Native Trail has performed impeccably in his career to date, with five wins from five, extending his unbeaten run earlier this month in becoming a course and distance winner at Newmarket.
That preparation run sets him up perfectly for this contest, the first Classic of the season.
He beat Claymore then, but was relatively untroubled, and won in impressive fashion ensuring bookmakers shortened his odds for this instantly.
There isn’t much that can be said against the odds-on Godolphin contender, and if he continues his progression he will surely be near the front when these talented colts gallop towards the finishing line on the Rowley Mile come Saturday.
In saying that, he will face plenty of opposition, and the most dangerous threat may come from within, as stablemate Coroebus is set to oppose him.
Another Godolphin colt who has won at the course over this trip.
Coroebus perhaps appeared to be a safer selection prior to Native Trail’s dominant performance at the Craven meeting, as he had already proven himself over the mile trip.
He has only ever raced over a mile, winning twice here, firstly on debut at the July meeting then in winning a Group Three on his last race of his two-year-old campaign.
In-between those runs he did suffer defeat at the hooves of Royal Patronage, who is currently available at a huge price of 33/1 for the 2000 Guineas.
There is already a chink in Coreoebus’ armour, whilst his stablemate’s record remains perfect, and this, along with Native Trail benefitting from a recent run, explains the different in prices between the two in the market.
Native Trail appears to be the more fancied runner from the yard, with William Buick choosing to ride the son of Oasis Dream, but Coroebus still remains a threat.
The best of Ballydoyle appears to be unbeaten colt Luxembourg, by Camelot, who will attempt to emulate his talented sire with success here.
If able to finish first past the post, he would become the first of Camelot’s progeny to be victorious in an English Classic and would certainly boost his stud demand.
He is also the current favourite for the Derby, ten years on from Camelot’s impressive win in 2012.
Could he be good enough to win the Guineas and the Derby?
His stablemate, Point Lonsdale, won his first four races, a five-and-a-half length winner on debut to Unconquerable who then went on to finish two-and-a-half-lengths behind Coroebus at Newmarket.
This formline put Point Lonsdale and Coroebus closer than the market suggests, but the son of Australia was well-beaten by Native Trail over 7f at the Curragh on his last appearance.
He wasn’t disgraced, but he was beaten by the much better horse on the day, with Native Trail showing an impressive turn of foot to put the race to bed in the closing stages.
That was last season however, and Point Lonsdale could well improve coming into his three-year-old campaign.
His odds are certainly enticing from an each-way perspective, assuming the favourite runs to form over the extra furlong here.
Frankie Dettori takes the ride on Aidan O’Brien’s apparent second string, and that jockey appointment is sure to attract plenty of backers.
Turning our attention away from the two giants of the sport in Godolphin and Ballydoyle, there are many other contenders who certainly shouldn’t be written off.
There were plenty of doubts surrounding Perfect Power’s staying ability ahead of his seasonal reappearance in the Greenham Stakes two weeks ago.
He was stepping up to 7f there, having looked a force to be reckoned with over the shorter trips.
In his successful performance he certainly silenced plenty of doubters, and won comfortably enough in the end.
He was keen to post, however, and that was concerning, but he settled quickly into the race once the stalls opened, and looked to win with a bit in hand.
Stepping up to a mile is definitely worth a try, and given he can preserve enough energy prior to the race, the distance should be within his capabilities whilst perhaps being the furthest trip he will attempt.
The Ardad colt is definitely blessed with speed, and the expected good conditions should suit him perfectly, helping him stay the trip as well as allowing him to demonstrate that burst of acceleration he possesses.
Trainer Richard Fahey has never won a Classic, and he’ll be hoping Perfect Power can bring him glory in this prestigious race.
There is plenty to like about his chances and he should be discounted with caution, as he could certainly be a danger to the favourites in the market.
Checkandchallenge put himself in the frame for the Guineas with his win in the Listed Burradon Stakes at Newcastle earlier this month.
He performed well there but this is a much different challenge, and he appears largely unexposed in this sort of race.
Both of his runs, and wins, have come on an all-weather surface, but he did stay the mile when last seen and the trip should be of no concern.
He has beaten some useful colts, but is yet to face the standard of horses he will oppose here.
Dubawi Legend has been beaten by Royal Patronage and Native Trail, and would probably hope for a placed finish at best here.
There are holes in his form, and he has plenty to do to reverse form with a couple of his rivals here.
