Katie Midwinter (03/02/23)
LEOPARDSTOWN
1:20pm – Novice Hurdle (Grade 1)
The opening race of the high-quality meeting gets off to an exciting start with an intriguing hurdling test for novices on the card at 1:20pm.
Barry Connell’s Good Land was impressive when winning his maiden here over the festive period following an unlucky unseating of his rider on hurdling debut. The son of Blue Bresil is less exposed than some others in this field and does appear the one to beat.
His closest market rival is the shortest-price of the Willie Mullins runners, Quais De Paris who is the mount of Paul Townend. He is largely an unknown quantity, having only been seen once for his new yard following a move from France.
After declarations on Thursday, the gelding has received plenty of market support, likely due to Townend favouring the five-year-old ahead of Grangeclare West.
Mullins apparent second string, Grangeclare West, won his maiden hurdle at Navan in November following a lengthy lay-off. He was a disappointing fifth at Naas last time out when sent off as 15/8 favourite, but the omitted hurdles may not have helped his cause and he has shaped as though he’d improve over further.
The post-race report noted that he was blowing hard after finishing and had been coughing. It is cause of concern that perhaps he may have some recurring issues, but if he is fit and ready for this race then at his best he is worthy of being in consideration.
Sandor Clegane was a distant seventh in the Champion I.N.H Flat Race at Punchestown, before finishing second to Three Card Brag in his penultimate start. He was last seen winning his maiden hurdle at a canter and looks to be an improving type for Paul Nolan.
Cheltenham Champion Bumper runner-up American Mike is yet to live up to his big reputation and expected potential. He did win his hurdling debut at Down Royal but left much to be desired with his jumping technique and was disappointing on his following run.
His run at Navan when last seen when beaten eight-lengths by Dawn Rising may not be bad form, as the eventual winner finished third in the Lawlor’s Of Naas Grade One last month. This Gordon Elliot-trained son of Mahler is learning on the job and may be worth giving another chance to as he clearly has talent.
There is a British representative in the field in the form of Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Weveallbeencaught. It’s great to see connections take a chance with him in this race and he does appear to be at the top table in regards to novice hurdlers of the UK, but he may find this too hot a contest. There’s plenty of quality in this field but he does look an exciting prospect for the yard and is one with a lot of potential.
Prediction:
- Good Land
- Grangeclare West
- American Mike
1:55pm – Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
The second race on the card is dominated by Willie Mullins entries, with six of the eight declared residing at Closutton.
Whilst the Triumph Hurdle antepost favourite, unbeaten filly Lossiemouth, looks incredibly difficult to beat and is the odds-on favourite to land this contest, there may be some each-way value in the field.
Gala Marceau finished seven-and-a-half-lengths behind Lossiemouth at Leopardstown and a reversal in form is unlikely. Whilst she could be the best of the rest, she is slightly short in the market and there could be other unexposed types at bigger prices capable of showing the improvement required to land a placed finish.
The juveniles lining up are very inexperienced and sometimes it’s easy to overlook a horse who has perhaps been warming to the task of hurdling in previous runs. Mullins may not have a clean sweep in the race, despite the odds suggesting he will, and Henry de Bromhead could be able to spoil the party and claim a slice of the prize money with his new recruit, Ascending.
The four-year-old gelding was formerly with Clive Cox on the Flat and was beaten in his only hurdling start by Tekao, who lines up against him once again. Tekao himself has excellent each-way claims in this field, and the price of 14/1 about the course and distance winner is very enticing.
Ascending could be much better this time out and was a close second to a promising juvenile in Perseus Way, who has placed in two Grade Two races, when the pair met at Newbury over 1m2f in the autumn.
The form of Perseus Way when finishing third behind Comfort Zone and Dixon Cove at Chepstow has worked out well, and perhaps Ascending could follow suit and be competitive in these types of races.
Prediction:
- Lossiemouth
- Tekao
- Ascending
2:30pm – Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade 1)
An eight-runner field stacked with quality heads to post for the Irish Arkle Novice Chase. Former Supreme winner Appreciate It heads the market for Willie Mullins with Paul Townend in the saddle.
