The Oaks Preview, Epsom Downs (03/06/22)

Racing returns to Epsom Downs ahead of the much anticipated, the ultimate test of the thoroughbred, the Derby.

On Saturday, the colts will battle it out for the ultimate prize, in an attempt to write their name in the history books by winning the mile-and-a-half contest.

Before that, however, the fillies take centre stage in the Oaks, and there is plenty of talent on show.

Unbeaten daughter of Sea The Stars, Emily Upjohn, has long been the antepost favourite for trainers John & Thady Gosden, who will be well represented as they also saddle second favourite Nashwa.

Emily Upjohn has won impressively in two starts as a three-year-old following a win in one run as a juvenile.

She is well-bred and comes here with a big reputation and plenty of expectation surrounding her.

There appears to be plenty in her favour and her pedigree suggests she’ll stay the extra two furlongs, as she’s yet to be tested over further than 1m2f.

The best may be yet to come from her, and she’s certainly open to plenty more progression which makes her an exciting prospect and worthy favourite to land her first Group One.

Stablemate Nashwa finished third on her only start as a juvenile but is two from two as a three-year-old.

In both of her wins she has looked to have more in hand, and has shown progression when stepping up in trip with each run.

Her dam, Princess Loulou (Pivotal), was a Listed winner over 1m2f, but her dam’s sire’s more successful progeny have been most effective over 1m2f or shorter.

Despite her sire’s dominance over a shorter trip, as a stallion the incomparable Frankel is able to produce effective 1m4f performers.

Many of his progeny are blessed with a wicked combination of staying prowess as well as an impressive turn of foot, on show here at Epsom last year in both Derby-winner Adayar and Hurricane Lane.

If Nashwa was to win the Oaks on Friday, jockey Hollie Doyle would become the first female jockey to gain success in a British Classic

Concert Hall is seemingly the most fancied of the Ballydoyle entries, if looking at the current odds with most bookmakers.

However, with such quality in the yard any horse representing the master trainer, Aidan O’Brien, must be respected.

By Dubawi, Concert Hall is the fourth foal of 2012 Oaks winner Was and is already her dam’s most successful progeny with two wins.

During her juvenile season she ran six times, winning twice, and will have learnt plenty along the way, often competing in tough Group races.

The current going at Epsom is reported as being Good To Soft (Good in places), and the forecast isn’t predicting rainfall.

But, if the ground does turn up on the softer side that would be a negative for Concert Hall, as her worst form has come on Good To Soft and Soft ground, and she’s also been declared a non-runner due to yielding ground in the past.

A proven yielding performer and potentially strong stayer is stablemate Tuesday, who has already featured in two Classics this year, making the trip to Newmarket for the 1000 Guineas before competing in the Irish equivalent.

She finished third and second respectively in those contests, and will be hoping to finally get her head in front over this longer trip.

By Galileo, out of dual Group One winner Lillie Langtry, she has a fantastic pedigree and is a full sister to 2016 Oaks heroine Minding.

In both Guineas appearances she stayed on well but perhaps lacked the speed needed to win over the mile against some classy fillies.

A mile-and-a-half is untried but could be better suited to Tuesday who is the pick for Ryan Moore, as Seamie Heffernan takes the ride aboard Concert Hall.

Wayne Lordan will partner apparent third string Thoughts Of June who herself has respectable form ahead of Group One winner Above The Curve, who won the Prix Saint-Alary at Longchamp last week.

Her win ahead of Joseph O’Brien’s filly came in the Listed Cheshire Oaks, where she benefitted from making all and getting a favourable run around the tight track.

The filly, and jockey Moore, deserved the accolades and praise for a brave run, but plenty believe the runner-up should have won the race and it’s hard not to side with that view.

In the past, Thoughts Of June has stayed on well in races whilst appearing to lack a strong turn of foot to win.

She will likely stay well, and is proven on softer ground if it doesn’t dry up by Friday, which makes her enticing from an each-way angle at a double-figure price, but she may find a couple of rivals too quick for her in the finish.

One of the other Irish-raiders in the field travels over from Owning Hill in Kilkenny, and will be ridden by Tom Marquand for Joseph O’Brien.

Tranquil Lady is a daughter of the 2014 Derby-winner Australia, and is a half-sister to multiple Group One winner State Of Rest.

Her debut run didn’t go to plan as she was drawn wide and unable to get into the mix, but she did stay on well enough and showed great improvement second time out when winning comfortably at Galway.

She finished second in a Listed fillies contest as a juvenile, beaten only by the talented filly Limiti Di Greccio who is yet to reappear this season but is one to look forward to.

On her seasonal debut she was beaten four-and-a-quarter lengths by Concert Hall but subsequently went on to win a Group Three on softer ground ahead of the promising Lily Pond.

Her last run was impressive and she is open to further improvement.

With The Moonlight is the only Godolphin representative in the lineup.

