Grand National 2023 Preview

Katie Midwinter (11/04/23)

Aintree’s showpiece, The Grand National, is nearly upon us. Forty runners and riders will head to post at the Merseyside track, all dreaming of writing their names in the history books, aiming for horse racing immortality as winners of the prestigious handicap contest.

Picking out the winner is an exceptionally difficult task. Most of the horses set to line up have never attempted such a marathon trip whilst proven specialists have been dealt hefty blows by the handicapper and face tough tasks at the weights.

The formbook often goes out the window when it comes to the Grand National. Luck is needed for a safe trip around. With so many runners, there are often multiple bad luck stories. Some may not take to the fences, whilst others may be brought down by fallers or hampered. It isn’t always the case that the best horses come to the fore.

Only two outright favourites have won the race this century, the great Hedgehunter in 2005 and the wonderful Tiger Roll in 2019, when the small Aintree specialist made it back-to-back wins in the hands of Davy Russell, the first horse to do so since Red Rum.

It’s true to an extent that any horse that makes the final cut could win. There have been many big-priced winners of the race over the years, including since the alteration of the fences in 2012.

Auroras Encore won at 66/1 ten years ago, followed by two successive 25/1 victors in Pineau De Re and Many Clouds respectively, both ridden by Leighton Aspell. Rule The World was sent off at odds of 33/1 in 2016 and reigning champion Noble Yeats went under the radar at 50/1 only last year.

The 4m2½f contest is the toughest test of stamina. Many are unexposed over the distance and could relish the step up in trip whilst others falter and tire. Whilst the race has its critics and it’s difficult to escape the negative coverage, horse welfare remains the priority and the best result on Saturday will be that every competitor, be it horse or rider, return safely. Many changes have been made to the fences and race requirements over the years, making it a safer, albeit less testing, contest.

The race has provided many fairytale moments, special stories and emotional endings. One that instantly comes to mind is Aldaniti’s magical success in 1981 under partner Bob Champion. Josh Gifford’s gelding had recovered from a career-threatening injury whilst Champion had survived cancer, and the perfect partnership combined to record a remarkable victory.

It is fifty years since Red Rum’s first victory in a last ditch surge towards the line. In ‘Crisp’s Grand National’ Ginger McCain’s young pretender tackled long-time leader Crisp who carried top-weight of 12st under Richard Pitman, overtaking the tiring warrior in heart-breaking fashion. Red Rum had received 23lbs from Crisp at Aintree but was well-beaten by his classy rival when the pair met off level weights.

Red Rum proved himself a true champion the following year, successfully carrying top-weight to victory, the last horse to do so, a feat Any Second Now must emulate if he is to make it third time lucky in the race. 

The Aintree great came second in the two following renewals before regaining his crown as a twelve-year-old in 1977, and remains the most successful horse in Grand National history. Tiger Roll was denied an attempt at emulating Red Rum as the 2020 race was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Countless greats have won the famous race and year on year there are many horses that catch the public’s attention and are well-backed. It’s the most popular betting day of the year, with many participating in sweepstakes or gathered in their living rooms, sorting out their each-way selections with family and friends. 

The mounts of Rachael Blackmore have been popular selections in recent years, as the jockey has captured many an imagination with her rise to stardom. She became the first female jockey to win the race with victory on the well-backed Minella Times in 2021, providing Henry de Bromhead with his first win in the race in what was a magical season for the Knockeen-based yard and jockey. Cloth Cap has been a popular choice in recent renewals but things didn’t work out for him at Aintree and he has since been retired.

This year Noble Yeats is likely to be a popular selection, along with Any Second Now and Delta Work. But the favourite will almost certainly be Corach Rambler who recently recorded back-to-back wins in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival and will have Scottish punters behind him. It would be a poignant win for Lucinda Russell, weeks after the passing of her sole Grand National winner One For Arthur. The current market leader is 10lbs well in on ratings and has an excellent chance if coping with the step up in trip, but as we know the best horses don’t always finish first past the post.

