Katie Midwinter (01/06/23)
The Derby, Epsom Downs, the 3rd of June, a date with destiny. This historic race has crowned champions, discovered superstars, broken hearts and scuppered dreams. It is a race that guarantees immortality with victory, the ultimate prize for anyone involved in the sport.
“The Thoroughbred exists because its selection has depended, not on experts, technicians or zoologists, but on a piece of wood: the winning post of the Epsom Derby”, a famous quote by Federico Tesio that perfectly describes the importance of the Derby on the breed itself. It is a perfect description of the prestigious contest, as many great winners have gone on to put their stamp on the breed, having a profound effect on future Classics, none more so than 2001 champion, the great Galileo.
There are only a few contenders in this year’s Derby that don’t have a direct link to Galileo, be it as a sire, dam’s sire or being by a son of the late stallion. His imprint will be seen for years to come, his legacy continued by his son Frankel who himself claimed the crown as leading sire in Great Britain and Ireland in 2021, interrupting a decade of domination by Galileo, as his own progeny Adayar claimed the Epsom Classic.
The likes of Authorized, Camelot, Australia and Golden Horn have all gone on to enjoy plenty of success as stallions, with their progeny emerging as high-quality contenders for the top prizes. Many exceptional talents have graced the turf at Epsom over the years, with many of the sport’s greatest horses becoming victorious at the track.
It is forty years since the incomparable Lester Piggott recorded his ninth and final success in the race, a tally that may never be matched, as he strode to victory aboard Teenoso. The masterful jockey had previously claimed the crown on Triple Crown hero Nijinsky thirteen years prior, followed by Roberto two years later.
Mill Reef, widely regarded as one of the greatest of all-time, tasted success in 1971, having missed out on the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket he went on to win the Classic at Epsom before winning the Eclipse Stakes, King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes as well as the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, a tremendous feat. The Ian Balding-trained horse sired his own winner of the Classic in 1978 when Shirley Heights followed in special footsteps and finished first past the post in his Classic.
The legendary Shergar provided Michael Stoute, now Sir Michael Stoute, with his first winner, showing masses of ability, blowing away his opposition in fantastic fashion. A cruel twist of fate would see his life come to a sad end, but he is always remembered in the history books as a true champion.
In this century there have been excellent winners of the race, champions who would go on to dominate the middle-distance races. Sea The Stars, 2009 victor under Michael Kinane, began his season with Classic success at Newmarket before heading to Epsom. He then went on to win the Eclipse, Juddmonte International, Irish Champion Stakes and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and has since produced high-class colts and fillies who have gone on to land many of the biggest prizes.
Aidan O’Brien has won half of the last six renewals, and remains top of the leading trainer standings with eight wins. His first came in 2001 with Galileo, and his most recent winner was the shock runaway champion Serpentine, who surprised the field with his early front-running tactics in 2020, showing no signs of tiring towards the line. Stablemate Anthony Van Dyck had won the year prior, another horse who would go on to suffer a sad ending as his career and life came to a tragic conclusion when he suffered a fatal injury contesting the Melbourne Cup.
This year, O’Brien saddles three contenders, including current market leader Auguste Rodin who will be looking to put a disappointing Newmarket run behind him, and go on to live up to the expectation surrounding him. Many have failed in the past, putting big reputations on the line to contest this tricky assignment.
The undulating nature of the Epsom track, as well as the hustle and bustle coming around that final bend into the straight, the noise of the crowd and the goings on around the course, all of these elements provide these young three-years-olds with exceptional challenges, many of which they will not have faced before.
Trainer O’Brien said “The thoroughbred breed is based on the Epsom Derby, it’s the ultimate test of the racehorse”, and who could argue with that?
THE DERBY
Auguste Rodin is the first foal of three-time Group One winning daughter of Galileo, Rhododendron, who finished second to Enable in the 2017 Oaks at Epsom. He is by Deep Impact and recorded three wins as a two-year-old, including the Group One Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes.
Despite being sent off as favourite for the 2000 Guineas, after plenty of positive chatter from the Ballydoyle camp, he was never travelling and finishing down in the field. It may be worth forgiving that run as things didn’t go his way, but more was expected of him.
