After a short hiatus, The Conditional is back once again with a detailed preview of the card from Ascot as well as a look at the racing from Haydock, and a race from Taunton, Navan and flat racing from Lingfield.
(All prices featured are correct at the time of writing)
We start our preview at Ascot, in the 2:20 Grade 2 Mares’ Hurdle, where Dan Skelton’s Molly Ollys Wishes is current favourite and comes into the race following a disappointing fifth of five finish in the Ascot Hurdle in November.
She returns against the mares here and is certainly a worthy favourite back against her own sex.
Irish-raider My Sister Sarah was disappointing on last outing at Leopardstown, but won a Listed race at Kempton on her previous run.
The eight-year-old is largely inconsistent, however is more than capable on her day.
Western Victory makes her debut for Emma Lavelle’s yard, having enjoyed a successful time with Declan Queally.
When last seen at Clonmel she beat Minx Tiara and Burrows Saint to win and on her prior run she finished ahead of Cheltenham heroine’s Telmesomethinggirl and Heaven Help Us to finish third in a Listed race.
Anythingforlove finished strongly to claim second in a Listed race at Sandown earlier this month, and she should be comfortable on a softer surface.
Whitehotchillifili has a bit to find in this company, but can impress on her day as shown at Sandown last January where she beat recent Relkeel Hurdle winner Stormy Ireland.
Emmpressive Lady was beaten by two of her rivals here in races last season, and is understandably the outsider, but is proven to stay and could enjoy conditions on track.
Our selection: Western Victory 5/2 – although cases could be made for a few contenders here, we’re backing Western Victory on stable debut to overcome her rivals as she has good form ahead of some impressive and successful horses.
An interesting Class 2 Handicap Chase comes at 2:55 and top-weight in the race Fanion D’Estruval has 7lb claimer Lucy Turner on board.
On ratings his opponents have plenty to find with the Venetia Williams trained seven-year-old.
He was an impressive winner last time out at Newbury, beating a number of rivals including Amour De Nuit who opposes him once again here.
Although Amour De Nuit finished a distant third to Fanion D’Estruval on that occasion, he did win impressively on reappearance at Musselburgh and could improve further to feature here.
Current favourite Palmers Hill is bidding for a hat-trick of wins and has taken well to fences this season.
He has looked a progressive type who is thriving over the larger obstacles and will likely be competitive.
Phoenix Way is another JP McManus runner in the race, for trainer Harry Fry.
He finished seventh in the Newbury race previously mentioned, but improved his placings last time out up in trip and running at a lower mark.
Dropping back down in trip here isn’t guaranteed to show improvement, but claimer Kevin Brogan taking 3lbs off his weight will be a bonus.
Killer Clown has been running in competitive company and was an impressive winner at Wincanton when last seen earlier this month.
The trip is certain to suit Emma Lavelle’s runner, who shouldn’t be ruled out.
Golden Whisky is another coming into this race off the back of a good win, and could run himself into a placed finish at a low weight.
Knight In Dubai has plenty to find with Palmers Hill whilst outsider Larry is an interesting contender dropping back in trip.
Our selection: Fanion D’Estruval 5/1 – many of his rivals have plenty to find with this gelding and, although he has been inconsistent over the last couple of years, many of his races have been extremely competitive and excuses can be made.
He is the highest-rated horse in the race and showed plenty of class last time out to give us confidence he is back in form.
Golden Whisky 8/1 (EW) is one for the places if able to build on his last run at Chepstow.
The 3:35 Clarence House Chase promises to be a fantastic spectacle.
Although only four go to post, it is very much a case of quality over quantity in this renewal, as the exceptional Energumene takes on superstar Shishkin in an intriguing battle fans have been longing to see.
The Irish-raider, for Willie Mullins, is unbeaten over obstacles and Paul Townend takes the ride aboard the eight-year-old.
Nicky Henderson’s Shishkin is the highest-rated British-trained jumper in training, and is the antepost favourite for the Champion Chase.
Both horses have plenty of class, and it’s very difficult to split them.
First Flow is the third-runner, and the ten-year-old is himself a classy contender, but may not be able to compete with the top two in the market here.
Outsider Amoola Gold is likely to be out of his depth in this Grade 1 affair.
Our selection: Shishkin 8/13 – whilst we’ll likely let him run this time out, and hope for an exciting finish, we’re backing Henderson’s star to show his class and go on to be successful at Cheltenham in March, but he needs to prove he can beat the best.
Plenty have made comments about Henderson’s lack of desire to run Shishkin against top opposition, but he is expected to do so here in what should be a wonderful race to be enjoyed.
There is plenty of Graded action at Haydock, where Jonbon features as odds on favourite in the 1:25 and Tommy’s Oscar likewise in the 2:00.