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Here is a horse-by-horse guide to the world’s most famous steeplechase.

Any Second Now – T M Walsh – 11st 12lbs (167)

Third time lucky for Ted Walsh’s eleven-year-old who finished third in 2021, staying on remarkably well after being hampered before being beaten in the final furlong twelve months ago. He has been given a harsh mark of 167 by the handicapper but is much better off at the weights with Noble Yeats and another strong showing could be on the cards, although he may have missed his chance.

Noble Yeats – Emmet Mullins – 11st 11lbs (166)

Won off 147 last year when sent off at odds of 50/1. 19lbs higher this time around and has shown his class this season with Grade 2 success in the Many Clouds Chase. Put in a promising performance in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, staying on to finish fourth having been badly outpaced mid-race. He carries a hefty weight this time around but is a progressive sort who has to be in with a chance of recording successive wins.

Galvin – Gordon Elliott – 11st 11lbs (166)

Another classy contender who has shown improvement when stepping up in trip. Ran excellently in the Cross Country when narrowly beaten by stablemate Delta Work when perhaps needing the run following back problems. Beat A Plus Tard to win Grade 1 Savills Chase last season before finishing fourth in the Gold Cup and has taken a different route this season in preparation for a crack at this race. Possibly legendary jockey Davy Russell’s final ride.

Fury Road – Gordon Elliott – 11st 6lbs (161)

The highest-rated entry for Gigginstown, Fury Road has been running in Grade 1 contests this term following a Grade 2 success at Down Royal. Unexposed over marathon trips and previously finished  fourth to Monkfish in PTP over 3m. Could run well at a price if able to cope with the extra distance.

The Big Dog – Peter Fahey – 11st 5lbs (160)

Running off a career high 160. He is a likeable type and could be well-backed on the day. Two time winner of competitive handicaps on soft over 3m this season before a good third in the Welsh Grand National off a top weight of 12st. Fell in the Irish Gold Cup when last seen. Definitely one for the shortlist.

Capodanno – W P Mullins – 11st 5lbs (160)

Fourth in the Brown Advisory last term before beating Lifetime Ambition and Fury Road to success in the Champion Novice Chase at the Punchestown Festival. Only seen once this season in a Grade 2. Good winner of Grade B handicap over hurdles as a five-year-old and has proven he can compete in big fields. Unexposed over fences.

Delta Work – Gordon Elliott – 11st 4lbs (159)

Dangerously low mark. He has thrived over cross-country fences at Cheltenham and deserves credit for overcoming the magnificent Tiger Roll last term before finishing a third in this race. Impressed at Aintree carrying a hefty weight of 11st 9lbs on ground faster than ideal. Now 1lbs lower whilst receiving weight from the two ahead of him last year. The more rain the better for him. Big chance.

Sam Brown – Anthony Honeyball – 11st 4lbs (159)

Harsh mark of 159 will make it tough but he does stay well and keeps plodding on. If he can stay out of trouble and run his own race he’s likely to be among the finishers. May get outpaced.

Lifetime Ambition – Mrs John Harrington – 11st 3lbs (158)

Jessica Harrington is yet to land the Aintree prize and Lifetime Ambition would prove a poignant winner. The trainer’s late mare Magic Of Light narrowly missed out on the 2019 renewal when sent off at 66/1 and whilst Lifetime Ambition is unlikely to go one better, he is a horse capable of entering the frame. Finished second to The Big Dog in the Troytown at Navan. Wildcard.

Carefully Selected – W P Mullins – 11st 1lbs (156)

Entered the conversation with a Grade A win at Gowran Park over 3m1f on testing ground and is 9lbs higher here. Dual Grade 3 winner as a novice chaser but is difficult to have confidence in as he can be inconsistent.

Coko Beach – Gordon Elliott – 11st (155)

Lovely grey gelding but has a stiff enough mark. He is 5lbs higher than when eighth in last year’s contest and 9lbs higher than his Punchestown win in February. Often enters the frame at a big price, staying on after being outpaced and could have an each-way chance at a big price.

