Katie Midwinter (14/10/22)
1:25pm – Long Distance Cup (Group 2)
Six-year-old stayer Trueshan attempts to retain his crown for the second year running with success in this year’s renewal of the Long Distance Cup.
He has won both of the last two renewals of the race and is bidding to equal High Line, who could not be beaten from 1969 to 1971, and fan-favourite Persian Punch, both of whom have enjoyed three victories in the contest.
The record belongs to Barry Hills’ Further Flight who recorded five successive wins in the race in the early 90s, a feat that is unlikely to be matched anytime soon.
Trueshan has benefited from the early autumn rainfall in recent years, with the ground being on the easier side in the past two British Champions Day meetings. A softer surface is crucial to the gelding’s participation in the race.
Connections took a chance by running him at Goodwood on ground described as good, but he could only manage third behind Kyprios and Stradivarius and was less than convincing in his follow up appearance at Doncaster.
He raced freely in the Doncaster Cup and struggled to find much when asked by Hollie Doyle. It was a lacklustre performance by a horse who usually shows strength in the finish and stays on well in the closing stages.
He wandered around in the final furlongs as Coltrane held on gamely to claim the prize, and Trueshan will need to reverse form with the Andrew Balding-trained gelding.
On previous form, Alan King’s star is the one to beat but he will need to bounce back and if he fails to fire once again there are a number of progressive rivals ready to pounce.
The aforementioned Coltrane is available at a significantly bigger price than the market leader he beat when last seen. On his form this season, he is certainly a worthy contender. He won the Ascot Stakes over 2m4f in June before recording a Listed win at Sandown.
His fourth-place finish in the Goodwood Cup was a respectable run behind three top-class stayers and he subsequently reversed form with Trueshan at Doncaster to win his first Group Two contest.
In the Lonsdale Cup he finished best of the rest behind runaway winner Quickthorn, who was given an excellent tactical ride by jockey Tom Marquand. The main question surrounding the Mastercraftsman gelding is the ground.
He is yet to prove he copes with softer conditions, having only been seen on such a surface once when finishing ninth of a big field in the 2020 Cesarewitch.
At the prices he could perhaps represent some value as an alternative to the market leaders and, if coping with the easier ground he could be hugely overlooked and capable of taking Trueshan’s crown.
Hughie Morrison’s Quickthorn was impressive at York, as mentioned, but failed to stay in the 2m4f slog in the Prix du Cadran earlier this month. He should be forgiven for that performance, as he perhaps didn’t have the stamina to stay the marathon trip in such soft conditions.
He has previously won on heavy, indicating that he is able to handle a softer surface and shouldn’t be ruled out on the basis of the ground.
St Leger-winner Eldar Eldarov receives the weight for age allowance and has proven he stays over 1m6f. Despite staying on well in the Classic, this is a tougher assignment against his older peers as he makes his first attempt at 2m.
The Roger Varian yard has been in better form of late and remains on a decent strike-rate of 20% in recent weeks.
By Dubawi out of All At Sea (Sea The Stars), his dam was a Listed-winner on very soft ground and he has plenty of stamina, as well as class, in his pedigree. There could be even further improvement to come from the colt, given he has recovered well from his Doncaster escapades.
Waterville is another three-year-old in the field, hoping to continue his good form following on from an exceptional win in the Irish Cesarewitch last month.
The Camelot colt was bottom of the weights carrying 8st 9lbs under Wayne Lordon who gave his mount a magnificent ride, manoeuvring him through the pack to beat twenty-nine rivals at the Curragh.
Big things had been expected of the 280,000gns purchase once touted for the Epsom Derby, however he failed to win in his first three starts before breaking his maiden in a handicap over 2m1f.
Now he finds himself attempting a Group Two success which may prove to be a step too far at this stage in his career. He must be respected on his last run and it’s never wise to underestimate an Aidan O’Brien-trained runner.
Ballydoyle are also represented by Wordsworth, a colt that hasn’t quite delivered in the big races so far. He beat twenty rivals including Earl Of Tyrone to win his maiden at the Curragh last year, but has been beaten as favourite on seven occasions since.
Ebor-winner Trawlerman stayed on gamely at York over 1m6f, beating a number of strong rivals. The form hasn’t quite been franked however, with three of the first five home failing to fire on their subsequent runs, and this could perhaps cast doubts in the minds of potential backers.
Over an extra two furlongs the four-year-old could struggle in this company and is unproven on softer ground.
Outsider of the field is Irish-raider Stratum for Willie Mullins, a horse who won the Queen Alexandra Stakes for the second year running at the course over an extended 2m5f in June.