But the 2:35 Peter Marsh Chase is much more competitive and the market is headed by Venetia Williams’ Royale Pagaille.
The eight-year-old suffered a nasty cut on the front of his fetlock joint earlier in the season, and the injury has taken time to heal.
His form isn’t overly convincing, but he could well improve and has plenty of potential.
He is expected to line up for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March, and is currently a 33/1 antepost shot, but will look to be victorious here first.
By far the highest-rated horse in the race, he will be the one they all need to beat, and there are plenty looking to do just that.
Remastered suffered a heavy fall when travelling well at Newbury in November before finishing second on reappearance.
He did impress last season, recording a hat-trick of wins between November and February prior to his Cheltenham appearance, in which he finished fifth behind some nice types and winner Galvin in the National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup.
Empire Steel fell when going best at Wetherby in December, and is a horse that has plenty to prove in this company, having been pulled-up on his only start in this class prior to his last appearance.
Lord Du Mesnil ran well on last outing, finishing second in a Grade 3 Handicap affair, beating Lake View Lad who finished in fourth.
He has plenty of experience, and on his day is capable of winning Graded races as shown last February here.
Sam Brown and Lake View Lad are both runners with much to find on ratings, whilst Kalooki finished a distant third to Remastered last season and looks unlikely to reverse form.
Alnadam, Fortescue and Sam’s Adventure complete the line-up.
Our selection: Royale Pagaille 3/1 – despite running for the first time following an injury, we expect class to prevail and the Gold Cup hopeful to reign supreme.
However, Remastered (5/1) is likely to be dangerous, receiving plenty of weight, and could be the best of the rest.
Turning our attention to Taunton and the 2:43 Class 2 Handicap we see Oakley head the market for Richard Bandey.
He finished third in his only run this season in a Class 3 Handicap at Wincanton last month on debut for the yard.
Last season he finished sixth behind some successful horses including Buzz and Cheltenham Festival winner Belfast Banter in a Grade 3 Handicap, but improvement is needed.
Leoncavallo is a useful runner for David Pipe, and is usually a relatively consistent performer.
He has finished in the top three in each of his last five races, so certainly has each-way claims, but could be first past the post here to record his first win over obstacles since July 2020.
The ten-year-old will be ridden by 3lb claimer Fergus Gillard.
Burrows Edge hasn’t fired since his Listed win at Kempton in early 2020, and will be looking to rediscover form back over hurdles for Nicky Henderson.
Getaway Trump is the highest-rated in the race, but gives plenty of weight to his rivals and has looked to struggle this season.
If at his best, he could have each-way claims at a decent price of 12/1.
Our selection: Leoncavallo 9/2 – although he was slightly disappointing on last appearance, finishing only in a distant third, he is a consistent type who is likely to feature at the finish and is helped in the weights with a claimer on board.
The 1:55 at Lingfield features top-weight Diderot who won a Class 4 well last week on debut for James Ferguson after he left Ger Lyons’ stables.
This is tougher, and he’ll once again give weight to his rivals, but there could be more to come from the son of Bated Breath.
Marco Botti’s Mobashr won on last appearance here in December, and has been performing well, showing plenty of progression.
Animal Instinct was beaten narrowly by Mobashr last time out, but reversing form isn’t out of the question and the four-year-old will likely feature receiving 3lbs from his opponent this time out.
Keyser Soze is largely inconsistent and hasn’t quite hit the heights on the all-weather recently.
Hollie Doyle rides Richard Spencer’s eight-year-old.
Shoot To Kill has been impressive of late and is bidding for a hat-trick of wins here.
The trip should suit and he could be one to watch for the places.
Our selection: Mobashr 3/1 – we expect Mobashr and Animal Instinct to battle it out at the finish with the former just getting the better of his rival in the hands of Ryan Moore.
Shoot To Kill (15/2) could have each-way claims.
Dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll returns to track over hurdles in the 1:40 at Navan, having been pulled up in the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree in December.
This trip isn’t likely to suit, and the popular twelve-year-old is currently one of the outsiders in the race at a price of 25/1.
Stablemate Duffle Coat will be hoping to rediscover form in the race, and will be ridden by Davy Russell whilst Zoffanien is another with plenty to prove.
Twelve-year-old Anibale Fly is searching for his first success since winning the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in 2017.
All mentioned are at big prices in comparison with the favourite Mars Harper, also for Gordon Elliott, who is seen as the likeliest winner following a second placed finish to Good Time Jonny at Leopardstown last month.
That run was over 2m 4f and the six-year-old could well improve on that here.
Bread And Butter and Palace Rock both have 7lb claimers on board and the latter steps up in trip for the first time.
Damalisque isn’t without a chance, whilst Henry De Bromhead’s Holymacapony needs to show improvement partnering up once again with Rachael Blackmore.
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THE CONDITIONAL 