Katie Midwinter (24/02/23)
KEMPTON
1:50pm – Adonis Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
A field of eight has been declared for Kempton’s opener on the card, a Grade Two for juvenile hurdlers, with Milton Harris’ Triumph Hurdle hope Scriptwriter currently heading the market.
The well-bred son of Churchill has been mentioned numerous times on The Conditional having shown plenty of promise since switching disciplines and has received plenty of public support from his trainer who clearly has high hopes for the former Ballydoyle resident.
Despite suffering his first defeat when narrowly beaten by Comfort Zone at Cheltenham last month, he is a horse worth sticking with, especially when conditions are in his favour. He was unsuited by the soft going when last seen but still put in a brave effort, putting his credentials on the line and running well enough to be spoken of as a lively contender heading into the Cheltenham Festival.
The Grade Two winner must give weight away to his rivals here but is good enough to bounce back to winning ways and make it a perfect preparation for his tough assignment in three weeks time.
Unexposed Rare Middleton is the biggest threat to Scriptwriter according to the market. He has only been seen once for Paul Nicholls, winning his maiden on rain-softened ground at Taunton last month. He had previously raced twice on the flat, finishing second before winning at Leopardstown for trainer Andy Oliver.
Gary Moore’s promising juvenile Perseus Way has already been beaten by the favourite this season and will have to jump with more fluency if to have a chance of reversing form. He put in a gallant effort on testing ground at Chepstow in December, when finishing two-and-a-quarter-lengths third to the aforementioned Comfort Zone and will be more suited to the better ground at Kempton.
Irish-raider Nusret for Joseph O’Brien has been beaten by Willie Mullins’ pair Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny in recent runs in Ireland and should face an easier task this time around. The colt has proved himself useful on the flat and promising over hurdles. He is certainly one to consider and his performance may give indication of the level Scriptwriter is at in comparison with the Irish horses he will have to beat if to reign victorious in the Triumph.
Ben Brookhouse’s Sarsons Risk wears a first-time tongue tie in his second run following wind surgery whilst four-year-old Golden Horn filly Pawapuri makes her hurdling debut for Nicky Henderson following two flat wins for William Haggas. Listed runner-up The Churchill Lad and Spartan Army complete the line up in what is set to be an interesting contest.
Win selection:
Scriptwriter 15/8 – Milton Harris, Paddy Brennan
2:25pm – Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Outsider of the field Jay Jay Reilly is the only horse in this five-runner field that recorded success on his last outing. This is a significant step up in class for the seven-year-old, but he is brave and will enjoy good ground conditions.
Market leader Boothill was disappointing when beaten favourite at Doncaster, following a Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase success over Aucunrisque in his prior start. He has the experience to win at this level and is the one to beat, but must give weight away.
Datsalrightgino isn’t without his quirks and jumping frailties, however he is a consistent type and has been progressing nicely for the Jamie Snowden yard. He has only won once in five runs over fences but deserves his chance at this level and may be able to mount a challenge if able to jump fluently.
Solo runs for the first time after a wind operation and may be able to show improvement on his last two runs in which he has finished a well-beaten runner up on both occasions. Course and distance winner Tweed Skirt will need to improve on her third at Huntingdon last month. The Nicky Henderson-trained mare receives the allowances which could bring her into contention.
3:00pm – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Vying for favouritism at the head of the market in this competitive and open contest is Saint Calvados who is 3lbs lower than his last winning mark with Harry Cobden back onboard. He will be suited to better conditions having failed to mount a threatening challenge in the Silviniaco Conti Chase on soft ground, and appears to be potentially well-handicapped off a mark of 154.
There are slight doubts regarding his stamina, however his previous 3m attempts have all been on ground with soft or worse in the description and he has won over 2m6½f when recording an emphatic win over useful rivals at Sandown last April. If able to replicate that level of performance which saw him rise to a mark of 161, he is likely to be competitive.
Recent course and distance winner Annsam will be looking to make it two wins in as many months at the track. He is a strong stayer who is usually prominent but now runs off a career-high mark of 142 which could leave him vulnerable .
Cap Du Nord won the Swinley Chase at Ascot last Saturday, now running off a 8lbs mark with 5lbs claimer Cian Quirke onboard. It would be no surprise to see him land another big prize as he is particularly effective in big handicaps on good ground.
The popular partnership of Frodon and Bryony Frost face a tough task at the weights if they are to reign victorious. The gelding has successfully carried 12st in a Grade Three Handicap already this season, when winning the Badger Beer Chase at Wincanton but now runs off a 3lbs higher mark of 161. He is never a horse to rule out however, as he always puts in a brave effort and gives his all.