He was very keen when finishing tenth of thirteen in his last run at Del Mar and there are concerns over his stamina, although he is bred to stay the mile.
It does appear unlikely that he’ll trouble the favourites, but he can be forgiven for showing greenness during his two-year-old campaign, and could well have improved over the winter.
Roger Varian’s Eydon made his debut in December on the all-weather in Newcastle, before returning there in February.
He finished third and second respectively, but showed plenty of improvement to win the Listed Feilden Stakes at Newmarket’s Craven meeting.
That was over 1m1f, and he won comfortably suggesting a step up in trip would be no problem, and Epsom may be his next destination.
He certainly appears bred to run over further, which gives the inclination that this may be too sharp a trip, especially considering the quick conditions.
But he won in impressive fashion last time out, and looked to have plenty in hand.
We may not have seen the best of him yet which is exciting, and he is a big outsider in the market.
Jamie Spencer’s mount in the race is David Simcock-trained Light Infantry.
He’s been given a Spencer-esque ride in both of his two runs to date, winning twice when coming from the rear.
This tactic could serve him well tomorrow, as getting cover may be a key aspect in the race.
He is unknown over the trip, and had to be pushed along early enough in his 7f Group Three win at Newbury when last seen.
That would be a concern in regards to this race, and others are preferred, however he did show a good turn of foot to win there, and may be a useful colt going forward.
Royal Patronage holds an official rating of 113, 2lbs lower than Coroebus and Luxembourg who are much shorter in the market.
He has been exposed at this level in the past, which is the reason for his current odds of 33/1.
On his second start he finished a four-length second to Native Trail at Sandown, but then went on to complete a hat-trick of wins at Newmarket over a mile, surprisingly beating Coroebus by a neck.
He was beaten seventeen-lengths by Luxembourg when last seen in the Futurity Trophy Stakes, but you could find excuses for that run given he had run quite a bit during his debut season and it was on soft ground.
The vet reported after the race that he had been struck on his left hind, and that will have affected him too.
He should perform better than he did at Doncaster, and is a massive price considering the ability he possesses and has shown last season.
He’s a tough colt by Wootton Bassett, and should probably be much shorter in the market than he currently is.
Lusail is another runner available at a huge price, despite having performed well in his debut season last year.
He was beaten on his reappearance in the Greenham by Perfect Power, and has plenty to do to reverse form, however this trip is over an extra furlong.
By Mehmas, who has been siring plenty of useful sprinters, Lusail’s pedigree suggests a shorter trip is more suitable.
He could well stay the mile, but it will be a tough test of stamina on his first attempt in such competitive company.
Boundless Ocean is saddled by last year’s 2000 Guineas winning trainer Jim Bolger.
Poetic Flare was the shock winner then, narrowly beating Master Of The Seas, and now stands at stud in Japan.
He didn’t have an untarnished record prior to winning this Classic, but performed well enough on the day and proved to be an extremely talented colt.
Boundless Ocean failed to win in his first four runs, but ran over varying distances from 7f-1m2f and would have gained plenty of experience.
That should prepare him for this test, and any horse trained by Bolger is worth a second look at.
On his debut he was pipped at the post, giving 8lbs to Lope De Vega filly Dark Vega who hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since and could possess plenty of talent.
At Leopardstown on his following run he was blocked in on the rail, very short on racing room and probably didn’t run his race but still beat Aidan O’Brien’s The Acropolis, who has since finished second in a Listed contest.
Talented Frankel filly Homeless Songs also finished in-behind, and if she had taken up her entry in the 1000 Guineas she would likely have gone off as one of the favourites.
Malex beat Boundless Ocean on his seasonal reappearance, and is another who is yet to come out and run again, so it’s difficult to judge the form.
One interesting observation is that in his 7f Curragh (yielding) run on debut, the winner clocked a time of 1m 27.90, and Boundless Ocean only lost by a head.
Point Lonsdale won his debut at the Curragh in similar conditions over 7f, clocking a time of 1m 27.65, carrying 2lbs less.
This could be a pointless comparison, but with a couple of horses who have finished ahead of Boundless Ocean only having had one run, it’s difficult to know where the ceiling is with the Bolger runner, and he could well spring a surprise for a top trainer at current odds of 80/1.
Berkshire Shadow is another who has tried and failed to compete with Native Trail.
He faced him in the Dewhurst, finishing four-and-a-quarter lengths behind in fourth.
He has also been beaten by Lusail and has plenty to do to reverse form. He did win a Group Two at Royal Ascot over 6f, but is yet to attempt a mile.
