Following an eventful first day of the Breeders’ Cup meeting, we look ahead to a bumper packed nine-race card this evening.
It promises to be a tremendous spectacle, filled with high-class thoroughbreds all bidding for a slice of history, culminating with a spectacular showpiece; the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
7:05 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) – 7f (Dirt)
Gamine is odds on favourite for this renewal, running for trainer Bob Baffert.
The four-year-old filly boasts a record of nine wins from ten runs over two seasons, and won this race last year.
She is unbeaten this season and looks likely to go close again.
Closest to her in the market is Rudy Rodriguez’s Bella Sofia, who caught our eye when winning easily over 7f in the Test Stakes at Saratoga in August.
She is unbeaten on three starts to date, is still improving, and has won a Grade 1 as well as a Grade 2.
Ce Ce is an experienced mare who was last seen winning a Grade 3 comfortably at Santa Anita in the Chillingworth Stakes last month.
She did finish three-lengths behind Gamine in August, and will have to improve massively to reverse form.
Edgway won a Grade 3 on last outing, and has won a Listed race over 6f, but did finish eleven-lengths behind Gamine in July.
The outsider is Proud Emma who finished a length behind Edgeway in August and finished fourth of five most recently, seven-lengths behind Ce Ce.
She is yet to win this season and looks unlikely to finish first past the post here.
The Conditional’s selection: 6. Bella Sofia 9/4
7:40 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1) – 5f (Turf)
Golden Pal will be a recognisable name to British horse racing fans, having appeared at Royal Ascot in 2020, and at the York Ebor meeting this year.
He finished runner-up in the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot, a neck behind the winner The Lir Jet.
At York he could only manage seventh in a competitive field.
However on home soil he is unbeaten since finishing second on debut, and is the favourite here.
He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint in 2020, and is the one to beat.
There are plenty of horses hoping to finish ahead of Golden Pal, and the European hopes are led by Kevin Ryan’s Emaraaty Ana who is currently second favourite in the market.
The five-year-old has plenty of experience and was last seen beating Starman to win the Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock in September.
Prior to that race, he finished a length-and-a-quarter second to Winter Power in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York, a race in which Golden Pal finished seventh.
He did outrun his odds of 40/1 on that day, but on that form he is ahead of the favourite, but will have to settle quickly when making his US debut.
Emaraaty Ana’s stablemate Glass Slippers finished third, over five-lengths behind winner A Case Of You, on heavy ground at Longchamp.
On a sounder surface however, she finished much closer to A Case Of You at the Curragh, but was still a neck behind, receiving weight.
Her last win came in this race last year, and she’ll have to be at her best and better this season’s form to regain her crown.
The aforementioned A Case Of You comes into this race on the back of success in the Prix de l’Abbaye.
The faster surface could be an issue, as the colt is yet to win a race on ground better than soft.
Lieutenant Dan is unbeaten this season, having won all three of his races on firm ground.
Two of the wins came over 5f at Del Mar, the latter of the two in a Grade 3 race.
The five-year-old gelding has plenty to like, and could feature here.
Gear Jockey won the Grade 3 Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint Stakes last time out over 6f, whilst Arrest Me Red won the Grade 3 Sprint Invitational Stakes at Belmont Park when last seen.
Kimari drops back to 5f for the first time since 2019, but did win over 5.5f on a sloppy surface Listed in February.
Wesley Ward’s filly finished second in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot in 2020, but hasn’t been seen since winning the Madison Stakes at Keeneland in April.
Fast Boat finished fourth behind Gear Jockey at Kentucky, but did win a Grade 3 ahead of him in August.
Extravagant Kid is another who has featured in the UK this season, finishing third in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot before finishing a disappointing fourteenth in the July Cup Stakes at Newmarket in July.
He did win a Group 1 at Meydan in March, but finished behind Golden Pal on last outing.
Caravel is a bigger priced runner who did win a Grade 3 on debut, but hasn’t quite fired since.
Charmaine’s Mia is the outsider of the field, whilst Bombard, The Critical Way, Chaos Theory, Beer Can Man, Commander and Hollywood Talent are reserves.
The Conditional’s selection: 4. Lieutenant Dan 6/1
8:19 – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) – 1m (Dirt)
Todd Pletcher’s Life Is Good is the current odds-on favourite for the Dirt Mile with four wins from five so far, his only loss coming to Jackie’s Warrior in a Grade 1 in August.
He has beaten Medina Spirit on two occasions, and was last seen winning easily at Belmont Park in September.
Silver State is the closest competitor according to the market, and was unlucky to lose on last outing at Parx.
He finished ahead of Knicks Go in a Grade 1 earlier in the season, before being well beaten by him in the Whitney Stakes in August.
Ginobili is looking for a hat-trick of wins, having won a claiming race in July then a Grade 2 at Del Mar over 7f.
