Katie Midwinter (13/01/23)
KEMPTON PARK
1:30pm – Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Paul Nicholls has been in excellent form of late, performing at a 36% win-rate in recent weeks, and saddles class of the field, Enrilo, in this contest.
The gelding is making his second appearance following wind surgery but suffered a hefty fall when last seen at Wincanton and faces a tough task off top weight with ground conditions likely to be incredibly testing at Kempton.
Annsam is a capable performer on his day and is only 1lbs higher than his last winning mark over fences. Evan Williams’ eight-year-old hasn’t been at his best in two Grade Three Handicaps this season, but a drop in class may allow him to be more competitive.
Another Welsh representative in the field is Christian Williams’ Kitty’s Light, a likable horse who has struggled to find his form so far this season. The ground is unlikely to suit and he’ll likely be more effective off a lower mark in handicaps towards the end of the season, when there are better ground conditions.
Tile Tapper has already been well-backed from 5/1 into 11/4 for trainer Chris Honour. He was given a 1lbs rise for his second behind Remastered in a staying race at the track over the festive period and has proved he is able to hold his own in similar contests.
The market support will surely encourage potential backers of the consistent horse who has form on heavy ground and should handle conditions.
Percussion is one to consider for an in-form Laura Morgan yard. He is another reliable type that could be improving and a mark of 130 should allow him to be competitive in this field.
2:05pm – Silviniaco Conti Chase (Grade 2)
This year’s Silviniaco Conti Chase has attracted six interesting runners. Paul Nicholls has won two of the past three renewals, with the mighty Frodon in 2020 and the wonderful Master Tommytucker the following year.
He saddles two lively chances this time around in favourite Pic D’Orhy and Saint Calvados. The former is a progressive horse who won a Grade Two over course and distance as a novice and is the one to beat.
Saint Calvados, making his second start for new owner, and jockey, David Maxwell, was well-beaten by Coole Cody in a match race on his last outing at Ascot, having looked the likely winner before turning for home.
Maxwell’s mount found little under pressure and the brave Coole Cody managed to rally well enough to pass his rival in the home straight. It’s likely he’ll improve with more runners in the field and will be able to gain cover as he raced freely at Ascot, struggling to settle and made the running.
He isn’t guaranteed to reverse form however, and Coole Cody is certainly one to keep in mind. The twelve-year-old has become a fan favourite with his performances, more often than not at Cheltenham, and often defies the odds.
The biggest threat to the favourite could be Paint The Dream, who put in an excellent performance when carrying top-weight to victory at Newbury in November over a similar trip. He gave plenty of weight away to his rivals but won easily.
An extremely likable horse, he often gains a prominent position in his races but was held up last time out and it’ll be interesting to see which tactics they choose to adopt this time.
Angels Breath makes his racecourse return following a 1121-day absence. The intriguing runner makes his debut for Sam Thomas following a successful period at Nicky Henderson’s yard. He showed plenty of promise as a novice but may well need the run after such a lengthy lay-off.
2:40pm – Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
There are a number of horses worthy of making the shortlist in this competitive maximum field of twenty runners. Currently vying for favouritism is Outlaw Peter, a horse with a decent chance if able to cope with ground conditions.
The course and distance winner finished second to Three Stripe Life in a bumper in his only run on heavy ground, but is yet to race on ground worse than good to soft over obstacles. He made light work of his opposition at Exeter when last seen following a placed effort in a Grade Two and is one to watch on handicap debut.
Charles Byrnes’ Green Glory won a handicap at Leopardstown recently and could still be fairly well-handicapped, running off a mark of 127 with 5lbs claimer Philip Byrnes onboard.
Dubrovnik Harry appears to have a great chance in his second run after a wind operation, with the yard in great form.
His run in defeat at Sandown last March when beaten by Complete Unknown in a Grade Three Handicap has worked out well and he did beat a number of good horses, including Thunder Rock and Our Jet. He is lightly-raced, won his maiden on heavy ground and has placed twice on soft, therefore with plenty in his favour he should be competitive.
At a bigger price Ben Pauling’s Quinta Do Mar is an interesting contender. The yard has been performing exceptionally well and the horse should be better this time out than when he ran in this contest last year.