Longhouse Poet – Martin Brassil – 11st (155)

One to watch. Connections often do well when sending horses over to England and Longhouse Poet ran well for a long way twelve months ago, before fading and finishing sixth. Each-way claims once again off the same mark of 155 and had a perfect preparation at Down Royal.

Gaillard Du Mesnil –  W P Mullins – 11st (155)

Finished third in the Irish equivalent last year when off a 1lb lower mark. Winner of National Hunt Cup at Cheltenham last month. Classy type, stays well, often runs his race and is consistent. Definitely worthy of consideration.

Darasso – Joseph Patrick O’Brien – 10st 13lbs (154)

Third in the Kerry National last Sept when 2lbs lower and beat Escaria Ten in Listed contest at Thurles. Better than recent showings suggest but others are preferred.

Le Milos – Dan Skelton – 10st 11lbs (152)

Interesting contender who has excelled for Dan Skelton this season having previously shown plenty of promise for Tim Vaughan. He is 10lbs higher than when winning his season opener at Bangor-On-Dee and followed up at Newbury over 3m2f before a narrow second to Empire Steel at Kelso. Primed for this and likely to be well backed as the best of the English hopes. Ground versatile and a strong stayer with plenty in his favour.

Escaria Ten – Gordon Elliott – 10st 10lbs (151)

Completed the course last year, finishing ninth when 4lbs higher but never threatened. Disappointing last twice after finishing second in Listed company. More is needed but has a slightly easier task off 148.

The Big Breakaway – Joe Tizzard – 10st 10lbs (151)

Fantastic performance carrying 11st 13lbs in testing conditions when close second in Welsh equivalent, finishing ahead of The Big Dog. Now 3lbs higher but certainly worthy of taking his chance on his first attempt at these fences.

Cape Gentleman – John Joseph Hanlon – 10st 8lbs (149)

Put in a career best to win Grade 3 at Cork last term for Emmet Mullins. He was staying on well when falling at the last in the Kerry National off a 2lbs higher mark but is yet to fire in two runs for John Joseph Hanlon.

Roi Mage – Patrick Griffin – 10st 8lbs (149)

Second to Longhouse Poet at Down Royal recently and is largely unexposed in this sort of contest. The interesting contender has been running in high-quality fields and was third in the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris in 2019. Age isn’t on his side and he would be the first eleven-year-old to win since 2014 but he could be a dark horse.

Diol Ker – Noel Meade – 10st 8lbs (149)

Second to Real Steel in the Grade B Paddy Power Chase when 4lbs lower with 5lbs claimer onboard. Looks exposed off a mark of 149.

A Wave Of The Sea – Joseph Patrick O’Brien – 10st 6lbs (147)

A horse with plenty of experience in big field handicaps. Looks to have an impossible task at the weights unless he happens to show masses of improvement over these fences, up in trip.

Minella Trump – Donald McCain – 10st 6lbs (147)

Beat now 170-rated Hewick at Perth last season when receiving 3lbs. Stamina is a possible concern as he’s idled late on in his last two runs over 3m. Yet to be tested over further and potentially well handicapped if able to handle the marathon trip. Stamina doubts. Would be the McCain family’s fifth overall winner in the race, a second success for Donald McCain following in his father’s footsteps, Ginger McCain, a three-time winner with Red Rum.

Vanillier –  Gavin Cromwell – 10st 6lbs (147)

Won the Albert Bartlett two years ago. He has talent but can be difficult to back at times. Did well to finish a close second behind Kemboy in the Bobbyjo Chase recently. Capable of entering the frame on his day and potentially well-handicapped but is unreliable.

Velvet Elvis – Thomas Gibney – 10st 6lbs (147)

Beat Minella Crooner and others including Cape Gentleman to win at Fairyhouse in February off a mark of 140. Finished sixth in last year’s Irish equivalent at Fairyhouse when 4lbs lower. Will need a career best.

