Katie Midwinter (04/11/22)
Breeders’ Cup, Keeneland – November, 2022
The Breeders’ Cup returns to Keeneland as the highly-anticipated meeting gets underway with the ‘Future Stars Friday’ five-race card, providing juveniles with their opportunity to shine on the world stage. On Saturday’s card nine World Champions will be crowned, with a number of superstars attempting to claim prestigious prizes in highly-competitive contests.
The world’s highest rated racehorse, Flightline, will try to extend his impressive unbeaten run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, run over 1m2f, facing opponents such as Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike. The dirt contest worth $6,000,000 is the final race of what promises to be an exceptional two-day card at the American track, and there is sure to be plenty of top-class action worth savouring for fans of the sport.
It is a perfect advertisement for horse racing as some of the best equine athletes in the world take each other on in dramatic, high-octane fashion. Below I provide an in-depth preview of the main turf races on Saturday’s card that includes many British and Irish-trained horses lining up for top yards.
4:29pm – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
The first turf race on the Breeders’ Cup Saturday card is the Grade One Turf Sprint, run over 5½f. Wesley Ward’s star sprinter Golden Pal is unbeaten on home ground since finishing second on debut at Gulfstream Park in 2020. He has recorded eight wins since, including a Grade One success when victorious in this contest last year.
All three defeats suffered since his first appearance have been on British soil, with the Uncle Mo colt not quite showing his true ability when travelling abroad. He is the warm favourite to retain his crown here, at a course he has enjoyed plenty of wins at in the past, including when seen winning a Grade Two here last month where he beat Artemus Citylimits by a length-and-a-half.
Ward’s second representative is four-year-old filly Campanelle, set to be ridden by Frankie Dettori. The daughter of Kodiac gave a good account of herself in the Platinum Jubilee Stakes, finishing third in a dead-heat with Artorius, behind Godolphin pair Naval Crown and Creative Force with Highfield Princess in sixth. She has been performing consistently well this season and is one to consider.
Arrest Me Red also represents the Ward yard, but has to reverse form with a few of his rivals. He did beat Bran to win a Grade Two at Churchill Downs in May, but more is needed.
Bran is a Grade Two winner who beat Atermus Citylimits and Arrest Me Red when last seen in September. His form ties in closely with a couple of his rivals, but the aforementioned trio all appear to have plenty to find in this company.
John Quinn’s star mare Highfield Princess has been in exceptional form since her Royal Ascot appearance, continuing to defy expectations by winning Group One races in France, England and Ireland. It took her five attempts to break her maiden in a handicap in Ayr back in 2020 but she has since soared from lower class races to the highest level, earning herself a career-high rating of 120.
This will be an incredibly tough task but she is in the best form of her life and keeps getting better. It would perhaps be unwise to oppose this talented and popular mare.
Another formidable contender in the field is Creative Force, a consistent horse who is likely to feature at the finish. He finished ahead of Highfield Princess at Ascot, as mentioned, and certainly has each-way claims but may be found wanting with a couple of his rivals in this competitive field.
Stablemate Naval Crown has been out of sorts in recent runs, and finished eleventh of twelve as beaten favourite at Haydock in early September.
It is worth considering that a busy season may have taken its toll on the Dubawi colt but if he is anywhere near the level he was in June when winning the aforementioned Group One sprint at Ascot at odds of 33/1, he could be good enough to make the frame at a big price once again. Others are more reliable, but the four-year-old possesses plenty of speed and is more than capable on his day.
Kevin Ryan’s tough gelding Emaraaty Ana chased home Minzaal in the Group One Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock and finished fourth in this contest last year, five-lengths behind the winner, Golden Pal. Ryan Moore takes the ride onboard the six-year-old who could be past his best but is another with each-way claims if running to form.
A dual Grade One-winner this term, Casa Creed finished fifth over a mile when last seen and drops back in trip this time out. He has featured in the Breeders’ Cup Mile twice, failing to be competitive on both occasions.
This shorter trip may provide him with a better chance of making the frame and he is certainly a classy type. He finished quarter-of-a-length behind Naval Crown in a Meydan Group One earlier this year, but he has never won at the track which could be a cause for concern.
David Loughnane’s Go Bears Go is one of two three-year-olds in the field receiving the weight for age allowance. He was beaten by Minzaal when receiving 2lbs in the Group Three Hackwood Stakes, and based on that form he is in with a chance.