A step up in trip could bring some improvement, and if any trained is able to get him back to his best, then surely Aidan O’Brien is the best candidate to do so. A slight concern is that his best form is on softer ground, but he has already been backed into favouritism once again, after a drift in his price following his Newmarket disappointment, and is likely to stay prominent towards the top of the market.
Whether or not he can go on to write his name into the history books remains to be seen. On recent form and considering the likely conditions at Epsom on Saturday, others are preferred, however, there appears to be great confidence in him from connections, and perhaps yard experience and a strong mentality will give him the edge on his rivals.
Full brother to 2021 winner Adayar, Military Order finished fourth on debut before landing his maiden win in his second and final run of a juvenile season. He has been faultless so far this term, winning two from two including a Listed prize in the Lingfield Derby Trial, beating Waipiro as the pair pulled clear of the field. That race was run on the all-weather, which may not have suited some of his rivals, but he proved he stays the 1m4f trip as his breeding would suggest.
The yard form is of slight concern, as Charlie Appleby has been performing at a 13% strike rate in the past two weeks, but they may be slowly getting up to speed and ready to release the big guns ahead of a big month in June when the Flat season really gets into full swing.
Supplemented runner Passenger won on debut in April before finishing a dead-heat third in the Dante Stakes. He was subsequently entered for the Derby, taking a similar route to last year’s winner, stablemate Desert Crown who also headed to Epsom after only two career starts following a preparation race at York.
Passenger didn’t get the smoothest passage when last seen, arguably unlucky not to claim the plaudits in the Dante, and it’s likely he has yet to be seen to the best of his ability. Sir Michael Stoute has saddled five winners in the race since his first victory in 1981, and the fact that he has trust and belief in his representative this year makes him a dangerous horse to oppose.
A popular selection on the day will be Arrest, Frankie Dettori’s final Derby ride. The John & Thady Gosden-trained Frankel colt impressed around the tight, tricky track at Chester to win the Chester Vase in his first run of the season. As a novice he recorded two wins in lower class affairs before being held by Dubai Mile on heavy ground at Saint-Cloud, perhaps unsuited by the going on that day. He is a lively contender who will likely be thereabouts in the closing stages.
Leopardstown Derby Trial winner Sprewell is used to running on soft ground or worse, and the good conditions at Epsom are unknown for the Jessica Harrington-trained contender. Whilst he is a Group Three winner over 1m2f, the form of his Leopardstown success isn’t the most impressive as he beat a maiden in Up And Under as well as the favourite Proud And Regal who was disappointing in the Irish 2000 Guineas. He could be capable of showing progression, but will have to take a big step forward to beat a field of this quality.
The Foxes has shown great promise with a number of good performances. The Dante winner’s pedigree suggests he’ll stay the extra distance at Epsom and he showed no signs of stopping at York, but did drift significantly to his right which raises slight concerns. Andrew Balding is attempting to emulate his father, who saddled Mill Reef to victory over fifty years ago, and land his first Derby victory in what would be another Classic success this season, following on from a 2000 Guineas win with Chaldean last month.
Son of Roaring Lion, Dubai Mile has plenty of useful experience in his favour and managed three wins as a juvenile including Group One success at Saint-Cloud. He has won on good to firm ground, and appears versatile.
There may be improvement to come following his Newmarket appearance, and on a firmer surface he could be seen in better light. He is well bred out of Listed winning High Chaparral mare Beach Bunny who was unlucky not to land a Group race prize in her racing career, and would be a poignant winner in what will be Roaring Lion’s only Derby representative.
White Birch impressed when second in the Dante, finishing best of all, closing on the leader and eventual winner after taking a wide route down the standside. He didn’t face trouble in running but came from the rear of the field, off the bridle early in the straight and staying on well past tiring rivals.
His Ballysax Stakes success over Up And Under puts Sprewell ahead on that formline, but he did appear to take another step forward at York and looks a strong staying type for John Joseph Murphy. Colin Keane gets a first Derby ride aboard the son of Ulysses.
The aforementioned Waipiro pulled clear of the field along with Military Order in the Lingfield Derby Trial. His previous run on the all-weather resulted in a sixth-placed finish when making his debut as a two-year-old, and the surface may not have suited him at Lingfield, therefore his performance could be upgraded. The Ed Walker-trained colt won his maiden at Newmarket in April, and comes into the race with good each-way claims.