Ain’t That A Shame – Henry De Bromhead – 10st 5lbs (146)

Fourth in December’s Paddy Power Chase when beaten favourite. Won on reappearance at Gowran Park last month beating Macs Charm who subsequently won at the Fairyhouse Easter Festival. Head second to The Big Dog in Munster National at Limerick off 137 and whilst a mark of 146 is stiff enough, he has potential. 

Corach Rambler – Lucinda Russell – 10st 5lbs (146)

Impressed at Cheltenham to win back-to-back Ultima Handicaps and is 10lbs well in on ratings. Likeable type but not guaranteed to enjoy the extra mile and may struggle if sent to challenge late on.

Enjoy D’allen – Ciaran Murphy – 10st 5lbs (146)

Hasn’t been shown much leniency by the handicapper but should fare better than Fairyhouse preparation run. Unseated at first fence last year and will have been trained with Aintree in mind. Possibly worth another chance at a big price.

Mr Incredible – W P Mullins – 10st 4lbs (145)

Placed in each race he has completed and stayed 3m5f well on heavy ground when 3lbs lower which bodes well for his stamina capabilities. Did exceptionally well at Warwick having looked well beaten and could be one capable of a late surge in that long run towards the winning post.

Mister Coffey –  Nicky Henderson – 10st 4lbs (145)

The Grand National is a prize that has so far evaded Nicky Henderson. His last ten runners finishes read UPFP00UF0P. Mister Coffey could fare better but he has a mountain to climb to reach Aintree’s summit. Still a maiden over fences.

Cloudy Glen –  Venetia Williams – 10st 4lbs (145)

Third in Haydock’s Trial race having travelled well for a long way, leaving a bit up his sleeve. Runs off the same mark despite being officially rated 3lbs lower. Pulled-up in the Ultima but capable of outrunning his huge odds.

Hill Sixteen – Sandy Thomson – 10st 2lbs (143)

Nose second to Snow Leopardess in last season’s Becher Chase is perhaps the pick of his form. He is 7lbs higher here and doesn’t appear particularly well-handicapped, but has proven himself over the fences and is likely better than recent form suggests. Second run after wind operation could bring improvement. Could Ryan Mania repeat his feat from 10 years ago when he partnered Auroras Encore to victory?

Gabbys Cross – Henry De Bromhead – 10st 2lbs (143)

Beat Busselton and the likes of Freewheelin Dylan off 137 in July. Couldn’t back it up at Listowel when up in trip. Has experience in big field handicaps and often among the extra places but looks the yard’s second string and others are preferred.

Recite A Prayer –  W P Mullins – 10st 1lbs (142)

Snippets of good form in less competitive handicap. Has plenty to find on this season’s form but could have been trained with this race in mind and has been kept fresh.

Eva’s Oskar – Tim Vaughan – 10st 1lbs (142)

Fourth in the Eider off top weight. Has a low weight here and would be a fairytale success for Tim Vaughan but will need a career best.

Our Power – Sam Thomas – 10st (141)

Sneaks in at the bottom end of the weights, 6lbs below his official rating. In great form, having won both runs of the season. Finished fifth to Corach Rambler in last year’s Ultima when only 2lbs lower. A consistent type that could enter the frame if he takes to the fences.

Dunboyne – Gordon Elliott – 10st (141)

Fourth in the Kim Muir at last month’s Cheltenham Festival off the same mark. Close second to Carefully Selected at Gowran Park in January. Stays well and may be yet to show his best form.

Francky Du Berlais – Peter Bowen – 10st (141)

He is 1lbs higher than last winning mark when recording a Grade 3 Handicap win in July. Stayed on to finish fifth in Cheltenham’s January Cross-Country race. Refused in Festival Cross-Country. Toughest assignment yet and looks unlikely to trouble the leading contenders. 

Fortescue – 9st 13lbs – Henry Daly – 140

Is now 3lbs lower than when fifth in the Trial race at Haydock. Finished fourth off 145 at Aintree in December. Useful handicapper but may struggle against some high-quality opponents.

