Katie Midwinter (31/05/23)
THE OAKS
Savethelastdance put in an exceptional performance to win the Cheshire Oaks in perfect preparation for Classic success at Epsom. The well-bred daughter of Galileo is out of Grade Two winning mare Daddys Lil Darling, and with plenty of class in her pedigree she could turn out to be a special filly and is a deserving favourite in this contest.
Her trainer, Aidan O’Brien, is attempting a fourth successive victory in the race that would take his tally to eleven wins, two shy of record holder Robert Robson who saddled thirteen Oaks winners in the early nineteenth century. If the favourite is to continue the Ballydoyle dominance, she will follow in the footsteps of magnificent fillies in Love, the fastest winner in Epsom history, Snowfall, record-holder of the widest winning margin when a sixteen-length winner in 2021, and most recently the formidable Tuesday, who landed the 2022 renewal on the date she was foaled.
Prior to Savethelastdance’s win on the Roodee, she recorded a maiden success at Leopardstown beating stablemate Boogie Woogie and Dermot Weld’s Azazat, in second and third respectively, both of whom have subsequently won. She has shown progression with each run and if she is able to show further improvement and cope with the undulating nature of the Epsom track, she will be tough to beat and the market is speaking overwhelmingly in her favour as her price continues to shorten.
John & Thady Gosden’s Soul Sister shot to the top end of the market with a surprising Musidora Stakes success at York recently. She was sent off at odds of 18/1 on the Knavesmire but comfortably beat a good field of fillies to claim the plaudits. The step up in trip appeared to suit and the Frankel filly could show further improvement over 1m4f.
Daughter of the late Roaring Lion, Running Lion, would be a poignant winner in the hands of Oisin Murphy. She has shown plenty of class in her career to date, unbeaten since finishing fourth on debut, with four successes to her name as well as a Listed prize. She will need to show further progression, but has shaped as though a step up in trip will suit and is a lively contender.
Eternal Hope is bidding for a third straight success as she makes her turf debut for a Charlie Appleby yard that has been struggling to find winners in recent weeks. She was impressive at Lingfield when beating Be Happy, but her lack of turf experience is a concern, especially considering she is out of a dam who failed to show any form away from the all-weather.
David Menuisier’s Heartache Tonight, a half-sister to the brave Wonderful Tonight, has plenty to find at this level on form, and is more exposed than many of her rivals, but does benefit from having gained experience in tough races in France, making her British debut at Epsom. She hasn’t been beaten too far in two Group level races, therefore could be capable of entering the frame and is a big price at 25/1.
Be Happy doesn’t have too much to find with Eternal Hope, and could reverse form on the turf. Her form in the Group Three Prix Penelope behind the unbeaten Pensee Du Jour reads well, and it would be no surprise to see her outrun her odds and finish closer than the market suggests.
Sea Of Roses finished second at Saint-Cloud, three-quarters-of-a-length ahead of Be Happy, but has since disappointed when her limitations were exposed at York. She could well be better than she showed when fifth of eight in the recent Group Three affair, but her maiden win over Infinite Cosmos isn’t quite as impressive as it once was.
Despite putting in a respectable effort to finish fourth in the 1000 Guineas, Caernarfon may not be as effective over the extra half-a-mile, as her pedigree suggests her stamina will be stretched in a 1m4f race. Bright Diamond is of a similar mould, with her sire possessing speed in abundance, as well as an ability to race effectively over a mile, and her dam struggling to prove herself over the middle-distances on track.
Maman Joon is a largely unknown quantity, having only been seen once on a racecourse when a well-beaten second to 33/1 shot Gather Ye Rosebuds who disappointed when upped in class on a firmer surface. The soft ground at Newbury may not have suited this daughter of Sea The Stars, who should be guaranteed to stay the trip being out of Dorcas Lane, a mare who successfully landed black-type success over 1m2f and placed in two Group Two contests over 1m4f.
Justify filly Red Riding Hood completes the line up as the third Ballydoyle representative in the field. She is slightly overlooked, as her form behind Caroline Street, who had previously finished a length-and-a-half behind Auguste Rodin, could work out well. The second in the recent Naas contest, Lumiere Rock, is a Group Three winner at the Curragh, beating Be Happy by three-and-a-quarter-lengths. Red Riding Hood sported blinkers for the first time when last seen and connections have opted for the headgear once again.