The son of Kodi Bear recorded a Group Three win of his own this season with success in the Phoenix Sprint Stakes at the Curragh but he has looked out of his depth in top-class company since and is exposed. He finished second in the Juvenile Turf Sprint in last year’s Breeders’ Cup but this is a big step up and may be a step too far at this stage in his career.
Three-year-old filly Flotus will line up in the hands of Hollie Doyle receiving all of the allowances. The stable has been performing well of late, recording a 33% strike rate in recent weeks. Simon & Ed Crisford’s Starspangledbanner filly does have a lot to find and she is available at a huge price.
Cazadero was victorious in a Grade Two last time out at Woodbine but appears to have a tough assignment from a wide draw here, whilst five-year-old mare Caravel also has a bit to find but did record a Grade Three win at the track last month.
VERDICT:
Sprint races are often tough to predict, but this is an exceptional field of equine athletes and there are a number of horses capable of claiming the prize if running to the best of their ability. There are some out of form sprinters who could put in a good performance if things go their way during the race, and NAVAL CROWN appears to be a big price at 25/1 for an in-form Charlie Appleby yard. Stablemate Creative Force is the choice of William Buick and may be the most reliable of the pair, but if Naval Crown is able to reproduce his best form, he is a big player.
CASA CREED is a classy performer and the drop in trip may prove to be a genius move by trainer William Mott. Best priced at 16/1 he is capable of making the frame but doesn’t have the best of draws which could cause him some problems.
That leaves GOLDEN PAL and HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, both of whom appear the ones to beat. If Highfield Princess was to claim the plaudits it would be a fairytale story for connections, and she will have plenty of supporters cheering her on come Saturday. The heart believes she could do it, but the head says it’s perhaps wise to stick with the proven, unbeaten in the USA, reigning champion, Golden Pal, who could be too good once again.
Emaaraty Ana is one who could run a big race for Kevin Ryan but may have missed his chance to claim the prize.
PREDICTION:
- Golden Pal
- Highfield Princess
- Casa Creed
5:50pm – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1)
John & Thady Gosden’s three-year-old filly Nashwa has developed an exceptional partnership with Hollie Doyle this season, and provided her jockey with her first Classic winner when the pair were victorious in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly in June.
Prior to that winning performance, the Frankel filly finished a respectable third in the Oaks at Epsom, showing plenty of determination to stay on despite perhaps lacking the stamina required to excel over 1m4f at the top level. At Longchamp in the Prix de l’Opera last month, she could only manage second, just held by outsider Place Du Carrousel, the shock winner on the day.
Joseph O’Brien’s Above The Curve finished third at Longchamp and appears the biggest threat to market leader Nashwa in this extended 1m1f contest. Top jockey John Velazquez takes the ride aboard the US-bred American Pharoah filly who appears to have an excellent chance from stall 4. She has performed consistently well in her career to date and being by a Breeders’ Cup Classic-winning stallion is certainly a positive as she makes her US debut.
Tuesday is another Classic winner in the field, one of two representatives for Aidan O’Brien. She isn’t without a chance, but the trip could be slightly shorter than ideal and she does have to bounce back following a number of below par performances.
One thing in her favour is her experience. She has been running in competitive races against formidable opponents, including colts, and she will have learnt plenty during her three-year-old campaign.
Her pedigree is impressive, being by Galileo out of dual Group One-winning mare Lillie Langtry, and the better ground at the track could allow her to give a better showing this time around.
Stablemate Toy won a Listed contest when last seen at Naas but has appeared exposed in previous runs and would need a career-best performance to prevail. Wayne Lordan rides the yard’s expected second string.
Chad Brown has won this race on four occasions, most recently with Sistercharlie in 2018. He is the most-winning trainer of the contest and saddles three contenders in this year’s renewal in an attempt to add another success to his impressive record. Four-year-old Dubawi filly In Italian is the shortest-priced of the trio, coming into the race following back-to-back Grade One wins.
Virginia Joy is one of the more experienced runners in the race, dropping back in trip. She has been running over further distances this season with her pedigree suggesting middle-distance trips should be her optimum.
However, she did win over an extended 7f for former trainer Jens Hirschberger when running in Germany, and has won over 1m2f and 1m3f on firm ground in the USA, indicating she perhaps possesses the speed required over the shorter distances which could bring her into calculations.
Stablemate Rougir gained a Grade One success in her last run, narrowly beating Flirting Bridge at Woodbine, with Fev Rover, formerly with Richard Fahey, in third. It was quite a messy race, with a number of runners short of room and favourite Moira hampering Lemista and subsequently being disqualified and demoted to eighth from second.