He will return to a mile for the second time, and has much to prove over the distance in better company.
Eight Rings won on last outing at Santa Anita, but that was his first win since his Grade 1 success as a juvenile in 2019.
Pingxiang is US bred but Japanese trained, and is another coming into the race bidding for a hat-trick of wins.
Japanese runner Jasper Prince steps back up to a mile for the first time since his debut in 2018, and was last seen winning well in a Listed race at Chukyo.
Snapper Sinclair and Restrainedvengence complete the field but will have to be at their best to feature.
The Conditional’s selection: 5. Life Is Good 8/11
8:59 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) – 1m3f (Turf)
Many would argue that Aidan O’Brien’s star filly Love hasn’t quite reached the heights of her unbeaten three-year-old campaign, however she did win the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes earlier on in the season, beating Audarya.
The daughter of Galileo is the current favourite here, on her US debut, and has the capabilities to bounce back to winning ways.
Audarya, last year’s winner over 9.5f, is a 6/1 shot to regain her crown, but is without a win this season and will step up in trip here.
She has finished as runner-up in two Group 1 races this term, the latter coming in the Prix Jean Romanet at Deauville.
War Like Goddess is the favourite of the US based horses, and she is six from seven in her career so far.
She was last seen winning a Grade 1 over this trip at Saratoga and looks likely to run well again.
Loves Only You was a close third in the Sheema Classic at Meydan earlier this year, finishing marginally behind Mishriff and Chrono Genesis, but clear of the field including fourth-placed Walton Street.
Following that race she won a Group 1 in Sha Tin, before being unable to reach the winner in a Grade 2 in Japan.
Rougir steps up to 1m3f for the first time, but there shouldn’t be any question marks surrounding her staying ability as she stayed on well to beat Grand Glory in the Prix de l’Opera on heavy ground.
Grand Glory is the mare who beat Audarya at Deauville, on good to soft ground.
Most of Rougir’s recent runs have come on softer ground, but her two runs on good ground have been disappointing.
Both of those runs came over a shorter trip however, and she has shown great improvement since then, which puts her in with a chance of competing here.
Pocket Square and My Sister Nat both run for Chad Brown, and the former is the most fancied of the pair according to the market.
British bred Pocket Square was impressive in a Grade 3 at Belmont Park on last outing over 1m1f, but couldn’t cope with the extra distance when seen over 10.5f at York in 2020.
My Sister Nat is a regular over the trip, but has been well beaten by War Like Goddess on two occasions this season.
Going To Vegas comes into the race on the back of a Grade 1 win at Santa Anita.
Ger Lyon’s Acanella is another runner for Juddmonte, but was disappointing last time out at Leopardstown.
Irish Champion Jockey Colin Keane takes the ride.
Dogtag has finished behind Going To Vegas on her last two outings, whilst outsider Queen Supreme has had plenty of US experience but finished last on debut for Andrew Balding’s yard.
Ocean Road for Hugo Palmer will be ridden by Oisin Murphy, but she hasn’t done much to suggest she’ll cause an upset here.
The Conditional’s selection: 6. Love 3/1
9:38 – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade 1) – 6f (Dirt)
Jackie’s Warrior is the clear favourite for this renewal, and is the one to beat.
His career form is excellent, and he’s already notched up a Grade 1 win this season as well as two Grade 2 victories.
Dr. Schivel is likely to be the favourite’s biggest threat.
He has won his last five races, including two Grade 1 races, and finished ahead of C Z Rocket last time out at Santa Anita.
Following Sea finished nine-lengths behind Jackie’s Warrior in August, but could run into the places.
Special Reserve marginally beat Aloha West on last outing, whilst fiery Firenze Fire looks unlikely to trouble the market leader.
Lexitonian is a bigger-priced runner here, but has tasted Grade 1 success as a surprise winner this season, beating Special Reserve.
Japanese runner Matera Sky completes the line up, but hasn’t shown much to suggest she’ll be able to mount a challenge in this race.
The Conditional’s selection: 2. Jackie’s Warrior 1/1
10:20 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1) – 1m (Turf)
Charlie Appleby’s Space Blues is favourite for this race, having won the Prix de la Foret most recently.
He won the City Of York Stakes on good ground in August, but wasn’t able to fire at Goodwood nor Meydan on prior runs.
He faces plenty of classy opposition in his first race over a mile on his US debut.
Mo Forza has won eight of his last nine races, and looks the one to beat.
He has won over course and distance and conditions will suit.
Master Of The Seas is another runner for Appleby, but hasn’t impressed on last two outings following a marginal defeat in the 2000 Guineas.
He is proven over a mile, however, and it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see him finish ahead of his stablemate.