Tacarib Bay won on debut over 6f before finishing behind Light Infantry on his subsequent appearance.
He then went on to finish second to New Science at the Craven meeting, and will need to improve plenty on that.
The outsider of the field is The Wizard Of Eye who has looked out of his depth in Group company.
He ran three times in France last season, but failed to make an impression.
He was well beaten by Perfect Power earlier this month and isn’t guaranteed to show improvement, but is by Galileo Gold who once won a 2000 Guineas of his own.
Verdict: The favourite is short enough to be worth opposing, as the quick ground may not suit such an imposing type.
Despite this, Native Trail has to be respected as he’s done nothing wrong in his career to date and is a worthy favourite.
Luxembourg appears the first string for Ballydoyle and Aidan O’Brien has a magnificent record in these races.
If the master trainer is able to clinch yet another Classic here, he will become the most successful trainer in English Classics history.
He cannot be underestimated, and Luxembourg is the selection to be first past the post on Saturday.
If able to stay the extra furlong, Perfect Power could use his impressive turn of foot to devastating effect at the finish.
Royal Patronage and Boundless Ocean both appear to have been overlooked in the market but could be able to shock the masses with big runs.
Selection: Luxembourg 11/2 – Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore
2nd choice: Perfect Power 18/1 – Richard Fahey, Christophe Soumillon
Wildcard: Royal Patronage 33/1 – Charlie & Mark Johnston, Jason Hart
Best of the rest:
1:15 Newmarket – Kilvington Stakes (Listed Race)
Gale Force Maya 5/1 – Michael Dods, Connor Beasley
Already a course and distance winner this season, she did well to prevail on her seasonal reappearance earlier this month.
Connections are keen to gain a black type success with this talented mare, and have a good opportunity to do so here.
The current odds-on favourite, Flotus, was beaten a length by 1000 Guineas favourite Tenebrism in September, which looks to be better form than the selection, Gale Force Maya.
However, Michael Dods’ mare benefits from a recent run and should show further improvement.
1:50 Newmarket 11/1 – Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
Raatea – Julie Camacho, Dane O’Neill
Performed well behind Gale Force Maya earlier this month on first race since October.
He has won here previously, at the July meeting in a lower class handicap.
The five-year-old gelding can be quite inconsistent, but given he can improve on his third-placed finish earlier this month he should be in with a chance in what is a competitive race.
Apollo One 33/1 (EW) – Peter Charalambous & James Clutterbuck, James Doyle
He has been disappointing in his last few runs, but did manage second behind Blackrod here in July, giving the winner 13lbs.
Only 5lbs worse off with his more fancied rival here and does look overpriced given he has respectable form among decent company and is a Listed winner.
3:00 – Palace House Stakes (Group 3)
Came From The Dark 7/2 – Ed Walker, Hollie Doyle
Performed well enough first time out last season and has placed in all four of his runs last season, winning twice including a Group 3 on last run in July.
He has been off track 301 days, whilst the favourite won 16 days ago and will be fitter.
He may be a risky selection but is dangerous to completely.
2:35 Punchestown – Cross Country Chase
Stand Up And Fight 12/1 (EW) – E Bolger, Miss A B O’Connor (5)
He finished sixth over the trip here in February, on heavy ground.
Probably will prefer these better conditions, and the jockey claims a useful 5lbs onboard.
He regularly runs his race, and finished sixth in the Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase at Aintree at a decent price.
He’d probably have to show a bit of improvement, but he may be able to do that and a placed finish wouldn’t be out of the question.
3:50 Punchestown – Mares Champion Hurdle
Epatante 10/11 – Nicky Henderson, Aidan Coleman
She has been in fine form this season and should be winning this contest.
The Nicky Henderson trained mare has beaten higher-rated horses than those she faces here, although there are plenty of likable mares lining up in this field.
Telmesomethingirl is a lovely mare but has a bit to find with Epatante, whilst Shewearsitwell could run a big race at decent odds.
However, Epatante has that extra bit of class and will take all of the beating.
5:30 Punchestown – Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)
The Shunter 14/1 – Emmet Mullins, Charlie O’Dwyer (7)
He’s available at decent odds and may be worth a punt each-way.
A line could be put through his effort at Cheltenham as the ground was bottomless and he may be a horse better suited to a sounder surface.
Charlie O’Dwyer claims 7lbs, the trip should suit and he’s performed well here in the past.
By Katie Midwinter (29/04/22)
THE CONDITIONAL 