He has an untarnished record in two races over fences so far and will have gained experience when getting into a battle with Top Bandit in the closing stages of his Punchestown chasing debut, quickening without being asked too much by his jockey and swiftly putting the race to bed.
His following race was straightforward in which he made all and won comfortably, unchallenged. In this race he is the one to beat and should be good enough to mount a challenge for the victory.
His stablemate Dysart Dynamo can be keen, race freely and is difficult to trust at this stage. If he makes the running at an electric pace, he may find it difficult to stay on well enough to win. Danny Mullins, booked for the ride, is an excellent judge and may be able to guide his mount at a pace strong enough, without being detrimental to his chances.
The early stages of the race should determine Dysart Dynamo’s chances. Clearly a talented horse, if he is able to settle better and get into a rhythm out in front, he could be difficult to peg by.
Banbridge is a talented horse with a big future ahead of him but the ground may be on the softer side for him and he could well be suited to a sounder surface. That may scupper his chances in this field but he is a gelding worth siding with in future races.
The interesting each-way angle in the race is El Fabiolo. At the prices he represents value, currently best priced at 6/1 having slightly shortened since the markets opened. He made a few mistakes on chasing debut and may struggle if making too many errors in this field, and that perhaps gives Appreciate It the edge. However, if El Fabiolo jumps cleanly he could be a big threat to the favourite and is one to keep an eye on.
Course and distance winner Saint Roi defeated Visionarian here in December to record a Grade One success over fences, following a four-length defeat to Fil Dor at Navan. The three are available at big prices here, with Saint Roi and Fil Dor perhaps good enough to finish among the places if running to their best.
Flame Bearer wasn’t able to stay well enough at Naas when finishing a distant third to Journey With Me but was much more efficient at Fairyhouse. He is perhaps slightly exposed but he does have talent and is a big price at 20/1.
Prediction:
- Appreciate It
- El Fabiolo
- Fil Dor
3:05pm – Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)
Galopin Des Champs is the odds-on favourite to record his fifth success over fences and prepare perfectly for a Cheltenham Gold Cup attempt. His record over fences is almost perfect, failing to win only when falling late on when clear in last year’s Turner Novcies’ Chase at Prestbury Park.
Stattler is his biggest danger according to the market, but he faces a tough task if to topple his stablemate. He finished a narrow second to Minella Indo at Tramore on New Year’s Day, when perhaps unlucky to taste defeat.
Kemboy has finished second in his last four starts and is never one to rule out each-way but is getting older and shouldn’t be good enough to land a blow on the favourite at this stage in his career.
Any Second Now and The Big Dog are interesting entries and are definitely horses to keep in mind for the big stamina tests this season, but they may struggle over this 3m trip.
3:05pm – Irish Gold Cup (Grade 1)
Galopin Des Champs is the odds-on favourite to record his fifth success over fences and prepare perfectly for a Cheltenham Gold Cup attempt. His record over fences is almost perfect, failing to win only when falling late on when clear in last year’s Turner Novices’ Chase at Prestbury Park. Stattler is his biggest danger according to the market, but he faces a tough task if to topple his stablemate.
Kemboy has finished second in his last four starts and is never one to rule out each-way but is getting older and shouldn’t be good enough to land a blow on the favourite at this stage in his career.
Any Second Now and The Big Dog are interesting entries and are definitely horses to keep in mind for the big stamina tests this season, but they may struggle over this 3m trip.
Prediction:
- Galopin Des Champs
- Stattler
Long shot at Leopardstown…
The Little Yank 66/1 (3:40pm Grade B Handicap Hurdle)
An extremely likable horse that often outruns his odds and gives his all. He will have needed the run last time out after a short absence following a heavy fall at Listowel.
The rank outsider of this field could give a better showing of himself this time out and has often been selected by The Conditional, notably at odds of 150/1 and 80/1, respectively, last winter, where he finished third on both occasions.