By Frankel, With The Moonlight is out of Dubawi mare Sand Vixen, who won Group Two and Listed contests over 5f.

It’s difficult to know whether or not this filly will stay the 1m4f around Epsom, as her pedigree doesn’t overwhelmingly suggest a strong staying ability.

However, she won well over 1m2f in the Pretty Polly Stakes when last seen, and didn’t appear to tire towards the closing stages.

She has been beating fillies who haven’t quite franked the form, and a few who have struggled when stepping up in class.

But, as a three-year-old she has done nothing wrong in one run and made light work of the opposition in a Listed race.

Any rainfall would probably go against her, so a sounder surface would likely be more suited and wouldn’t be as much of a test of stamina.

Tom Clover’s Rogue Millennium is another unbeaten filly in the field as she’s two from two since having made her debut in April.

Her wins weren’t spectacular, but she did beat some decent fillies at Lingfield last time out, and appeared to deal with the track well there over a trip just shy of 1m4f which should hold her in good stead going into this.

She shouldn’t be ruled out as she is largely unexposed and may be able to improve further.

At a big each-way price she should certainly be considered, as she is one of the more proven fillies over this middle-distance trip.

Moon De Vega, for the Ralph Beckett yard, didn’t have the smoothest of trips around Chester in the race won by Thoughts Of June last month.

She can be forgiven for that but she hasn’t shown enough in her previous races to instill confidence in her ahead of this competitive race.

This may be too tough a task for her amongst some classy fillies.

The Algarve, outsider of the field for Ballydoyle and likely pace angle, will be ridden by Irish Champion Jockey Colin Keane.

She was well beaten by Emily Upjohn on her last appearance and has a mountain to climb to reverse the form.

With only one win to her name in lesser company, she is likely to be found out in this contest and may be there to set it up for one of her stablemates.

An interesting outsider is Ed Walker’s Kawida, who will be partnered by Jim Crowley.

Her form reads well, with two wins and three placed finishes to her name.

She finished ahead of much shorter-priced With The Moonlight on two occasions last season, and on her first start as a three-year-old she finished third to Place Du Carrousel who was last seen finishing a length behind Above The Curve in the aforementioned Group One last Sunday.

Her pedigree isn’t quite as eye-catching as a few of her rivals here, but she does appear to be overpriced considering her form.

Prediction:

  1. Tuesday (9/1)
  2. Emily Upjohn (5/4)
  3. Kawida (66/1)

Long shot:

Kawida 66/1 (EW – 4 places) Ed Walker, Jim Crowley

With the short-priced favourite an unproven stayer and largely inexperienced, the value may be in the each-way market.

Whilst Emily Upjohn is the one to beat, and is clearly highly-thought of by the Gosden team and connections, she has plenty of improving types taking her on and it will be the toughest challenge she has faced.

Kawida is a huge price considering she has faced some classy fillies and beaten them or finished a short distance behind them.

At 66/1, she is certainly an attractive bet each-way, and although it may be a risky selection at the prices she may well be worth a punt.


Best of the rest:

2:35 – Class 2 Handicap

Totally Charming 6/1George Boughey, William Buick

The four-year-old hasn’t been seen on turf since last July but has been performing well on all-weather surfaces.

This trip appears to be ideal, and if able to transfer his good form onto this surface he should be competitive.

Last year’s winner Corazon Espinado is only rated 1lbs higher this time out, and has been on a disappointing run but is one to keep an eye on, whilst veteran Oh This Is Us is more capable on his day.


3:10 – Coronation Cup (Group 1)

Pyledriver 15/8William Muir & Chris Grassick, Frankie Dettori

This popular five-year-old is the one to beat in this Group One.

He has the best form of the bunch and wasn’t disgraced in his international exploits over the winter.

A return to these shores should see him return to the winning enclosure, and better ground would further enhance his chances over this ideal trip.

The lightly-raced Manobo will be a tough opponent and could be more than capable of mounting a challenge, whilst High Definition has been improving of late and may be able to be competitive.

Hukum is worth respecting as a top-class performer and Living Legend beat Yibir on his last outing which boosts his form.

Outsider Palavecino appears to be running for a share of the prize money.

Of the six intended runners, Pyledriver is the most reliable selection having already proven himself at this course in tough circumstances last year.

With such quality in the field it is set to be an interesting race with not much to split the those who head the market.


3:45 – Class 2 Handicap

Cap Francais 9/1Ian Williams, William Buick

Cap Francais flew home at Chester after an awkward trip around, showing plenty of speed towards the finish.

He just failed there but was a real eye catcher and could go one better this time around.

This appears to be a competitive handicap in which this six-year-old gelded son of Frankel is best priced at 9/1 (4 places).

With some firms paying five places in the each way markets (best priced 8/1), there is plenty to like about Cap Francais’ chances teaming up with William Buick for the first time.

He has raced here previously, as a three-year-old, finishing a close second in a Listed contest and will attempt to go one better.

By Katie Midwinter (02/06/22)

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