THE CONDITIONAL returns after a short hiatus following the action-packed five days of Royal Ascot in mid-June.
We’re back with a feature ahead of Saturday’s meetings, with selections from across the cards.
The Newmarket July meeting is in full swing, and having already enjoyed two days of excitement, the third day promises plenty more, with a number of interesting races and stars on show, with the Group One July Cup the feature race of the day.
Perfect Power lines up, bidding to win his fourth Group One and show that electrifying speed once again to gain another success, as he did so efficiently in the Commonwealth Cup.
Newmarket
3:15 – Superlative Stakes (Group 2)
This is a tough race to predict, as the line-up features five inexperienced young colts, four of whom already have a win to their name.
The current market leader Victory Dance is a course and distance winner having narrowly won here last month.
Lion Of War, the late Roaring Lion’s first winner as a stallion, hasn’t done anything wrong in two starts and showed plenty of talent in demolishing the field to win at Newcastle when last seen.
He gave plenty of weight away there, and the exciting prospect who could be special and has a certain aura about him, as plenty would love to see him go on to follow in his sire’s footsteps to achieve big prizes.
Isaac Shelby is one from one after winning strongly on debut at Newbury, and could possess plenty of talent.
The more exposed of the pack is perhaps Dark Thirty, as he has already raced in Listed company in the Chesham Stakes, where he finished a respectable fifth of thirteen.
He could come on for that run and Christophe Soumillon is an interesting jockey booking.
For A Laugh completes the field as the outsider of the bunch, following a third-placed finish on debut.
The runner-up in that race, One Nation, has since won, whilst the winner, Dance In The Grass, is yet to make a reappearance on course.
He is another who is open to further improvement, and could possibly be prematurely ruled out as he’s the only runner yet to win.
Jamie Spencer takes the ride, which could be a wise move by connections as the colt did come from the rear on debut and may well attempt to strike late once again.
Advised betting angle:
If keen on one of the favourites here, the value may come in the antepost markets.
The top two in the market, Victory Dance and Lion Of War, are both potential runners in the 2000 Guineas next May, and if either win here they will likely be much shorter in the betting.
It may be a risky maneuver, but with both appearing to possess plenty of talent, if all is well it’s expected they will compete in the Classic.
Both are currently best-priced at 33/1 for next year’s Newmarket race.
Spotlight:
Lion Of War 2/1 – Charlie & Mark Johnston, Cieren Fallon
This colt could be special, and if able to continue his unbeaten run with a win here, there will be even more excitement and expectation surrounding him.
He brings the best form into the race, and won in a visually impressive manner last time out.
There’s no doubt he is in tremendous form, and a hat-trick of wins from his first three starts isn’t beyond his reach.
3:50 – Bunbury Cup Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
Another open race with plenty of betting interest, Montassib heads the market for the in-form William Haggas yard.
The Exceed And Excel gelding is lightly-raced, winning three from four, and performed respectably in the Buckingham Palace Stakes when last seen.
However, there will be plenty of threats among the field, and Samburu, with a similar run of form to his name, will surely be dangerous.
There is a case to be made for Vafortino, who didn’t get the run of the race at Royal Ascot but did previously run well at the track, when winning the Victoria Cup in good fashion.
He runs off a 5lbs higher mark here, but may be worth sticking with.
Win selection:
Jumby 7/1 – Eve Johnson Houghton, Christophe Soumillon
Back over 7f, Jumby is 2lbs higher than when he last won over this trip.
He has been performing fairly well over 6f, including when finishing third in the Wokingham.
A very likable horse for a yard who are enjoying plenty of success and are currently performing at a 29% strike rate in the past two weeks.
Each-way selection:
Ropey Guest 14/1 (was 25/1) – George Margarson, Callum Hutchinson (5)
Ropey Guest finished second to the in-form Inver Park at Royal Ascot, and was fifth behind Vafortino in May.
He often goes off at a big price and outruns his odds, and that could happen one again.
The yard has won two races in the past two weeks, having saddled four runners, giving them a strike rate of 50%.
This experienced gelding appears to be well-handicapped, and in such an open contest it would be no surprise to see him stay on well to make the frame.
On Thursday, he was available at 25/1 but has since been backed into 14/1 and may go off shorter.
4:25 – July Cup Stakes (Group 1)
This is a fascinating race which features an exciting line-up of top-class horses.
The talented three-year-old Perfect Power heads the market for Richard Fahey.
He has been tested over further this season, successfully attempting 7f in the Greenham Stakes before lining up in the Guineas.
The mile appeared to be a step too far for him, and he lines up again over the optimum 6f, a distance he gained success over in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last month.
Artorius, the Australian-raider, has remained in the UK following his Platinum Jubilee Stakes third-placed finish, and is likely the biggest danger in the field.