He was last of the field in the Doncaster Cup and has plenty to find with a few of his rivals. He appears better suited to marathon trips when appearing on the flat, and this could be slightly too short for him.
2:00pm – Sprint Stakes (Group 1)
Another reigning champion returns in the Sprint Stakes, in the form of Charlie Appleby’s Creative Force who beat nineteen rivals to win this contest last year. He is a versatile type who will handle the ground if the forecast rain arrives.
Although he is winless this year, he was only narrowly denied by his stablemate Naval Crown in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, indicating he still possesses plenty of ability.
With some give in the ground, he should be able to reverse form with the Royal Ascot winner and appears the one to beat as he attempts to retain his crown.
The aforementioned Naval Crown finished second to Creative Force in the Jersey Stakes on soft ground at the track last year. He is perhaps suited to a sounder surface and may struggle to give his true showing in this race, but could perhaps still be good enough to make the frame.
Trainer David Evans saddles four-year-old gelding Rohaan who excelled in the Group Three Bengough Stakes at the course earlier this month. He copes with soft ground and 6f seems to be his optimum trip but he can be unreliable and his running style means he often relies on luck in-running when coming from the rear of the field.
He has been competitive in Group One races but is yet to taste success at the top level and will need to be at his best to gain the victory here.
Kinross won the Prix de la Foret last time out on very soft ground following back-to-back Group Two wins. His form is good and he is respected but he has never won over 6f and may find the trip slightly too short.
Although the softer surface could see the focus shift towards horses who are able to stay well, which could bring this Kingman gelding into contention, others appear more likely and he faces stiff opposition.
Art Power also comes into the race off the back of a win following his impressive performance in the Renaissance Stakes at the Curragh last month.
The small grey finished fourth in this contest last year, two-and-a-quarter-lengths behind winner Creative Force. It would be no surprise to see him finish there or thereabouts as he often runs well at Ascot and is ground versatile.
Another likely to handle conditions is Castle Star who won a Group Three as a juvenile on soft to heavy ground. He has only been seen twice this season and more improvement is needed, but he does appear unexposed at this level over the trip in open company and could be capable of better.
Brad The Brief is bidding for a hat-trick of wins having enjoyed an unblemished start to his campaign this year. He hasn’t been seen since May and has been declared a non-runner twice on good to firm due to the ground.
The five-year-old gelding has enjoyed numerous successes on ground with ease, but may perhaps lack the quality needed to win a Group One.
Richard Fahey’s three-year-old Perfect Power won two Group One races as a juvenile and was an impressive winner of the Commonwealth Cup in June. However, the form of that race hasn’t been franked, with many horses behind struggling to perform well since.
The Ardad colt has also been disappointing since, and may find this assignment too tough against older, more hardy horses. He is a likeable type and is open to further progression, but he must prove himself in this company and is unproven on softer ground.
Go Bears Go is a dual Group Three-winner this term but would likely prefer a sounder surface and appears exposed at this level. He is available at a big price, as is last year’s fifth Vadream who has been out of sorts in Group races this season.
Aidan O’Brien’s Tenebrism is an interesting contender receiving the allowances. She has been running over 7f and 1m this season, but won two sprint races as a juvenile, including her maiden on soft ground.
Although she has performed consistently well following her disappointing 1000 Guineas appearance, she has shaped as though shorter distances will be better suited.
There is plenty of speed in her pedigree being by Carvaggio out of a Pivotal mare, and the well-bred filly is rated 114, giving her only 4lbs to find with the highest-rated horses in the race, receiving the weight.
She needs to reverse form with Kinross based on her last run, but the shorter trip is likely to turn the tables in the filly’s favour.
Another intriguing runner is Andrew Balding’s King’s Lynn who has good form at Ascot on soft ground. His form this season hasn’t been good enough following his Group Two win in the Temple Stakes at Haydock in May and more is needed now back up to 6f, a trip that could be more to his liking.
He is often in-form at this stage of the season and is available at a big price, possibly worthy of each-way consideration.
2:40pm – Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)
An open field is set to go to post in the Fillies & Mares Stakes run over 1m4f. Frankie Dettori’s mount, the classy Emily Upjohn, currently heads the market for John & Thady Gosden.
There is plenty expected of the Sea The Stars filly who was unbeaten prior to meeting Tuesday in the Oaks. She stumbled coming out of the stalls at Epsom and was unlucky to face defeat, finishing ahead of Nashwa but failing to pass the eventual winner.
Last time out she lined up on good to firm ground in the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes but didn’t settle and never looked comfortable, finishing a distant last, eased down by her jockey.
Westover didn’t fare much better in the Ascot Group One but bounced back to some form with a respectable sixth-place finish in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe recently.