Our Power runs off a career-high mark of 141 following his win in the Bateaux London Gold Cup at Ascot earlier in the season. He is a consistent horse who stays well and may be able to cope with the rise in the weights.
At a bigger price Enrilo is perhaps one to consider from an each-way perspective. He is 1lbs lower than when placed third in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown in the season before last and, although he has been less than reliable since, he is a talented individual on a going day and has perhaps needed to rediscover confidence following a couple of heavy falls. Angus Cheleda takes 5lbs off his racing weight, giving him 10st 4lbs to carry, which could put him in with a chance of returning to some form.
Bobhopeornohope beat Black Gerry in a Dromahane Point-To-Point almost three years ago, and the pair meet once again here. Both have a bit to find in this company as their prices reflect.
Win selection:
Saint Calvados 11/2 – Paul Nicholls, Harry Cobden
Each-way selection:
Enrilo 22/1 – Paul Nicholls, Angus Cheleda (5)
NEWCASTLE
3:25pm – Eider Handicap Chase
The fancied Kitty’s Light is the one to beat in this field. Trainer Christian Williams attempts to land another big handicap prize with his seven-year-old gelding who has seen his handicap mark drop 12lbs since his season opener at Chepstow in October.
He is now 11lbs lower than when putting in a gallant effort to finish second to now-retired former stablemate Win My Wings in the Scottish Grand National and 13lbs lower than when third to the mighty Hewick in the bet365 Gold Cup.
A rating of 132 suggests he is extremely well handicapped if returning to form, with the latter stages of the season usually bringing improvement from him as well as better ground.
Despite plenty in Kitty’s Light’s favour, he does face fourteen rivals and will have twenty-six obstacles to manoeuvre. Anything can happen in racing and, whilst Williams could have an excellent day across the cards, his charge is perhaps slightly short and there could be each-way value among the bigger-priced contenders.
John Flint’s Amateur is a strong stayer who is only 1lbs higher than his last winning mark. Currently best priced at 18/1, he has potential to outrun his odds and gain a placed finish.
No Cruise Yet has been progressing well for Sam England and recently gave a good account of himself at Bangor-On-Dee following an impressive win at Haydock. He runs off a mark of 114, having previously won when rated 1lbs higher at Carlisle last year, therefore could go well again carrying a low weight.
Former winner Sam’s Adventure is an interesting contender now 14lbs lower than when winning the contest two years ago. He is perhaps past his best, but if he was able to show a revival he could be dangerously well treated at the weights.
Win selection:
Kitty’s Light 5/2 – Christian Williams, Jack Tudor
Each-way selection:
Amateur 16/1 – John Flint, Connor Brace
One to watch up north…
City Roller 12/1 (1:43pm Newcastle)
Laura Horsfall’s young gelding showed plenty of greenness when fifth on his last outing at Huntingdon but still put in a good effort to finish fifth of fourteen when sent off at odds of 80/1.
He is by Scorpion, a sire of a number of useful horses such as four-time Grade One winner Might Bite, as well as current chasers Riders Onthe Storm, Danny Kirwan and Rapper, and is out of Pearl’s A Singer.
Charlie Price once again claims 3lbs onboard the five-year-old that could show improvement as he gains experience and may be worth keeping an eye on in lower level contests.
FAIRYHOUSE
Touted as the Cullentra Ballymore hope, Champion Bumper runner-up American Mike makes his handicap debut in the third race on a competitive card at Fairyhouse. The gelded son of Mahler has a big reputation to live up to and has been slightly disappointing since beginning his hurdling career.
A win on season opener at Down Royal when sent off at odds of 1/6 started his campaign on a promising note, however he has been well-beaten twice since and is now appears more likely to run in the Coral Cup or Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival next month. Whilst he is certainly one to keep a close eye on here, and if able to show his class he could have the beating of this field, he may be vulnerable to some more experienced handicappers.
Henry de Bromhead’s Spirit Of Legend was brought down before mounting his challenge at Navan but had finished second to the well-backed Green Glory in a competitive handicap at Leopardstown over the festive period in his prior run. He is 4lbs higher but has shown promise and is a lively contender.
Tony Martin’s Unanswered could be another to consider in the field, capable of bouncing back following his disappointing run at Leopardstown in which he never threatened.
It was perhaps too stiff a test for the six-year-old, as he carried a hefty weight in a competitive race on soft ground. With the ground currently described as yielding at Fairyhouse, Unanswered is worth another try off a mark of 113 and carries a feather weight.
There is Grade Three action later on the card with the Bobbyjo Chase taking place at 3:55pm. Willie Mullins boasts eleven wins in the race since his first success in 2005 with the magnificent Hedgehunter who went on to win the Grand National at Aintree.