Back On The Lash – Martin Keighley – 9st 13lbs (140)

Cross-Country winner at Cheltenham in January off the same mark. Likely to enjoy the fences in first Aintree run. Adam Wedge could get a nice spin off him but unlikely to enter calculations.

Born By The Sea – Paul John Gilligan – 9st 10lbs (137)

Has been sent off at big prices in his races this season and has struggled. 9lbs higher than official rating. Has proven stamina over 3m in lower class affairs, but this is a huge step up.

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R41. Fakiera – Gordon Elliott – 9st 8lbs (135)

Maiden over fences. Second-place finish to stablemate Punitive off 128 is best result over staying trips, with Irish Grant National winner Lord Lariat back in sixth. Showed class as a novice with Grade 3 success and beat Gabynako in maiden hurdle. Much different task here but is unexposed and better ground could bring out some improvement.

R42. Mortal – Gordon Elliott – 9st 8lbs (135)

Finished fourth in the January Cross-Country and is 1lbs lower here. Looks highly unlikely to make the frame but has plenty of experience in his favour.

R43. Darrens Hope – Robert Murphy – 9st 8lbs (135)

Has run eight times this season. Beat Minella Crooner in Punchestown Novice Grade 2 but form since has been disappointing. Not guaranteed to excel over a marathon trip.

R44. Captain Cattistock – Fergal O’Brien – 9st 5lbs (132)

Proven stamina with Hunters’ Chase success at Cheltenham over 4m½f. Second to Magna Sam at Musselburgh when finishing ahead of Scottish Borders National winner Flower Of Scotland further proved his staying capabilities however this is a big step up in class.

R45. Secret Reprieve – Evan Williams – 9st 5lbs (132)

Former Welsh Grand National winner has struggled to get a run in the Aintree showpiece. Highly unlikely to line up. Has talent but has struggled to build on his Chepstow success.

R46. Fantastikas – Nigel Twiston-Davies – 9st 5lbs (132)

Disappointed in the Ultima when last seen and unproven over further than 3m. Unlikely to get in.

It’s worth noting that horses rated out of the handicap will have to carry the minimum racing weight.

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Top 5:

1. Delta Work 10/1

The number one choice to go two places better than his third-placed finish last year. He stayed on well when carrying a hefty weight and has had a perfect preparation seeing off stablemate Galvin at Cheltenham. The handicapper has been kind and if there’s rain he should thrive in conditions.

2. Any Second Now 14/1

Top weight makes it extremely tough but he pulled clear of the field along with Noble Yeats twelve months ago, and he may well have done it with a bit more weight on his back. It’s a shame he isn’t better handicapped as he’s deserving of his day in the sun at Aintree, but he’s impossible to rule out and is definitely the heart bet.

3. Gaillard Du Mesnil 14/1

Impossible to ignore. Represents a top yard and has plenty of class, fresh from a win in the National Hunt Cup beating Chemical Energy who should have fared better in the Irish equivalent on Monday.

4. Our Power 20/1

Appears well handicapped carrying a feather weight. If he takes to the fences and stays the trip he should be in contention.

5. Enjoy D’allen 80/1

Departed at the first fence last year when likely to go well. Hasn’t been in form this season but he may be saving his best for Aintree. Nice type at lovely each-way price.

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Wildcards:

Coko Beach 33/1

It would be no surprise to see him plodding on towards the finish and staying on to gain a position among the extra places. He’s been a horse that has won good place money on many occasions and he has plenty of heart.

Hill Sixteen 80/1

The wind operation could bring some improvement and he’s definitely better than he’s shown recently. Likely to have been primed for this by a trainer that has been enjoying success this season.

Special mention:

Galvin 20/1

It would be wonderful to see Davy Russell go out on a high in what could be his last ride before a final retirement. Galvin is a classy and likeable horse who would be more than deserving of claiming the crown.

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(All runners/prices are correct at the time of writing)

Cover photo by Mateusz Zatorski on Unsplash