He is 3lbs lower for his run last month and has 5lbs claimer Liam Quinlan onboard, back on his last winning mark of 135 over hurdles.
SANDOWN
2:20pm – Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
The Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase has been won by many great horses in past renewals. In 2001 the exceptional Best Mate, who would go on to win three Cheltenham Gold Cups, recorded success in the contest and last year saw a star born in L’Homme Presse as he galloped to victory to claim his first Grade One prize.
Unbeaten Irish-raider Gerri Colombe heads the market for Gordon Elliott, searching for back-to-back Grade One wins. He is six from six under rules, having also won a Point-To-Point, and has strong claims if able to replicate his Irish form.
Trainer Elliott has saddled seven runners at the track without recording a win, which could be a cause for concern for backers of the fancied favourite. However, Gerri Colombe may well be talented enough to provide his yard with their first Sandown victory.
The imposing Monmiral has been beaten by Jonbon and The Real Whacker, respectively, in two starts over fences to date. Better was expected of him last time out when sent off as 13/8, however the market may have underestimated the eventual winner, The Real Whacker, who was subsequently given a hefty 14lbs rise.
Thunder Rock was less than impressive throughout the race at Cheltenham, but did well to stay on having failed to jump with much fluency and without appearing to travel comfortably. A reversal of positions with Monmiral is not out of the question, but the Nicholls representative could be able to show further improvement on his third start over fences and may be able to live up to some of the expectations surrounding him.
Nicky Henderson is leading trainer in this contest with six victories, most recently saddling Terrefort to victory in 2018. Balco Coastal must be respected, representing a yard that has been fairly quiet in recent weeks. He was effective on his second chasing start following a shaky start to life over fences at Newbury. When last seen at Kempton he convincingly beat the field by nine-lengths and is now rated 11lbs higher, 10lbs lower than the favourite.
Bowtogreatness is the outsider of the field representing a thriving Ben Pauling yard. His third to Complete Unknown was respectable enough although more was expected from a horse sent off as favourite. The slight drop back in trip on better ground may see him perform to greater effect but he has been well beaten by Thunder Rock in the past which suggests he may be out of his depth in this field.
Long shot at Sandown…
Movethechains 12/1 (was 25/1) (3:30pm Class 2 Handicap Chase)
Gary Moore’s gelding had recorded a four-timer prior to running a respectable fifth on seasonal reappearance in the Welsh Grand National. He may come on for the run, as he has in the past, and represents some each-way value at a big price.
Perhaps the handicapper has got the measure of him off this mark of 127, dropped only 1lbs for his run at Chepstow, or he could still be on an upward trajectory, capable of showing further progression in the hands of 3lbs claimer Niall Houlihan.
His jockey is fresh from his first Grade One success following a win in the Clarence House Chase onboard Editeur Du Gite last Saturday at Cheltenham.
WETHERBY
2:40pm – Towton Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Odds-on favourite Ballygrifincottage finished fourth in the competitive Grade One Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (The Spa) at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. He was the best of the British contenders and finished ahead of Willie Mullins’ Ramillies who was first past the post in a Grade Three last week before being demoted to second.
This represents the best formline in the race and if able to jump effectively, Dan Skelton’s gelding appears the one to beat in this field. He is 7lbs clear on ratings and, despite having to give weight away to his rivals, he looks a progressive type who could have plenty of success ahead of him as a chaser.
He made a winning start to life over fences when winning his pipe opener at Haydock, beating two runners including warm favourite Beauport. He is a strong stayer and could possibly line up in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Broadway) in March, for which he is currently as short as 7/1 in ante-post markets.
City Chief could be the biggest threat to the favourite in this four-runner race. He has made two starts over fences, winning when last seen at Hereford over 3m1f. Last year he went to the Punchestown Festival, giving a good account of himself to finish fifth of twenty five runners in a competitive handicap over hurdles. He is 4lbs higher now, running off a chase mark of 135, giving him 10lbs to find with Ballygrifincottage whilst receiving 3lbs.