Emily Upjohn is capable of returning to winning ways here, and may prefer a slight ease in the surface this time at the track. She is unproven on soft but moves as though it could be suited and her sire won on soft to heavy ground.
Her stablemate, Mimikyu, could be one of her biggest threats back down in trip. The addition of a hood appeared to make all the difference to the filly following a poor run at York, and she made light work of the opposition in the Park Hill Stakes over an extended 1m6f when last seen.
She was dropped in at Doncaster and swiftly moved from the rear of the field to stride away from the pack impressively.
The well-bred filly is a full sister to Journey who won this contest for John Gosden in 2016. Her dam, Group One-winner Montare (Montjeu), won on heavy ground, and Mimikyu won her maiden on soft over an extended 1m3f, indicating she is a versatile filly capable of handling different conditions.
Eternal Pearl will be a formidable opponent as she seeks a five-timer. She has recorded back-to-back Group Three wins in her last two appearances, and steps up to Group One level for the first time.
The highly progressive Frankel filly was purchased for 700,000gns as a yearling and is an exciting prospect for connections. She has handled softer ground in the past and it will be fascinating to see how she fares against the market leader.
Last year’s winner Eshaada was well beaten by Mimikyu at Doncaster, but was only a neck behind Sea La Rosa in the Lancashire Oaks and may be able to reverse form with her rivals under different circumstances.
She was hampered at Haydock and failed to get a clear run, finishing third of seven. If things go her way she could be in with a chance, but may be vulnerable to younger, more progressive fillies.
Sea La Rosa is a classy type who won on good to soft ground last time out when victorious in the Prix de Royallieu at Longchamp. She is a consistent, versatile filly who is able to cope with varying race conditions. With plenty of stamina in her pedigree, being by Sea The Stars out of a Hernando mare, she is a reliable selection who will likely be competing for the places at the line.
Another filly fresh from a Group One win is French-raider Sweet Lady, who beat Lilac Road and Albaflora in the Prix Vermeille last month. This is her first run on foreign soil but she will enjoy softer conditions and has previously won on heavy ground. In the Prix de Saint-Cloud she finished four-and-a-half-lengths behind Alpinista and is certainly an intriguing contender.
Hughie Morrison’s Stay Alert was a Group Three-winner at Newbury when last seen but does have a bit to find at this level, whilst Rosscarbery is back in trip following her fourth-place finish in the Irish St Leger but may be found out in this company.
The flashy-looking Emily Dickinson, a well-bred daughter of Dubawi, is out of Chicquita who finished third in a heavy ground renewal of the race in 2014.
She hasn’t been able to prove herself at this level yet, and may find staying trips her speciality in future campaigns. However, testing ground over 1m4f could bring her into play from an each-way perspective as she will likely stay on well in the closing stages.
New Zealand-bred mare Verry Elleegant has been below par since making the switch from the southern hemisphere, but there’s no doubting her class and there could still be a big performance in her.
On current form she would be difficult to back with any certainty but she has won a Group One on heavy ground in Randwick over 1m and would likely be suited by any rainfall. At the prices she does appear an enticing selection, and shouldn’t be overlooked as a top-class mare on her day, respected for her past achievements.
3:20pm – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)
The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes will be particularly poignant this time around following the sad passing of Her Majesty The Queen. The contest was named in honour of The Queen in 1955 and is a race that boasts the names of Brigadier Gerard, Frankel and more recently Baaeed, to name a few, on its roll of honour.
Classy filly Inspiral is the short-priced favourite to land the honours in this year’s renewal, ridden by Frankie Dettori who has enjoyed four wins in the race.
John Gosden has also won this contest on four occasions, firstly with Observatory at the turn of the century, followed by Raven’s Pass in 2008, Persuasive in 2017 and Roaring Lion a year later.
With both jockey and co-trainer having plenty of winning experience in the prestigious race, Inspiral is all set to land a fourth Group One win and add her name to the impressive list of past winners.
It’s easy to see why she is at the head of the market as she’s a formidable filly who has only suffered one defeat in her career to date. She was forced to miss the 1000 Guineas, having long been an antepost favourite for the Classic.
On her seasonal reappearance she made light work of the opposition in the Coronation Stakes at the Royal Meeting, beating an impressive field of fillies. In her follow up race, she was quite keen and struggled to pick up when taken off the bridle by Dettori.
At Deauville last time out, she narrowly beat Light Infantry to record another Group One success, and if she is at her best, she should take all of the beating here.