Kevin Attard’s filly also lines up here but has a wide draw to overcome and will need to reverse form with Rougir. The mount of Frankie Dettori here, Moira was short of room at Woodbine, and did well to run on to second before being demoted and she is available at a big price considering her good run of form, and her success in the Woodbine Oaks and Queen’s Plate Stakes this season.
Other runners include James Ferguson’s Mise En Scene, a Listed runner-up when last seen who will need to improve plenty to make the frame but did win a Group Three as a juvenile, finishing ahead of Prosperous Voyage, and may enjoy the quick conditions. Roger Attfield’s Lady Speightspeare is attempting second Grade One success as she chases a five-timer, drawn in stall 1.
Going To Vegas is a tough opponent on her day and often runs well. Her trainer Philip D’Amato is currently performing at a 36% strike rate. By two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile-winning Goldencents she could perhaps be overlooked in the market, and may be a mare capable of outrunning her odds.
Family Way needs to reverse form with Going To Vegas on their last run in the Rodeo Drive Stakes at Santa Anita, but she has had the beating of a number of her shorter-priced rivals in the field this season, and is another contender capable of outrunning her huge odds.
VERDICT:
This is an excellent chance for British and Irish trainers to land a Breeders’ Cup success this year. NASHWA will be difficult to beat over this trip and the draw, from stall 3, shouldn’t cause too many problems given that Hollie Doyle can break well with her mount. Tuesday must be respected but may lack the speed required to beat the favourite, and Joseph O’Brien’s ABOVE THE CURVE appears to be Nashwa’s biggest threat. VIRGINIA JOY may be the best of the Chad Brown trio and could be overpriced at 16/1, whilst MOIRA is one to consider but must overcome a wide draw.
PREDICTION:
- Nashwa
- Above The Curve
- Virginia Joy
7:10pm – Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1)
French 2000 Guineas winner Modern Games won the Juvenile Turf over a mile last year at Del Mar, and is the warm favourite to land a second Breeders’ Cup success in this prestigious race. The Appleby yard is in excellent form and this Dubawi colt has previous experience in North America, which should hold him in good stead.
He won the Woodbine Mile Stakes in September, beating Ivar by over five-lengths, with Shirl’s Speight, who has plenty to find with the market leader, in fourth. Connections won this contest last year with Space Blues, and Modern Games is a worthy favourite, capable of putting in a good performance to claim the prize.
Ralph Beckett’s Kinross has been in exceptional form this season but must overcome a wide draw from stall 13, which could scupper his chances if unable to gain a prominent position early on.
The shorter trip of 7f has appeared to be his optimum, but he has previously been seen to great effect over a mile and showed his versatility to claim the Sprint Stakes at Ascot recently, when he pulled clear of the field over 6f, showing a tremendous turn of foot. Stepping back up to a mile shouldn’t be a problem as he has a good combination of speed and stamina, but the draw is a concern.
Five-year-old mare Dreamloper landed a Group One on her last outing in the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp, beating Order Of Australia by five-and-a-half-lengths. She beat an impressive field of horses there but doesn’t always give the greatest showing of herself and can be inconsistent.
If she is able to demonstrate the best of her ability, she is capable of making the frame for Ed Walker in the hands of Kieran Shoemark.
Todd Pletcher’s Annapolis has been in good form this season, winning three of five races, but is another who must overcome a wide draw. The three-year-old colt by War Front prepared well for this challenge by beating Brazilian-bred Ivar and Order Of Australia to win a Group One at this track last month.
Former champion Order Of Australia led home a Ballydoyle 1-2-3 when he was a shock winner of this race in 2020. Aidan O’Brien’s sole representative in this year’s field is perhaps now past his best, and will need to show masses of improvement to regain his crown, but is susceptible to providing a surprise.
Regal Glory was a beaten favourite when last seen here and will need to improve on that performance to be competitive this time, but she has recorded two Grade One wins this season and could be dangerous.
Francis-Henri Graffard-trained Malavath is the only French representative in the Breeders’ Cup this year. She has been running on easier ground recently and all wins to date have come on softer ground, but she did finish half-a-length second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf race twelve months ago on ground described as firm.
The Mehmas filly has plenty of speed from her sire, but also has stamina in her dam’s pedigree being by New Approach. The trip is a slight question mark as she is yet to prove she stays well enough at this level as a three-year-old.
Charles Hills’ Pogo is drawn lowest of all in stall 1. The likable six-year-old has run in many competitive races this season, and deserves to take his chance. He is most effective over a mile and is a tough competitor.