O’Toole did well to win on chase debut at Newcastle last mont and is a horse open to plenty of further improvement as he steps up in trip to 3m for the first time.
Completing the line-up is six-year-old mare Bellatrixsa who may have needed the run at Chepstow but will need to find more to be competitive here. She is a proven stayer and receives the weight but the yard form remains of concern.
Prediction:
- Ballygrifincottage
MUSSELBURGH
1:28pm – Novices’ Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Exciting novice chaser Notlongtillmay was exceptional when winning over course and distance here last month, putting sixteen-lengths between himself and the field when ridden by 3lbs claimer Patrick Cowley. He is 10lbs up for that win, with champion jockey Brian Hughes taking the ride on Laura Morgan’s charge.
Two from two over fences so far for his new yard, and bidding for three successive wins, the gelding has previously run respectably in bumpers prior to making his debut over obstacles. The yard has been performing at a strike rate of 22% in chase races this season and this progressive gelding is certainly one to keep in the tracker.
Notlongtillmay 2/1 – L J Morgan, Brian Hughes
2:03pm – The Edinburgh National Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The Wolf has been dropped 1lbs for his below par performance at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, giving him the same rating as his last winning mark on 135. He is much closer in the weights to Captain Cattistock this time around, with the Fergal O’Brien charge available at a shorter price and seems well fancied by many.
The pair met in the race last year in a close contest won by Captain Cattistock, with the winner receiving 16lbs from the runner-up. There is 7lbs between them here and a reversal in places isn’t out of the question.
At Cheltenham in October The Wolf finished a miraculous second to Lord Accord over 3m1f. He looked set to be pulled up early on at Prestbury Park, jumping poorly and never travelling with any ease. However, he stayed on, kept at his task and slowly shuffled himself back into the race under Adrian Heskin.
His usual partner in the saddle has other engagements on Saturday, as he travels to Sandown to ride Thunder Rock in the Grade One Scilly Isles, with Paddy Brennan taking the ride instead. The Wolf will sport first-time blinkers, which could allow him to concentrate more on his jumping and travel better in the early stages.
The Wolf 10/1 (EW) – Olly Murphy, Paddy Brennan
3:16pm – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Donald McCain’s Nayati was successful over course and distance last month and could make it back-to-back victories at the track. He made a winning return to action in September having been absent since December 2019, and has already recorded three wins this season.
The nine-year-old gelding enjoys softer conditions, but was perhaps unsuited by the “tacky” going at Sandown in December (as described by his trainer), as was stablemate Maximilian who underperformed at the meeting but has since won a Grade Two race.
At Bangor-On-Dee in November he excelled in heavy conditions, but he has won on good to soft ground and shouldn’t be inconvenienced if conditions aren’t too testing come Saturday.
When last seen here he was sent off at odds of 11/1, having been as big as 22/1 on the morning of the race. He was given a patient ride by jockey Brian Hughes, before making swift progress in the latter stages and running on strongly to claim the plaudits.
In his current rich vein of form he is a horse worth sticking with, and the 3lbs rise to a career-high mark of 135 should allow him to remain competitive in such contests.
Band Of Outlaws is an interesting runner in the race. He was featured in The Conditional’s ‘Saturday’s Selections’ earlier in January, when the gelding appeared at Sandown. He had been well backed having opened at 40/1 following declarations, but was eventually tailed off on debut for Ben Haslam.
Joseph O’Brien’s first Cheltenham Festival winner, Band Of Outlaws won the Boodles (The Fred Winter) in 2019 and has run in many competitive races whilst showing plenty of ability in the past.
He may not be as talented as he once was, but he did weaken surprisingly quickly when last seen and it may be worth keeping an eye on him during the race. He was dropped 5lbs for his tailed-off effort, giving him a slightly more workable mark of 137.
It may not be the time to back this horse, but he is certainly one to follow and there may be a decent handicap prize in him, perhaps off a lower mark, in future.
Nayati 6/1 – Donald McCain, Brian Hughes
THE CONDITIONAL 