Katie Midwinter (01/10/22)
The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is one of the most prestigious flat races in the world, run over a mile-and-a-half each October. Many superstars have graced the turf of Longchamp bidding to put their name in lights and write themselves into the history books, but only few succeed.
Since the turn of the century there have been many great winners.
Perhaps we witnessed the greatest of them all, when the incomparable Sea The Stars prevailed, displaying elegance and class. He quite simply was “perfection in equine form” as commentator Jim A McGrath described him as he surged to the lead in the closing stages in the 2009 renewal.
Formidable fillies Treve and Enable both recorded back-to-back wins, respectively, with the latter failing to record three successive victories in 2019 when narrowly beaten by Waldgeist. Torquator Tasso will attempt to repeat that feat this year, facing nineteen fierce rivals who all have the same goal in sight.
This year’s renewal will be exciting, as the Arc always is. The very soft ground will make it a tough test beside the Seine and some contenders will struggle to give their true showing in the mud. However, there are always horses who will thrive in heavy conditions, and it’s perhaps worth sticking to a versatile horse with plenty of stamina.
Favourites do not always win, and market leader Luxembourg will be faced with his most difficult assignment to date. The three-year-old receives the weight for age allowance and recently recorded a second Group One success with victory in the Irish Champion Stakes.
The son of Camelot was once favourite for the Derby, but was forced to miss the Epsom Classic having suffered a muscle injury following his third-placed finish in the 2000 Guineas. He has earned himself a career-high rating of 122 and attempts the 1m4f trip for the first time.
There is little doubt that he will stay the extra two furlongs well and he does have form on soft ground but he does face more experienced rivals and could be found out in a fiery finish.
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has recorded two victories in the contest, most recently with Found in 2016, and also saddles one of the outsiders of the field, Broome. Whilst he has previously enjoyed Group One success in France, he will likely be outclassed in this field and was well-beaten when lining up twelve months ago.
Vadeni is another three-year-old in the race receiving weight from his older rivals. The Churchill colt also steps up in trip following his third-place finish behind Luxembourg and Onesto at Leopardstown. He was short of room in the closing stages but it’s unlikely he would have beaten the impressive winner on the day.
Earlier this season he won the French Derby at Chantilly on soft ground before narrowly beating a rallying Mishriff in the Eclipse at Sandown. If he is able to stay the extra distance effectively, he is certainly a player but has stamina to prove.
Fabrice Chappet saddles Grand Prix de Paris-winner Onesto who is an interesting contender with snippets of good form. He is back up in trip, which is likely to suit, and he has plenty of class in his pedigree being by Frankel out of a Sea The Stars mare. The three-year-old colt is certainly capable of making the frame and is one to consider.
Top-class Frankel mare Alpinista is bidding for her eighth consecutive win, and sixth successive Group One victory. She is a lively contender who has soft ground form and appears well suited to the trip. Receiving the fillies’ allowance she is certainly capable of posing a threat, attempting to provide her trainer, Sir Mark Prescott, with his first win in the race.
The aforementioned Torquator Tasso was a surprise winner at 72/1 in 2021, and must be respected in his attempt to retain his crown.
Arguably the draw has not been favourable this year, drawn in 18 which may be a negative, however, he was drawn in stall 12 of 14 last year and finished best of all, flying home on the outside to gain the victory. He didn’t fare well on reappearance in May, but did win a Group Two at Hamburg in his subsequent run and chased home Pyledriver on good to firm ground in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
His run at Ascot was extremely impressive, and he will have been prepared for this contest, building his fitness throughout the season to be at his very best at Longchamp. Jockey Frankie Dettori has claimed the ride aboard the reigning champion, who could well go off shorter than his current odds of 15/2.
Last year’s winning jockey Rene Piechulek rides Mendocino who recently beat his German compatriot in the Grosser Preis von Baden in a tight finish last month. The colt, who is also by Alderflug, has plenty of soft ground experience but does need to reverse form with Alpinista, this time giving weight away.
Japan has four representatives in the field, the shortest-priced of which is Toru Kurita’s Titleholder. Unbeaten this season, he won back-to-back Grade One races in Hanshin following a Grade Two success at Nakayama in March. There isn’t much soft ground form in his pedigree but his dam’s sire, Motivator, did record Group One and Group Two successes on a softer surface.
He is yet to run on soft ground, whilst two of his compatriots, Do Deuce and Stay Foolish, have been tested on a more yielding surface with neither able to make much of an impression.
Do Deuce ran in the Prix Niel last month, coming from the rear of the field to finish fourth. That was a decent preparation but more will be needed in this company.
Seven-year-old Stay Foolish faces an exceptionally difficult task but is a strong stayer which could hold him in good stead in the closing stages.
Deep Bond is proven on ground described as yielding and has form ahead of Broome at the track but tailed off in last year’s race and has plenty to find with Titleholder on recent form.