On debut she was beaten only by Alseyoob, a Lope De Vega filly winless since but who did manage to get within two-lengths of impressive 1000 Guineas winner Mawj when the pair met in Meydan, and had previously beaten Running Lion by two-and-a-quarter-lengths on debut. Whilst Red Riding Hood may be found wanting in this company, as her price suggests, she is available at big odds of 33/1 and there are certainly worse each-way selections.
Win selection:
Running Lion 11/2 – John & Thady Gosden, Oisin Murphy
Each-way selections:
Heartache Tonight 20/1 – David Menuisier, Cristian Demuro
Red Riding Hood 40/1 – A P O’Brien, Wayne Lordan
The rest of the card:
2:00pm – Woodcote Stakes (Conditions Race)
The Camden Colt 5/1 – Richard Hannon, Ryan Moore
The Footstepsinthesand two-year-old has had two runs to date, finishing third on soft ground on debut at Chester before landing a maiden success over 6f at Haydock last week. Whilst he did have the benefit of a prior run, with many of his rivals making their first racecourse appearance, time will tell how good the form could turn out to be and the leading trio all pulled clear of the rest of the field. Second-placed Thunder Blue was an expensive purchase who will likely feature at Group level in future. The Camden Colt could take another step forward at Epsom in the hands of Ryan Moore, in what is an open and intriguing contest.
3:10pm – Coronation Cup (Group 1)
Emily Upjohn 3/1 – John & Thady Gosden, Frankie Dettori
The four-year-old daughter of Sea The Stars has done little wrong in her career to date, winning four races and suffering defeat on two occasions. Only narrowly beaten by future Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Tuesday in the Oaks, after stumbling coming out of the stalls and losing lengths as well as her composure. It may be worth putting a line through her disappointing Ascot appearance in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, as she and fellow three-year-old Westover were both too free and failed to settle early on, quickly ruining their chances of claiming the prestigious prize.
Emily Upjohn bounced back in excellent fashion to win on British Champions Day, showing her class and proving the early excitement surrounding her as a juvenile was justified. She has gone well fresh in the past and has coped with good conditions, therefore should be primed and ready for the challenge ahead against the boys.
There is stiff opposition in the field, but the filly does receive weight and has only 3lbs to find with the highest-rated colt in the field, Westover. The Irish Derby winner coped well with the undulating nature of the Epsom track when last seen here, but struggled for an opening when contesting the English equivalent and was an eyecatcher when finishing best of all late on. He finished a respectable sixth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe before travelling to Meydan where he was second in the Dubai Sheema Classic, and will be difficult to beat if he puts in a repeat performance.
Hurricane Lane could benefit from an easier surface and has shown frailties, now a five-year-old, but does retain ability as shown at Newmarket and will be a danger if at his best. Point Lonsdale has gone from strength to strength after a three-year-old campaign in which he was only seen once when tenth in the 2000 Guineas. He had shown exceptional promise when beaten only by Native Trail in his juvenile campaign, and could now be making up for lost time as a four-year-old.
The outsider of an open field of five is German-raider Tunnes, a Group One winner at Munich who makes his British debut fresh from a winning reappearance at Cologne.
3:45pm – Class 2 Handicap
Honiton 4/1 – John & Thady Gosden, James Doyle
The handicap preceding the feature race on the card is an open contest in which John & Thady Gosden’s gelding Honiton currently heads the market. The son of Dark Angel has run well in most of his seven races to date, barring a disappointing Ascot appearance last summer and was subsequently gelded. He may have needed the run when first time out at Goodwood, and was perhaps unsuited by the heavy going, but proved he was back to form at Newmarket and has been given a 4lbs rise for his first victory of the season. Off a mark of 97 he remains of interest, and could still be ahead of the handicapper with further untapped potential yet to be shown.
5:45pm – Class 2 Handicap
Riot 10/1 (EW) – David O’Meara, Jason Watson
The gelded son of Kingman recorded his first win for his new yard having made the switch from Irealnd last summer. A couple of useful performances at Ayr followed his arrival at David O’Meara’s, and he opened his new campaign with an all-weather success at Chelmsford, beating three rivals.
Better was perhaps expected of him when fifth at York recently, although he did stay on well enough to finish amongst the extra places, claiming the fifth-place prize. He failed to stay with the leading quartet in the final furlong, but may be worth sticking with off a mark of 82, capable of entering calculations once again with the six-year-old perhaps better suited to the slightly easier ground lacking ‘firm’ in its description.
All runners/prices are correct at the time of writing.
Photo by Philippe Oursel on Unsplash
THE CONDITIONAL 