Twelve months ago he fell at the last when held by the eventual winner, but in the process of running a big race and competing for third-place. He runs off the same mark of 135 but should have shown plenty of improvement since and has been laid out for this race.
WARWICK
1:50pm – Hampton Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
A small but select field lines up in this Grade Two race for novices. Four runners participate, with warm favourite Complete Unknown heading the field. He appeared at Haydock on his seasonal reappearance, finishing fifth over hurdles in a slightly disappointing performance.
The gelding may have needed the run and won his following race at Ffos Las on chase debut. He won a bumper on heavy ground when trained by Jonathan Fogarty, beating Willie Mullins’ Deploy The Getaway, suggesting the easier conditions at Warwick shouldn’t be a problem.
Galia Des Liteaux has already been beaten twice by the favourite over staying trips and seems unlikely to be able to reverse form. She is a lovely looking mare who coped well with conditions when winning on heavy ground at Bangor-On-Dee, but that was over a trip of 2m1½f and over this trip she may struggle to compete with Complete Unknown.
Gordon Elliott sends over Grade Three winner The Goffer, rated 4lbs higher than the favourite, but with plenty to do to reverse form when finishing over twenty-two-lengths behind him at Perth last season.
Outsider of the field Gentleman At Arms has coped with softer ground in the past, therefore shouldn’t be discounted on the state of conditions. He is a big price considering he was second in a Grade One at Aintree in April, but he has been disappointing since and may be better suited to handicaps off a lower mark further down the line.
2:25pm – Leamington Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
The top three in the market are all closely matched in the 2m5f contest. Knowsley Road is currently shading favouritism in the market as he attempts four successive wins.
A narrow defeat to Astronomic View in a bumper twelve months ago remains his only defeat under rules to date and, with the yard sending out plenty of winners in recent weeks, the Flemensfirth gelding has to be considered.
Course and distance winner Ginny’s Destiny was victorious at the rain-softened track when last seen, recording an eight-and-a-half-length success over Mexico.
Prior to that run he had been well beaten by Mexico at Aintree and, although 8lbs separate the pair on ratings, the difference in price is perhaps slightly big. It is worth noting that Ginny’s Destiny did race keenly at the Liverpool track and has shown significant improvement when able to settle and relax in his races.
Grey Dawning was the subject of a successful gamble when winning a handicap at Kempton over the festive period. He narrowly prevailed over the impressive Bourbali who outran his odds of 40/1 to get within a length-and-a-half of the well-handicapped winner at the line.
Dan Skelton’s gelding was subsequently given a rise of 6lbs in ratings, giving him a mark of 129, and may be capable of showing further development.
The aforementioned Mexico is the outsider of the field representing an in-form Stuart Edmunds yard. He has work to do to reverse form with Ginny’s Destiny when the pair last met, but has beaten him in the past and has some snippets of good form in a number of his races to date.
He beat Soldier Of Destiny convincingly last time out, a 122-rated horse over hurdles with a chase rating of 135. As a youngster Mexico beat now 133-rated chaser Nothin To Ask and there could be more to come from him. However, with three lively contenders at the head of the market and only seven runners in the race, an each-way bet on the outsider is slightly less appealing.
3:00pm – Classic Chase (Grade 3 Handicap)
The Classic Chase is a stiff staying test run over 3m5f for handicappers who often have their sights set on Aintree in April. Last year’s renewal was won by Emma Lavelle’s strong travelling Eclair Surf, who sadly didn’t get the opportunity to show the full scale of his ability in the showpiece event.
In 2017 it was famously won by Lucinda Russell’s champion One For Arthur, who became the second horse trained in Scotland to win Aintree’s Grand National, emulating Rubstic’s 1979 success.
On only one occasion has a horse carried upward of 11st 7lbs to victory, in 2012 when Colin Tizzard saddled Hey Big Spender carrying 11st 12lbs.
Threeunderthrufive will face a tough task off a top-weight of 12st as he puts his Grand National credentials to the test. The dual Grade Two winner has course form and is a winner on soft but is yet to be faced with the heavy conditions that are expected at Warwick on Saturday.