Irish Derby-winner Westover was disappointing at Ascot when last seen, but is capable of bouncing back to form and has performed respectable on soft ground in the past. The Frankel colt stays the trip well but perhaps lacks the experience necessary to beat the field in Paris.
Mishriff is perhaps better suited to a shorter trip, and may struggle to stay the mile-and-a-half on sluggish ground. However, he is a classy contender who always gives his all, and appears to be a huge massive price at 33/1. He could be capable of outrunning his odds and beating a few of his shorter-priced rivals, but it’s difficult to see him reversing form with Luxembourg and others based on his Leopardstown run.
John & Thady Gosden also saddle Mostahdaf, a Listed-winner on soft who recently recorded a Group Three win at Kempton. He is well-bred, by Frankel out of a Listed-winning Dubawi mare, and stays the trip, but will need to show much improvement.
Group Two-winner Al Hakeem will need to show significant improvement to be competitive in this field. He stayed on well in the Prix du Jockey Club, coming from the rear of the field, alongside Onesto, to finish fourth. Interestingly he is by Siyouni out of a Galileo mare, as was 2020-winner Sottsass, who won on heavy ground.
He could perhaps improve with a step up in trip, but there are plenty of question marks surrounding him and this could prove to be too tough a task.
Bubble Gift has previously won a Group Two at the track but does have a bit to find with a number of his rivals based on recent performances and could only manage eighth in last year’s race. He was only a length-and-a-half behind Alpinista in July however, and if able to put in a similar performance he could outrun his odds.
Mare Australis was a well-beaten seventh in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud in July, finishing almost eleven-lengths behind the winner Alpinista, with Bubble Gift in third, but could fare better on softer ground.
Former Ascot Champion Stakes-winner Sealiway appears overlooked at 40/1, despite showing his best form on soft and finishing fifth in the race previously. He hasn’t been as effective this season, but perhaps hasn’t been running on his favoured ground and may well outrun his odds.
William Haggas isn’t represented by Baaeed, as many had hoped he would be, but rather sends Group One-winner Alenquer.
He could well out of his depth in this field and, although he has won a Group Two on heavy ground, a softer surface hasn’t always brought out the best in him and others are preferred.
The best of his form this season came with Group One success at the Curragh in May, and if able to perform to that level he could be capable of running into the places, but he hasn’t run well since and has to reverse form with a number of his rivals.
Completing the field is six-year-old mare Grand Glory who has soft ground form but may find the trip too much of a stamina test.
Prediction:
- Torquator Tasso (15/2)
- Alpinista (11/2)
- Bubble Gift (40/1)
- Luxembourg (9/2)
- Sealiway (40/1)
There are a number of quality, top-class supporting races on the card at Longchamp, and here are a few contenders that may be worth keeping an eye on…
1:15pm – Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Group 1)
Pivotal Trigger 16/1 (EW) – Mrs John Harrington, Shane Foley
The Pivotal colt was third in a 1m contest at the track last month. He won his maiden over 7f on soft and could be able to handle the ground better than some of the market leaders. His dam Allegretto, by Galileo, won a Group Two on soft ground and there is plenty of speed in his pedigree as well as staying prowess, making him an interesting contender.
1:50pm – Prix Marcel Boussac (Group 1)
Dandy Alys 28/1 (EW) – Ralph Beckett, Rob Hornby
This young filly is unexposed at this level, appearing in her first Group One whilst up in trip. She has been performing well following a quiet debut run and stayed on in soft conditions at the Curragh recently over an extended six-furlongs. This is a tough test but she has placed in a Group Three over 7f and a step up could well suit, as she does have stamina on her dam’s side.
3:50pm – Prix de l’Opera (Group 1)
Tuesday 8/1 – A P O’Brien, Wayne Lordan
Of the runners at the head of the market, Oaks-winner Tuesday is a lively contender over 1m2f. Although she hasn’t been on song since, she was extremely impressive in a battle at Epsom with classy filly Emily Upjohn and has been running in competitive races since, finishing only a length behind Alpinista in the Yorkshire Oaks. Ryan Moore rides Joseph O’Brien’s Above The Curve in the race, with Wayne Lordan set to ride this wonderfully-bred Classic-winner.
Fall In Love 66/1 (EW) – Hiroo Shimizu, Simon Planque
By Sea The Stars out of a Hurricane Run mare, this interestingly bred filly is a huge price but is capable of showing improvement and may outrun her odds. Her dam’s sire won at the track on heavy ground and she has appeared to handle softer conditions in her few races to date. She has been slightly unlucky on occasions during her races but may appreciate a drop back in trip.
5:00pm – Prix de la Foret (Group 1)
Kinross 6/4 – Ralph Beckett, Frankie Dettori
The five-year-old colt appears the one to beat in the field if able to continue his Group Two-winning Doncaster form. He handles softer conditions and put in a respectable fourth-placed finish in the contest last year.
THE CONDITIONAL 
You think it’s not the right circumstances tomorrow for Luxembourg to take the honours? Very interesting, you know my tip but I’m not confident, yours looks a live chance
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