Katie Midwinter (04/05/23)
NEWMARKET – SATURDAY
2000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)
The first Classic of the season, a straight mile trip at Newmarket for the 2000 Guineas. The Rowley Mile has welcomed many young pretenders aiming for stardom and horse racing immortality. Some have lived up to expectations and many superstars have graced the hallowed turf at the home of Flat racing. The most iconic moment in recent history is Frankel’s breathtaking success twelve years ago. Ian Bartlett’s enthusiastic commentary of “At the bushes, Frankel is 15 lengths clear!” lives long in the memory.
Aidan O’Brien has recorded ten wins in the contest, dating back to 1998 when he saddled the victorious King Of Kings, followed by Rock Of Gibraltar in 2002 and Footstepsinthesand in 2005. The likes of Rock Of Gibraltar, Camelot and Saxon Warrior have all followed in the footsteps of royalty. The masterful trainer of Ballydoyle holds leading claims once again, and looks to saddle the top two in the market.
Auguste Rodin is the more fancied of O’Brien’s duo, the mount of Ryan Moore, and has been touted as a possible Triple Crown contender. To achieve such heights is something connections will be dreaming of, but such an accomplishment is rare, and the son of Deep Impact will need to first tackle thirteen rivals in his toughest task to date.
There have been no winners of the Triple Crown since the great Nijinsky claimed the plaudits in 1970, partnered by the incomparable Lester Piggott and trained by the exceptional Vincent O’Brien. Camelot came agonisingly close to emulating Nijinsky in 2012, landing both the 2000 Guineas and Derby before being narrowly denied by a rallying Encke at Doncaster.
Ballydoyle’s leading hope Auguste Rodin, a son of three-time Group One winning mare Rhododendron, is unbeaten over a mile and has already notched up three career wins, including the Group One Vertem Futurity Trophy. He finished second to subsequent Group Two winner Crypto Force on debut at the Curragh on good ground, before three successive victories on a softer surface. The dry ground at Newmarket would be a concern, but with plenty of rain forecast over the next couple of days it could play into the hands of the favourite, who would certainly be suited by a tough test of stamina.
The draw is perhaps a negative as both Ballydoyle representatives, Auguste Rodin and Little Big Bear respectively, are drawn in two of the three highest stalls, with a low draw usually more beneficial in these race conditions. Auguste Rodin will have his stablemate on his outside, and may be able to gain cover early on. He was impressive in testing conditions at Doncaster when last seen, and has been improving with each run. A special performance could be in the offing, and he holds leading claims for a top yard.
Stablemate Little Big Bear is yet to race over further than 6½f . Over the shorter trips he has shown great potential, recording four consecutive wins since suffering a marginal defeat on debut. He landed the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot before stepping up to Group Three company at the Curragh, then showing further progression to land a Group One success in the Phoenix Stakes, beating Persian Force by seven-lengths. Following his August win he suffered a setback and hasn’t been seen since, missing the latter part of his juvenile season.
By Group One winning sprinter No Nay Never, an exciting stallion known for producing speedy types, Little Big Bear is a horse with an electric turn of foot, highly effective over sprinting trips. A significant step up to a mile raises doubts in regards to his stamina capabilities. He is out of 1m2½f Listed winner Adventure Seeker, and if he has inherited stamina from his dam then a step up to a mile may be within reach. However, if the ground is on the softer side it significantly reduces his chances, as a quicker surface will be required to allow him to use speed to his advantage.
Andrew Balding saddled 2020 winner of the race Kameko to land his second Classic winner. This year he has required the services of retiring jockey Frankie Dettori, bidding for a fourth success in the race, who will attempt to go out on a high aboard Chaldean. The Frankel colt unseated when coming out of the stalls in his preparation run at Newbury, scathing many backers of the odds-on favourite. In his prior run, he landed the Dewhurst Stakes, narrowly prevailing over a rallying Royal Scotsman.
The form of Chaldean’s Group Two win at Doncaster has worked out well, with runner-up Indestructible winning a Group Three since and the third-placed horse Silver Knott going on to lose by a nose in the Grade One Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. The sixth foal and by far the most successful progeny of dam Suelita, the colt could provide Balding with a second 2000 Guineas success.
The aforementioned son of Gleneagles, Royal Scotsman, has been gaining valuable experience so far in his career. He beat a field including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner Mischief Magic to land his maiden success, finished third ahead of dual Group One winning Blackbeard in the Coventry Stakes before reigning victorious in the Group Two Richmond Stakes. With little to find on Newmarket form with Chaldean, he could be a dark horse in the field, capable of showing improvement over a mile.
Zoffany colt Sakheer has three runs over 6f to his name, with two wins including a Group Two success. The step up in trip isn’t guaranteed to bring out the best in the Roger Varian-trained runner, although his sire has produced a Classic winning miler in Mother Earth who landed the fillies’ equivalent in 2021.
Course-and-distance winner Silver Knott will be suited by better ground and could be a solid each-way contender available at a double-figure price. The dual Group Three winner won the Autumn Stakes at the track in October, beating Holloway Boy before showing plenty of class on US debut in Keeneland. A draw in stall seven will allow jockey William Buick to place his colt in a favourable position, and he appears the first string for Godolphin.
Stablemate Noble Style has last year’s 2000 & 1000 Guineas winning jockey James Doyle in the saddle. Doyle partnered the talented Coroebus to victory in the race twelve months ago, but the colt sadly passed away after suffering a catastrophic injury at Longchamp later on in the season, and is sadly missed.