Chad Brown saddles top-class performer Domestic Spending, who will have to overcome the widest draw off a 448-day layoff if he is to write his name in the history books. He has won three of his four Grade One assignments to date, failing only when narrowly beaten at Arlington Park during the summer of last season.
Absent since, the five-year-old Kingman gelding was due to line up in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf only for him to suffer a soft tissue injury that has kept him off the track. He is back in trip but is thought of as a “special horse”, and will have to be just that if he is to be victorious on Saturday.
Michael McCarthy’s Smooth Like Strait often runs well and has excellent each-way claims but often finds one better, finishing second on six of his last seven starts. This an extremely competitive renewal and he may find a couple of rivals too strong on this occasion.
John Shirreffs’ four-year-old colt Beyond Brilliant has won two Grade Two races this season, including over a mile last time out, but he has run below par on occasions and more is needed.
Seven-year-old King Cause is the oldest in the field and has a wide draw to overcome. Caio Caramori’s Front Run The Fed and George R Arnold II’s Gear Jockey are currently reserves for the race.
VERDICT:
KINROSS was incredibly impressive at Ascot last time out and although he has a wide draw to overcome, he has continued to surprise this season and is the one to beat in this field. MODERN GAMES deserves respect and it would be no surprise to see him win, but this is a tough field and he will need to produce his best. DOMESTIC SPENDING returns after a lengthy layoff but is a talented horse that may possess that touch of class that will allow him to be competitive. It will be a huge ask for him to return to winning ways instantly, but connections must believe he is ready for the challenge and deserves to take this chance. SMOOTH LIKE STRAIT is a big price considering his consistency, and certainly has each-way claims, whilst the brave POGO could outrun his odds for his connections in the hands of James Doyle.
PREDICTION:
- Kinross
- Domestic Spending
- Modern Games
8:40pm – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1)
Trainer Charlie Appleby was victorious in this contest last year as he saddled Yibir to victory in the mile-and-a-half Grade One race. He is represented with two lively chances this time around, with the market speaking positively in the favour of both Nations Pride and Rebel’s Romance.
The former is the mount of William Buick and currently heads the betting following back-to-back wins across the pond. Last time out he recorded his first success over this trip as he easily strode to victory under Frankie Dettori in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes.
This is more competitive however, and he has struggled under pressure in the past when failing to feature in the Epsom Derby in June. His North America form puts him in with a great chance, but there are others in the field capable of posing a threat.
Stablemate Rebel’s Romance recorded four successive wins as he landed his second Group One in Cologne when last seen. The trip will suit, and the yard is in excellent form, but he will need to keep improving if he is to claim the plaudits.
War Like Goddess finished third in last year’s Filly & Mare Turf at Del Mar. She is three from four this term and was last seen winning the Grade One Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes in fine fashion, beating five-year-old gelding Bye Bye Melvin by almost three-lengths.
There is plenty to like about the talented mare, who has been exceptional since making her debut last year and there could be even more to come from her.
Clarehaven Stables stalwart Mishriff makes his final racecourse start, partnered by Dettori for the first time in over two years. He has been an incredible horse for his connections, and makes his final start before being retired to stud, set to stand as a stallion in France next year.
He has won the French Derby, Saudi Cup and International Stakes, among other high-class races, and a Breeders’ Cup win would cap off an extraordinary career in a manner fit for a remarkable horse.
The 1m4f trip slightly tests his stamina, and he is perhaps better equipped to run over a mile-and-a-quarter, yet he did win the Dubai Sheema Classic over a mile-and-a-half, and he is capable of being victorious over the trip once again on a good surface.
The five-year-old must be respected as the class of the field but coming from stall 11 could make life difficult. He sports first-time blinkers for trainers John & Thady Gosden as he bows out at Keeneland.
Aidan O’Brien’s Stone Age went off 7/2 for this year’s Derby but couldn’t handle the undulating nature of the track at Epsom and didn’t appear to stay the trip. He appears out of his depth here, and despite the quick ground perhaps allowing him to see out the mile-and-a-half, he may struggle to quick as effectively as some of his rivals in the closing stages.
Stablemate Broome finished second in this race last year when ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr, who partners him once again, but it’s difficult to see him going one better this time out as a six-year-old who has been exposed in top-class races this season.
He does remain a useful performer however, who sees out the trip well, and it would be no surprise to see him bounce back to enter calculations.
Highland Chief has performed well on occasions since making the switch to the US from England. He recorded a Grade One win at Belmont Park in May and was last seen winning the Sycamore Stakes, beating a field that included Channel Maker and Red Knight. At his best he could be dangerous, but the wide draw doesn’t help his cause.