She could perhaps be vulnerable if reproducing her last Newmarket performance but she has won at the track and the field doesn’t appear to be stacked with Group One quality. It’s possible she may be the best of the nine set to line up and it will be interesting to see how she handles the assignment.
The biggest threat to the favourite could be Simon & Ed Crisford’s Jadoomi, who has been supplemented for the race.
A progressive gelding, unbeaten in three runs this season, he is seeking a four-timer for a yard currently performing at a 29% strike rate. He won on heavy ground as a juvenile, indicating he’ll be able to handle conditions well enough to be competitive if there is a significant ease in the ground come Saturday.
He could be slightly overlooked in the market too, and the dual Group Two-winner could well be good enough to give the favourite a fright.
The Revenant is a former winner of the race but is now a seven-year-old seemingly past his best. Although he must be respected as a top-class horse on his day, and the excellent Ryan Moore is booked to ride, he gives 6lbs to the young and improving filly Inspiral, and may find it tough to compete with her if she is at her best.
He finished fourth in the contest last year, beaten only by Baaeed, Palace Pier and Lady Bowthorpe in what was a high-quality, competitive renewal. However, he has been below par in recent runs, beaten three-quarters-of-a-length by Order Of Australia at Longchamp, a horse who finished three-and-a-half-lengths behind Inspiral in his previous run.
An interesting contender is French 2000 Guineas-winner, Modern Games. He wasn’t as effective on soft ground in the Prix du Jockey Club, and may struggle if the ground is on the easier side, but his second behind Baaeed in the Sussex Stakes surely brings him into play in the ground isn’t too much of a negative.
He was last seen winning the Grade One Woodbine Mile Stakes but is yet to prove himself at this level on home turf.
Tempus won as a novice on heavy ground, but hasn’t appeared to enjoy conditions in other runs on a similar surface. He is a winner over course and distance but will need to show plenty of improvement up in class. Bayside Boy is difficult to keep the faith in at this level but did win a Listed race when last seen on soft ground. He is slightly exposed and it’s hard to see him overturning the favourite.
4:00pm – Champion Stakes (Group 1)
The spectacular Baaeed will attempt to extend his unbeaten run to eleven successive wins with victory in the 1m2f Champion Stakes in the penultimate race on the card at Ascot.
The son of Sea The Stars will be making his final start before being retired to stud and is odds-on to make his swansong the perfect end to his glittering racing career. He is an exceptional talent, a superstar, the epitome of elegance and class.
Horses like him do not come around too often and, without making any comparisons, we have not seen such an impressive equine champion since the great Frankel, who made his final appearance in this contest twelve years ago. If Baaeed is to win, it would be fitting to do so exactly a decade after the legend that came before him.
Another angle to the story is the Flat trainers’ championship, a title that has eluded trainer William Haggas so far. Charlie Appleby currently leads the way, and looks to be in a prime position to make it back-to-back wins and be crowned champion once again.
However, if Haggas is able to saddle Baaeed to victory, it would catapulte him to the top of the tree and give him a chance of claiming the prize.
Haggas also saddles My Prospero and Dubai Honour, both of whom are capable of competing at Group One level, but perhaps lack the class to challenge their stablemate.
The former will be ridden by Tom Marquand and was last seen recording his first Group Two win in the Prix Eugene Adam in July. He proved he is able to stay the 1m2f at Saint-Cloud but he was off the bridle quite early on to hold his position from the front, and could see his stamina stretched at this level.
Following the race, the three-year-old son of Iffraaj slipped up and hasn’t been seen since. His prior run, in the St James’s Palace Stakes behind Coroebus, was impressive but a number of horses in the race have disappointed since and this is a much tougher task.
Dubai Honour has won a Group Two on very soft ground over a trip just shy of 1m2f, and has the stamina to stay on well. He is back in trip following his second to Mostahdaf over 1m4f at Kempton, and finished second in this contest last year behind Sealiway, ahead of the lacklustre Adayar, but it’s difficult to see him being competitive on his current form against some top-class rivals.
Last year’s Derby and King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes-winner Adayar, makes his second appearance this season following a win in a three-runner affair at Doncaster last month.
He finished a respectable fourth in last year’s Arc on bottomless ground, before finishing a well-beaten fifth in this contest, a run that perhaps came too soon following his Longchamp exploits.
This is perhaps the toughest test Baaeed will have faced, and if Adayar is back to his best he is capable of being a danger and is certainly the biggest threat to the favourite.
He stays well, and if the race does turn into a stamina test it’d be a new challenge for Baaeed, especially if the ground is on the softer side. The tactical aspect of the race will be interesting and it’ll be fascinating to see how it pans out.