He came from the rear in the hands of Jamie Spencer, but did face some traffic problems, and despite finishing strongly he couldn’t get to the line ahead of Godolphin pair Naval Crown and Creative Force who both line up here and must be respected.
There are plenty of horses who pose a threat in the field, which makes for an interesting renewal of the race.
Happy Romance is a filly who has long been in the tracker, but usually receives weight and may struggle giving weight away to some powerful colts in the field.
She is game, however, and enjoys a positive partnership with jockey Sean Levey, so may be one to spring a surprise if at her best.
Twilight Jet was disappointing at Ascot but has plenty of promise, whilst Flaming Rib continues to exceed expectations and chased home Perfect Power in the aforementioned Group One at the Royal Meeting.
The six-year-old mare Romantic Proposal is another strong contender on her day.
The selection:
Perfect Power 3/1 – Richard Fahey, Christophe Soumillon
This son of Ardad is an exceptionally talented horse who keeps on impressing.
He possesses tremendous speed and deserves so much credit for what he has already achieved.
Already a three-time Group One winner, he is fully capable of making it four here, and it would be a fantastic achievement if he was able to see off this talented field of equine competitors.
Artorius, as mentioned, represents the biggest danger to the current favourite, and the Godolphin demand respect for their respective performances when last seen.
However, Perfect Power receives weight here, and that, as well as the form he’s shown, makes him the one to beat.
Other selections from across the cards:
Newmarket – 2:05
TRUELY ACLAIMED – John Quinn, Oisin McSweeney (5)
A progressive filly to keep an eye on.
She is bidding for a hat-trick of wins, having enjoyed a consistent 2022 so far.
Her jockey claims 5lbs aboard, and she should be there or thereabouts.
Ascot – 3:00
ALLIGATOR ALLEY 20/1 (EW) – David O’Meara, Jason Watson
Looked an exciting prospect as two-year-old when winning a Listed sprint for Joseph O’Brien.
He has since spent plenty of time off track, and hasn’t fired when he has run but he does possess talent and could still have his day in the sun once again.
On debut for David O’Meara he finished third behind Tone The Barone and Highfield Princess.
The latter has since gone on to gain Group Two success, and that Wolverhampton run represents a decent formline worth taking into account.
The yard hasn’t been firing of late, but he is running off a more workable mark and may be able to be competitive.
If not, however, he is one to keep an eye on in future, and if his rating continues to drop he should be winning races in the future, perhaps when the yard is in better form.
Ascot – 3:35
MUTASAABEQ 7/2 – Charles Hills, Jim Crowley
He didn’t handle the undulating track at Epsom, and jockey Jim Crowley said post-race that he’d lost his front shoe when coming out of the stalls.
Mutasaabeq is a talented horse and has been showing progression this season, starting off well at Thirsk before just failing in a Group Two over a mile.
He now runs off a career-high mark of 109, and despite having a bit to find with a few of his rivals here, there could be more to come from him and there’s plenty to suggest he’ll improve further.
York – 2:20
JOHN LEEPER 9/2 – Ed Dunlop, Richard Kingscote
Three runners go to post, which may not suit this son of Frankel, however he has been showing glimpses of talent this season and a return to winning ways is long overdue.
He has an excellent pedigree, being out of Snow Fairy, and has often been spoken about as an overrated horse, having not dealt with the test of the Derby at Epsom last year.
His optimum trip has been a question mark for a while, but this season he has shown enough to be worth taking a chance on here.
At Chester, over an extended 1m5f, he finished fourth with Thunderous ahead of him finishing in second.
He didn’t get the best run around but ran on strongly, finishing well, and it was a similar story at York in last month’s Grand Cup.
Without A Fight was successful there, and John Leeper received 3lbs from the winner there, but they meet on level weights this time out.
Although on form alone, the shorter-priced pair in the market would be expected to finish ahead of the outsider, things haven’t gone the way of the Ed Dunlop trained colt and if things do fall into place he has enough talent to take advantage.
York – 3:30
SANKS A MILLION 7/1 – David Loughnane, Richard Kingscote
This colt won nicely at Chester last time out and despite this being an open race he is one to keep an eye on.
York – 4:05
ROGUE BEAR 13/2 – Tom Clover, Stevie Donohoe
He ran well over an extended 1m2f at the track in May, and is up 2lbs for that performance.
Despite being a four-year-old he is quite lightly raced and appears to be open to further progression.
He’s been performing consistently since making his debut in April of last year, and he should be able to be competitive in this field.
INTELLOGENT for Jane Chapple-Hyam is another to watch after running an excellent race to finish second at 40/1 in the Royal Hunt Cup.
He is up 4lbs, running off a mark of 109, but steps up in trip having been performing well over a mile.
By Katie Midwinter (08/07/22)
THE CONDITIONAL 