William Mott’s eight-year-old Channel Maker has a bit to find on his last Keeneland performance and has struggled in Grade One contests this season. He is the rank outsider of the field and is unlikely to make the frame but he has run well in the last two renewals of the race, finishing in third and fifth respectively, outrunning his odds on both occasions.
The aforementioned Red Knight has only been seen three times this season, winning two races including a Grade Two over this trip. He didn’t get the easiest of trips around at Keeneland last time out, coming from the rear of the field and having to be pulled out wide to mount his challenge, running on well but too late to trouble the winner, Highland Chief.
Gold Phoenix narrowly beat Master Piece when the pair last met and it’ll be interesting to see which horse comes out on top this time out, however they’re both likely to find this contest a step too far. Brazilian colt Nautilus was a Group One winner of the Grande Prêmio Brasil at Gavea when last seen, but this will be much more competitive and he is unproven on better ground.
VERDICT:
On paper this appears to be one of the more open contests on the card. The Godolphin pair are seemingly well-fancied at the head of the market, and either could be capable of claiming the plaudits. However, MISHRIFF brings the best form into the race and is arguably the classiest of the field. What he has achieved in his career to date is impressive and if he is able to produce a good performance he is in with a chance. The trip is a slight concern as he may be better over a shorter trip, but the good ground will allow him to see the 1m4f out well enough to be in contention. A steady pace will likely benefit him, and improve his chances as it will allow him to use his speed effectively in the closing stages.
RED KNIGHT at odds of 40/1 represents exceptional value from an each-way perspective as, barring his last run, he has recorded two wins this season and has previously held his own in Graded company. His last run is worth forgiving as he didn’t get the run of the race, and he could be one that will finish strongly and chase down some of his rivals in the straight, perhaps well enough to claim a placed finish.
WAR LIKE GODDESS receives the allowance as a mare who has been consistent in her career so far. She always gives a good account of herself and is a reliable each-way selection and likely to be in contention late on.
PREDICITON:
- Mishriff
- Red Knight
- War Like Goddess
The rest of the card features a number of races run on the dirt, with many of North America’s best horses set to take each other on. The opening race is the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, run over 7f. Impressive filly Goodnight Olive is the favourite to provide trainer Chad Brown with a winner in the first race on the card, but will face stiff opposition from the experienced Ce Ce as well as three-year-old Echo Zulu.
The Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile will be run at 5:10pm, with Cody’s Wish heading the market. The Curlin colt, owned by Godolphin, would be a popular winner and prepared well for the challenge by winning the Forego Stakes at Saratoga in August. It appears to be an open race, however, with many in the field capable of posing a threat.
Jackie’s Warrior is the odds-on favourite in the fifth race on the card, the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. The four-year-old colt is a force to be reckoned with but was surprisingly beaten by Cody’s Wish in his last outing and is now less convincing. The drop back in trip should allow him to assert his dominance once again in this division but he could be slightly more vulnerable this time out and there is plenty of each-way value in the field.
The Breeders’ Cup Distaff field is headed by three-year-old filly Nest, bidding for her fourth successive win. Stablemate Malathaat is her closest market rival and likely her biggest threat, with trainer Todd Pletcher holding a strong hand in the contest. Search Results must reverse form with Malathaat but shouldn’t be completely ruled out, whilst Clairiere and Society are both capable of being competitive too in the penultimate dirt race of the meeting.
The final race of the two-day card is the valuable Breeders’ Cup Classic. Superstar Flightline sets the standard and will be exceptionally difficult to beat in the 1m2f contest. The four-year-old colt, trained by John Sadler, is set to defend his unbeaten record, having won all of his five races so far.
The son of Tapit gained a Timeform rating of 143, catapulting him to the top of the current global rankings, clear of 137-rated Baaeed, with a demolition of Dubai World Cup winner Country Grammer in the Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar. Flightline’s performance was simply breath-taking, a nineteen-and-a-quarter-length victory in a Grade One against some respected top-level opponents.
The colt suffered an injury as a juvenile, keeping him off the track until April 2021, but he has since been flawless and fans at Keeneland will be expecting a history-making performance on Saturday, as they witness perhaps one of the greatest of all-time grace the dirt track in their presence.
Epicenter, Life Is Good and Hot Rod Charlie would all be capable of claiming the prize in other renewals, all top-class horses in their own right, they will likely fall too short lining up against Sadler’s champion, who looks set to continue his dominance and impeccable record.
THE CONDITIONAL 