The unbeaten Artistic Star is an unexposed colt by Galileo out of Group One winning sprinter Nechita. He has done nothing wrong in his career to date and could be a dark horse lurking at a big price.
Apparent Ballydoyle second string San Antonio is two from two this term with a maiden win followed by a Listed success when beating Alder at Chester. He beat Sprewell to finish third in a Gowran Park maiden at the end of last season, a length behind winner Immutable who has since won in handicap company.
Adelaide River was well beaten by Arrest in testing conditions at Chester, and had previously finished a distance behind Dubai Mile at Saint-Cloud. He could be seen to better effect on a sounder surface and is the first foal of Group-placed filly Could It Be Love, by 2014 Derby champion Australia.
The exposed Dear My Friend appears out of his depth in this field on Dante form, but has been gaining valuable experience in his career so far. This is a tougher test however, and the step up in trip isn’t guaranteed to suit.
King Of Steel makes his first appearance for his new yard. He was withdrawn from the Dante field after getting upset in the stalls, and hasn’t had the ideal preparation ahead of his Epsom task. It is easy to forgive his Doncaster disappointment on heavy ground in a testing race, and he is an intriguing runner for Roger Varian. There is plenty of stamina on his dam’s side, which should bode well for the colt as he steps up in trip.
Prediction:
- Military Order
- Arrest
- Waipiro
Win selection:
Military Order 9/2 – Charlie Appleby, William Buick
Each-way selection:
Waipiro 20/1 – Ed Walker, Tom Marquand
The rest of the card:
12:50pm – Diomed Stakes (Group 3)
Imperial Fighter 16/1 (EW) – Andrew Balding, Oisin Murphy
Highland Avenue has snippets of good form, being a Listed winner and having finished half-a-length second to Mostahdaf at Sandown in the past, but he has shown little form following a gelding operation, and may be worth opposing at 6/4.
At the prices the value could be in Andrew Balding’s Imperial Fighter. Oisin Murphy takes the ride aboard the four-year-old who has been significantly out of form recently, but did make a bold move when running solo at Newmarket following a heavy ground disappointment at Doncaster.
On better ground he has shown promise, placing in two Grade Three contests as a juvenile, including when two-lengths behind Coroebus in the Autumn Stakes. He finished third in the 2000 Guineas, and hasn’t been in a favourable position on good ground in a race since. Imperial Fighter is an enticing each-way selection at a double-figure price.
2:10pm – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3)
Shaara 10/1 (EW) – John & Thady Gosden, Jim Crowley
Prosperous Voyage is the class of the field on a going day, but she has become increasingly unreliable and may be worth opposing at such a short price. Whilst Potapova and Roman Mist both bring good course form into the race, having finished second and third respectively in this race twelve months ago, the former must show she has recovered from issues found when pulled up at Goodwood last month.
There could be an improving filly lurking in the field at a bigger price, and the value price may be Shaara. She won her only juvenile race before recording a hat-trick of wins during her three-year-old campaign, including a Listed contest at Yarmouth.
Whilst she has been exposed at this level in the past, she may be capable of showing further progression now as a four-year-old. Her run on soft ground at Newmarket may not have been to her liking, but she could come on plenty for her first run of the season, as she did last year.
3:20pm – “Dash” Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
Lihou 12/1 (EW) – David Evans, Hollie Doyle
The fastest five furlongs in the world, the Epsom Dash will be over in a flash, with one sprinter reigning victorious in this extremely open contest. It’s a difficult race to predict, and it may be worth sticking with old favourites who will be sent off at attractive prices.
Lihou is a very consistent horse, often just finding one or two better but usually running a solid race. He can be competitive off a mark of 84 and has the benefit of a high draw as well as winning experience over course-and-distance, which could give him an advantage.
5:05pm – Class 2 Handicap
Mr Wagyu 6/1 (EW) – John Quinn, Jason Hart
Reigning champion Mr Wagyu has proven himself at the course in this race and is 2lbs higher this time around. He has performed well off a higher mark in the past, now rated 96, and could put his recent disappointments behind him and bounce back to winning form.
All runners/prices are correct at the time of writing.
Photo by Danny Gallegos on Unsplash
THE CONDITIONAL 