Kingman colt Noble Style is unbeaten in three career runs, with a 5f debut win and two 6f successes to his name. He won the Group Two Gimcrack Stakes when last seen, beating a field including Marshman, Cold Case, who is unbeaten since, and Royal Scotsman. His pedigree suggests a mile could be stretching his limitations being out of Pivotal mare Eartha Kitt, who excelled over 6f, and stronger stayers are preferred.
Likeable chestnut Holloway Boy became the first to win on debut at Royal Ascot since 1996 when a surprising 40/1 winner of the Chesham Stakes. He has finished amongst the first three in each run since, but is yet to record a second success.
A good showing could be on the cards and he would be dangerous to completely rule out, however he doesn’t appear to be the most straightforward and others are more reliable. He tired late on at Doncaster when finishing third behind Auguste Rodin, hung right travelling the width of the track in the closing stages, scuppering any chance of winning. The heavy conditions may have played their part and he could fare better this time around, but is exposed and needs to reverse form with a couple of his rivals.
Of the others, outsider of the field Hi Royal is an interesting contender for Kevin Ryan. Oisin Murphy takes the ride aboard the son of former Sun Chariot Stakes winner, Street Cry mare Majestic Roi. The Kodiac colt faced a tough test on debut when finishing an excellent third in a competitive maiden at York, narrowly beaten only by Desert Order and the promising Glenfinnan when sent off at odds of 50/1, in a field of seventeen runners.
In his following race he recorded a maiden win before only managing fourth on reappearance here last month. Whilst he appears out of his depth in this company, he could be capable of outrunning his huge odds if on a going day.
Win selection:
Little Big Bear 11/2
Despite not having the best of draws in stall 13, and with stamina to prove, Little Big Bear is the selection to take a step forward and reign victorious at Newmarket on Saturday. The classy colt is an exciting talent and, whilst stablemate Auguste Rodin could go on to be a big danger in the Derby, this is the perfect challenge for Little Big Bear who is a speedier horse capable of using his acceleration to pounce late on.
Each-way selection:
Hi Royal 150/1
4:00pm – Palace House Stakes (Group 3)
Twilight Calls and Manaccan both have leading chances in this competitive handicap. However, there are many at bigger prices capable of entering calculations.
Hat-trick seeking Live In The Dream excels over the trip and is ground versatile. Whilst many others tend to run over various distances, Adam West’s charge sticks to 5f and is an in-form contender worthy of consideration.
Stuart Williams’ Existent has Oisin Murphy onboard at a track where he has enjoyed success in the past. He could outrun his big odds of 25/1.
Four-year-old filly Get Ahead finished third behind Happy Romance at Bath recently, having not had the easiest of trips. That form behind a top class filly is a good marker, and her competitiveness at Listed level could allow her to be competitive in this Group Three affair.
NEWMARKET – SUNDAY
3:00pm – Dahlia Stakes (Group 2)
It’s worth looking towards the head of the market in this contest, as favourites tend to do well in the Dahlia Stakes. The biggest priced winner in the last ten years came in 2021, when Lady Bowthorpe won at odds of 6/1. Current market leader With The Moonlight brings good international form into the race, and will be suited by quicker ground if the forecast rain fails to arrive.
If the ground remains good then Life In Motion could be one to oppose, as all of the French-raider’s form is on easier ground. Her stablemate Hidden Dimples could be one to consider at 14/1, with Ryan Moore taking the ride for André Fabre. She is by Frankel out of Manderley, a mare who finished fourth at 100/1 in the 1000 Guineas nine years ago for Richard Hannon.
Frankie Dettori’s mount Prosperous Voyage may be the one to beat. The Ralph Beckett-trained filly was narrowly beaten by Cachet in last year’s Classic at Newmarket, but went on to beat Inspiral in the Falmouth Stakes on the July Course and will be in contention if in similar form. The yard has been performing at a 24% strike rate in recent weeks, and having started the season in excellent shape, could be capable of claiming a big prize at Newmarket this weekend.
Win selection:
Prosperous Voyage 4/1
Each-way selection:
Hidden Dimples 14/1
3:40pm – 1000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1)
Dermot Weld’s Tahiyra has leading claims at the top of the market, unbeaten in two career runs and having already beaten second favourite Meditate at the Curragh. She has plenty of flashy entries and the Siyouni filly is an exciting prospect, out of dual Listed winner Tarana.
The aforementioned Meditate, for Aidan O’Brien won the Juvenile Fillies Turf at the Breeders’ Cup and it’s likely she would have fared better against Tahiyra on good ground. By No Nay Never, she has plenty of speed but has potential to improve further over a mile.
Mawj is one to consider for the places at 12/1, whilst the likeable Lezoo may struggle to hold her own over a mile, as her pedigree suggests she’s bred for the sprinting trips.
At bigger prices the likes of Caernarfon and Queen Me could be capable of improving further to outrun their odds, but may struggle to win at this level. The former, trained by Jack Channon, is a winner over course-and-distance having landed a Listed success here when last seen. She is a consistent filly and may go off shorter than her current odds of 50/1.
Win selection:
Meditate 9/2
Each-way selections:
Caernarfon 50/1
Queen Me 66/1
(All runners/prices are correct at the time of writing)
Photo by Danny Gallegos on Unsplash
THE CONDITIONAL 