He is also unexposed over the trip and, although he is a strong stayer and is a sound jumper, he may find this too tough a test of stamina in such testing conditions carrying a hefty weight.
Mr Incredible makes the trip across the Irish Sea for Willie Mullins with jockey Brian Hayes taking the ride. He isn’t the most straightforward horse and has failed to complete in his last two runs, being pulled-up at Tramore in his last run for Henry De Bromhead before being brought down at Leopardstown on debut for new yard.
In his penultimate appearance for his former trainer he refused to race and, whilst his recent results are cause for concern, he clearly possesses ability as he had performed well in his first four races under rules.
The form of his point-to-point race has worked out well, producing a number of winners and it would be no surprise to see him enter the winners’ enclosure at Warwick for his master trainer.
Richard Hobson’s strong stayer Lord Du Mesnil will relish the deteriorating ground and needs soft or worse ground to be seen to the best of his ability.
He was underestimated at Bangor-On-Dee when sent off at odds of 33/1 when rated 145, 4lbs lower than his last winning mark. His second to Le Milos is a good formline and he is only 1lbs higher this time around, putting him well in contention with conditions to suit.
An intriguing runner is Charlie Longsdon’s Guetapan Collonges who is out of broodmare Saturne Collonges, a full-sister to 2012 Grand National winner Neptune Collonges. With plenty of stamina in his pedigree, the progressive seven-year-old is an exciting staying prospect.
He has won three of his last four starts, failing only when falling in a match race at Sedgefield last March. This is a significant step up in class, but he is unexposed and carries a low weight which could play a factor in this substantial test of stamina.
It is a quick turnaround for Grumpy Charley following a handicap win at Newbury on New Year’s Eve in which he excelled on soft ground carrying a hefty weight. He is up 6lbs for that success, running off a mark of 141. Former Welsh Grand National winner Iwilldoit is another proven mud-lover, but hasn’t been seen since his Chepstow victory and may need the run.
Commodore was an emphatic winner of a Grade Three Handicap at Cheltenham over a year ago when beating a field including Mister Fogpatches, Santini and Enrilo. He finished twelfth in the Grand National in his following run and was disappointing at Prestbury Park on seasonal reappearance.
A ease of only 1lbs by the handicapper may not be enough to see him record a victory here and he may be one to consider when running off a lower mark in future.
Notachance will attempt to regain his crown and become the first dual winner of the contest, running off a mark of 130, 9lbs lower than when winning in 2021. He has a bit to find with Lord Du Mesnil based on his last run at Bangor-On-Dee and may find this slightly too competitive.
3:35pm – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Ashtown Lad is fancied to record back-to-back wins following his impressive success in the Becher Chase at Aintree. He is 6lbs higher here but remains of interest and will cope with ground conditions.
Nicky Henderson saddles two runners in the form of second favourite The Bomber Liston and elder statesman On The Blind Side. The latter is rated 141 with 10lbs claimer Sean O’Briain onboard and has never run off such a low mark.
If he retains any of the ability he has previously shown he is being given every chance to show a revival at the weights.
Sire Du Berlais is an excellent horse at his best, but running off top-weight in undesirable conditions could put the race beyond his reach. Perhaps the biggest threat to the favourite is another Irish-raider in the form of Ronald Pump.
Ciaran Murphy’s representative was a beaten favourite when last seen on yard debut, but has previously run well behind Honeysuckle and has coped with heavy ground. He rarely wins, often bumping into one or two runners who perform better on the day, but has seen his rating rise to 145, 9lbs higher than his last winning mark, despite not finishing first past the post too often.
SELECTIONS:
1:50pm Warwick
Complete Unknown 6/5 – Paul Nicholls, Lorcan Williams
2:40pm Kempton
Dubrovnik Harry 8/1 – Harry Fry, Bryan Carver
&
Quinta Do Mar 14/1 (EW) – Ben Pauling, Kielan Woods
3:00pm Warwick
Lord Du Mesnil 15/2 (EW) – Richard Hobson, Paul O’Brien
THE CONDITIONAL 