Sir Michael Stoute’s New Bay colt Bay Bridge went unbeaten during 2021, and started his current campaign in impressive fashion at Sandown, beating two Group One winners amongst others to gain victory in the Group Three Brigadier Gerard Stakes in May.
He subsequently went off as odds-on favourite in the Prince Of Wales’ Stakes but was beaten a length by globetrotting champion State Of Rest, who made all to win under Shane Crosse.
Bay Bridge stayed on well but couldn’t reach the eventual winner, and was disappointing once again as favourite on his return to Sandown for the Eclipse, finishing fifth of a six-runner field.
He’ll need a career-best effort to beat the pair at the top of the market and on current form that seems unlikely. If he’s able to rediscover his earlier form he may finish best of the rest, but it’s difficult to see him landing a blow on the top two in the market.
Irish-raider Stone Age is another three-year-old in the race receiving the weight for age allowance, as does My Prospero, but isn’t proven on a softer surface and is exposed at this level.
Mac Swiney is an interesting each-way player if the ground does become soft, as he is much more effective on an easier surface. He won a Group One on heavy ground as a juvenile and was victorious in the Irish 2000 Guineas run on soft to heavy last year.
Based on form alone he is out of his depth in this field and has plenty to find, but at a huge price he could be beating a few of his rivals home, outrunning his odds.
Outsider of the field Helvic Dream beat Broome to win a Group One at the Curragh on soft to heavy ground last year, and will be suited by rainfall but needs to show masses of improvement to be competitive.
4:40pm – Balmoral Handicap (Class 2)
Twenty runners are set to go to post for the competitive Balmoral Handicap, the final race on a spectacular card on British Champions Day at Ascot. David O’Meara has five representatives in the field, with current favourite Blue For You the shortest price of the quintet.
The four-year-old gelding has been performing well in handicaps this term and was impressive at York, narrowly beating his stablemate Escobar with Tyrrhenian Sea in third followed by Orbaan.
He subsequently received a 6lbs hike in ratings, running off a career-high mark of 102 at Ascot earlier this month when only able to finish seventh, four-and-three-quarter-lengths behind winner Escobar.
The victor on that occasion is 4lbs higher this time out, and both are likely to be competitive, as is stablemate Orbaan who has been a consistent performer this term.
The aforementioned Tyrrhenian Sea is certainly one to consider off a mark of 105. He is another who has been running well this season and has a fair chance for a Roger Varian yard who are in good order.
The highest drawn horse in the race is David Menuisier’s Migration, another consistent contender who’ll likely enjoy softer conditions. He was narrowly beaten by Modern News when last seen at Newbury, giving him 1lbs. The six-year-old is quite lightly raced and does well over a mile.
Group Three winning filly Bashkirova is the shortest-priced runner of the William Haggas trio, but will need to improve on her last two runs to make the frame. Stablemate Sweet Believer has 5lbs claimer Adam Farragher onboard making her second run of the season following a second-placed finish behind Bayside Boy at Sandown last month.
Last year’s runner-up Symbolize was touched off by Aldaary twelve months ago, and whilst he hasn’t been in great form this season, he is capable of bouncing back under 5lbs claimer Callum Hutchinson for Andrew Balding.
John Quinn’s Safe Voyage was excellent in defeat at Leopardstown, flying home only to be narrowly beaten by the determined I’m A Gambler. Soft ground will suit the nine-year-old, but he may have been primed for his Irish appearance and was disappointing in his follow up race here recently. Off a mark of 99 he could find it tough at this stage in his career.
Perotto didn’t get the run of things at Newmarket recently and is 3lbs lower here but may prefer a sounder surface. He is one to watch and should be winning a race in the near future, but this may be out of his reach.
At a big price Irish-raider Casanova is an interesting contender for Adrian McGuinness. The six-year-old gelding often outruns his odds and has run well off a mark of 99 this season. It would be no surprise to see him sneak into the places, but he isn’t always on song and is a risky selection on that basis.
1:25pm – Long Distance Cup (Group 2)
Coltrane 10/1 (EW) – Andrew Balding, David Probert
2:00pm – Sprint Stakes (Group 1)
Tenebrism 14/1 (EW) – A P O’Brien, Ryan Moore
2:40pm – Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1)
Emily Upjohn 4/1 – John & Thady Gosden, Frankie Dettori
3:20pm – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)
Inspiral 11/10 – John & Thady Gosden, Frankie Dettori
4:00pm – Champion Stakes (Group 1)
Baaeed 1/4 – William Haggas, Jim Crowley
4:40pm Balmoral Handicap (Class 2)
Casanova 40/1 (EW) – Adrian McGuinness, Adam Caffrey (7)
THE CONDITIONAL 