Two represent Closutton this time around, yard stalwart Kemboy, the mount of Paul Townend, and Carefully Selected. The former is the class of the field and would be deserving of a win following a string of second-placed finishes prior to his disappointing effort in the Irish Gold Cup, whilst his stablemate returns to Graded company for the first time in almost two years following two recent handicap appearances.
Gordon Elliott saddles two contenders in the useful Pencilfulloflead and unlucky stayer Farclas. Both have each-way claims on their day, but will need to show improvement.
Longhouse Poet is set for a second attempt at the Grand National in April but has been given a tricky assignment by the handicapper as he is set to run off a mark of 155. Rated 1lbs lower here, the Martin Brassil-trained gelding has potential in this company with only 3lbs to find with the highest-rated horse in the field, Kemboy.
Another runner heading for Aintree is Enjoy D’Allen who has finished down the field in all of his three runs this season. A mark of 146 for the marathon race will make it tough, only 2lbs lower than when he failed to finish at the Liverpool track last year, however he could show a resurgence in form and may treat this as a run-out ahead of his future assignment.
Best bet:
Unanswered 10/1 (EW) – A J Martin, Peter Carberry
Ante-post watch (Aintree Grand National 2023):
Longhouse Poet 16/1 (generally)
Enjoy D’Allen 50/1 (best price)
RIYADH
There is plenty of British interest in Saudi Arabia’s capital city Riyadh on Saudi Cup day. George Boughey’s Missed The Cut is partnered by Oisin Murphy in the valuable Group 3 Neom Turf Cup. He is four from six under rules and with the yard on the up and jockey in-form, he could be able to overcome his wide draw and mount a threatening challenge.
John & Thady Gosden’s Mostahdaf drops back in trip on ground to suit which could see him fare better than when last of the field in different circumstances in the Arc when last seen. The yard are performing at a 38% strike rate and will hope for success at Lingfield at the same off time as they saddle three lively contenders in the Winter Derby.
William Knight’s popular Sir Busker sports a visor in his attempt at the prize. The seven-year-old often runs well in defeat in tough contests and has already accumulated over £500,000 in prize money during his career. He recorded success in the Group Two York Stakes during the summer as he made the step up in trip, and benefits from a recent run at Lingfield where he was unlucky to face defeat in the Listed Tandridge Stakes.
White Moonlight and Dubai Future both represent the Saeed bin Suroor yard in Godolphin blue. The lightly raced six-year-old mare White Moonlight has put in two solid efforts at Meydan since the turn of the year and will be hoping to go one better on her Riyadh debut.
The Group Three Turf Sprint looks a particularly difficult contest to predict. Japanese-raider Songline attempts to retain his crown for trainer Toru Hayashi, whilst last year’s runner-up Casa Creed will bid to reverse form and reign victorious for William Mott.
Richard Hannon could saddle the best of the British contenders, as he has two lively chances in the field. Third-place a year ago, Happy Romance has been a wonderful mare for the yard and is an extremely likeable type. She often outruns her odds and can be relied on in tricky circumstances. However, she is perhaps better over 6f as the 7f trip appears to slightly test her stamina.
Lusail is one to consider in this type of race. The dual Group Two-winner is by Mehmas, a sire known for his speedy progeny, and has proven winning form over the trip. Jockey James Doyle has been enjoying plenty of success in recent weeks and could guide the four-year-old colt to victory.
Pogo makes another appearance in the race for Charlie Hills, accompanied by stablemate Garrus. Both have Group level successes to their name and are capable of putting in strong challenges if at their best, but the latter can be slightly inconsistent and will need to be on song as he steps up in trip.
Subjectivist makes his long-awaited return to track for the first time since victory when given a sublime ride by Joe Fanning in the 2021 Ascot Gold Cup. A fortnight following his special win he was reported to have injured his superficial flexor tendon, a potentially career-ending injury and it is a surprise to see him back on track.
Whether or not he has retained some of his ability remains to be seen, but he will certainly be a force to be reckoned with if returning to form after such a long absence.
The Gosden training partnership saddle Ebor winner Trawlerman, the mount of Frankie Dettori. He should appreciate the better ground following a third-placed effort on rain-softened ground in the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day. Ian Williams’ is represented by useful stayer Enemy, making his second appearance following wind surgery and fresh from a 1m4f handicap success at Meydan last month.
Al Qareem is ridden by Ryan Moore for Karl Burke whilst Daniel Tudhope partners Get Shirty for David O’Meara.
The Kingsclere yard has been in magnificent form of late, with Andrew Balding currently performing at a 50% strike rate following multiple successes on all-weather tracks in England. Nate The Great, who could fare better in a handicap following a couple of disappointing runs in Group One and Group Two company, represents the in-form stables.
THE CONDITIONAL 