1000 Guineas winner Mother Earth represents Aidan O’Brien in the field, and will receive a fillies’ allowance.
She was unlucky in running in the Matron Stakes at Leopardstown in September, but has been well beaten on two runs since.
In Love is bidding for a four-timer here and is at a decent price of 12/1.
Chad Brown’s pair, Blowout and Raging Bull, will both be trying to compete for a placed finish.
Irish raiders Pearls Galore and Real Appeal, for Paddy Twomey and Jessica Harrington respectively, will both have to overcome wide draws but have each-way claims if getting luck in-running.
Smooth Like Strait has an excellent each-way chance.
He has finished twice behind Mo Forza this season but was close on both occasions.
At Santa Anita in May he caught the eye when winning the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile, and has proven he can compete with the best on offer here.
s shown he can compete amongst the best here.
The Conditional’s selection: 2. Smooth Like Strait 16/1 (EW)
11:00 – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1) – 1m1f (Dirt)
Fausto Gutierrez’s Letruska is the one to beat here, and is a short-priced favourite.
The five-year-old mare has won her last five starts but will have to give weight to three-year-old filly Malathaat.
Malathaat was last seen winning the Grade 1 Alabama Stakes at Saratoga and will face older horses for the first time here.
Royal Flag won impressively at Belmont last month, but has finished behind Letruska this season, as has Shedaresthedevil.
Private Mission has won four from five races and is another three-year-old in the line up, whilst stablemate As Time Goes By will need to show much improvement to feature.
Frankie Dettori rides Argentinian outsider Blue Stripe for Marcelo Polanco as Oisin Murphy pairs up with Japanese runner Marche Lorraine.
The Conditional’s selection: 6. Letruska 6/4
11:40 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1) – 1m4f (Turf)
Dermot Weld’s wonder mare Tarnawa will bid to win this race for the second consecutive time here, on her first outing following a close second finish in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
She has been in tremendous form in the last two seasons, and will be a worthy winner here.
Godolphin’s Yibir is a threat to the favourite, having won his last two races, most recently in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes at Belmont Park.
Stablemate Walton Street was impressive on last outing at Woodbine, winning impressively in the Grade 1 affair.
Roger Varian’s Teona will enjoy the firm surface, and is in good form having won a Listed race and a Group 1 ahead of Snowfall on her last two outings.
She receives plenty of weight from her rivals here, however will need to show improvement against some top-class opponents.
Broome, Japan and Bolshoi Ballet all run for Aidan O’Brien as Mogul misses out.
Broome is the most likely winner for Ballydoyle, if looking at the market, however Japan is more than capable on his day and was unlucky in a Grade 1 at Saratoga in August, a neck behind Gufo.
Bolshoi Ballet is a big price at 25/1, but has accumulated plenty of experience across the pond, running his last three races there.
He won the Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes in July, over 1m2f, but hasn’t proven he stays over 1m4f and finished behind Yibir last time out.
German trained three-year-old Sisfahan won the German Derby this year, but has only run on good ground once, finishing in third, and may find the surface too fast here.
Stablemates Rockemperor and Tribhuvan both run for Chad Brown, whilst Philip D’Amato’s Acclimate could be out of his depth here, and has been beaten by 50/1 shot Astronaut already this season.
Outsider Channel Maker finished third here behind Tarnawa last year.
The Conditional’s selection: 13. Tarnawa 11/8
00:40 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1) – 1m2f (Dirt)
This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic renewal promises to be a race of the highest-quality, brandishing a card filled with champions.
Brad Cox’s top-class pair Knicks Go and Essential Quality head the market here.
Knicks Go is a winner of the Whitney, the Pegasus World Cup, the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and the Futurity, but has shown he is beatable with two fourth-placed finishes earlier this year.
Godolphin have never won this race, but have a fantastic chance with their three-year-old colt Essential Quality.
He has won the Belmont, the Travers, the Futurity and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile ahead of Hot Rod Charlie last year.
His only defeat came in this year’s Kentucky Derby where he was beaten by Medina Spirit in a controversial renewal.
However, on that day he was unlucky in running, forced wide and couldn’t get back on terms with the leaders.
Hot Rod Charlie was last seen winning the Pennsylvania Derby, but could only manage third in the Kentucky Derby, marginally finishing ahead of Essential Quality.
Medina Spirit enjoyed a front-running ride in the Kentucky Derby, and won the Awesome Again Stakes easily on last outing.
Max Player comes into the race on the back of two wins, a Grade 1 and Grade 2 victory.
Art Collector is unbeaten this season, having won all three of his races.
Stiletto Boy finished five-lengths behind Medina Spirit as runner-up last time out whilst Tripoli was even further behind in fourth.
Both have much to do to be competitive here.
The Conditional’s selection: 4. Essential Quality 3/1
KM
THE CONDITIONAL 