since that run and I hope that continues.”
Current odds: 80/1 (best price available: 100/1)
This year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe looks an extremely interesting race, with many having opposed each other in the past, and looking to reverse form.
Much of the form is intertwined, which makes it difficult to predict and very exciting.
Whatever the outcome, history will be made at Longchamp on Sunday and a new Arc winner will crowned and remembered forever.
KM
THE CONDITIONAL 