Katie Midwinter (12/07/23)
THURSDAY
1:50pm – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3)
A high-quality field of well-bred colts and promising staying types line up in this Group Three contest. Galileo colt Tower Of London, brother to St Leger winner Capri, has plenty of stamina in his pedigree and has already proven himself over staying trips, winning over 1m5f at Down Royal when last seen. He did have 7lbs claimer Killian Hennessy onboard when beating runner-up 84-rated Ibrahimovic convincingly in the handicap, and earned himself a rating of 109. The Listed-winner appears ready for a step up to this level, and is a worthy favourite at the head of the market.
Roaring Lion colt Saint George was last seen giving Gregory a battle in the Queen’s Vase at the Royal Meeting. That form could work out very well if Gregory goes on to live up to the promise he has shown so far in his career. Andrew Balding’s charge is an exciting prospect for his connections and could be capable of posing a threat to the favourite.
Godolphin representative Castle Way shouldn’t be discounted. The hat-trick seeking son of Almanzor is a half-brother to Palace Pier and has plenty of stamina in his pedigree. A 425,000gns purchase as a yearling, he is yet to be seen over further than a mile-and-a-quarter, therefore isn’t proven to stay the extra distance. His pedigree suggests the step up in trip will suit, but his two main market rivals come into the race as proven stayers and are therefore more reliable selections.
2:25pm – July Stakes (Group 2)
Thunder Blue 16/1 (EW) – Dominic Ffrench Davis, Kevin Stott
Blue Point colt Thunder Blue showed promise on debut before landing a maiden success at Goodwood. He then featured in the Norfolk Stakes, finishing a decent fifth despite being hampered late on. A step back up in trip to 6f could allow him to be more competitive, and he is an enticing price at double-figure odds in this nine-runner field.
3:00pm – Class 2 (Heritage Handicap)
There are plenty of horses in this field capable of claiming the plaudits. With seventeen runners, many of whom have been thriving of late, performing consistently well, it is a tricky race to predict but there is each-way value in the field.
The mount of Ryan Moore is Kevin Ryan’s gelding Washington Heights, who has finished second in all three of his most recent starts. He has been given a 4lbs rise for a head second to Quinalt when the pair last met, but they meet on closer this time around, with only 4lbs separating them, as opposed to the 10lbs between them at York.
The aforementioned Quinalt has 5lbs claimer Connor Planas onboard once again, bidding for six-timer. He is now 31lbs higher than when he began his winning sequence in April, but could continue to defy the odds by showing even further progression.
Lightly-raced Tajalla chased home Lady Hamana in the Scurry Stakes last month, and now drops in class making his handicap debut. He is an unexposed type who could be dangerous off a mark of 97.
Henry Candy’s hat-trick seeking Be Frank is 5lbs higher for his recent Windsor success, now running off a mark of 84. Frankel filly Frankness remains on the same mark as when sixth at Royal Ascot, with 3lbs taken off her racing weight once again, this time by Callum Hutchinson.
Promising colt Tough Enough is one to consider for James Tate, 4lbs up for his successful seasonal reappearance, whilst Richard Hannon’s Dark Thirty must bounce back to form but has the ability to be competitive off a mark of 91.
At a bigger price an interesting contender is Richard Fahey’s Rousing Encore. The son of Acclamation is yet to build on a promising juvenile campaign in which he recorded two wins and placed in a Group Two. He made his handicap debut when last seen at York, running off a mark of 97, making no impression. Now he is 4lbs lower and may be worth sticking with in hope that he may replicate his form of old.
Each-way selection:
Rousing Encore 20/1 – Richard Fahey, Oisin Orr
3:35pm – Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 2)
Adayar is back in action after a third-placed finish in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. Despite performing below par, he finished close behind Luxembourg, and ahead of the likes of My Prospero and Bay Bridge. It’s likely the winner on that day, Mostahdaf, put in a career best and the performances of the horses in behind may be worth forgiving.
Derby winner Adayar is 10lbs clear of the feld on ratings here, receiving 3lbs from stablemate Global Storm and on level weights with Israr and Grand Alliance. If able to bounce back and perform to the level expected of him, he should be too classy for this field and could assert his dominance once again.
Win selection:
Adayar 1/2 – Charlie Appleby, William Buick
4:45pm – Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed Race)
Unbeaten Dubawi colt Imperial Emperor heads the market after a recent success over course and distance. He has recorded two comfortable successes at lower level and now steps up in class for the first time. Out of Grade One winning mare Zhukova, half-sister to Ghaiyyath, the unexposed brother to First Ruler has plenty of class in his pedigree and could take a significant step forward for an in-form Charlie Appleby yard currently on a 44% strike rate.
Sir Michael Stoute’s representative Nostrum is already a Group Three winner and finished third in the Dewhurst Stakes behind subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean when last seen. On that level of form the Kingman colt certainly sets the standard in this field, now down in class, but the unexposed Godolphin runner could be a threat to Nostrum if he is able to cope with the step up to Listed level.
Unexposed Embesto is another classy colt looking to extend his unbeaten run. The son of Roaring Lion has impressed in two runs this term, showing progression and gaining valuable experience. He will need to prove himself at this level.
Mostabshir has struggled to perform at Group One level, but has proven himself in lower class races and now needs to prove he is able to compete at Listed level. New Endeavour has been running well in handicap races, but has plenty to find with Nostrum on ratings and may not be as effective in this company.
The outsider of the field Wildfell is bidding for a five-timer for Peter Chapple-Hyam, unbeaten since joining his new yard and being gelded. The three-year-old showed little ability as a juvenile over the sprinting trips, but has appeared to relish the step up in trip and is a total of 28lbs higher than when opening his campaign at Lingfield in March.
This is a big step up in class and whilst it’s unlikely he will be able to compete against some well-bred promising youngsters representing powerful connections, he is a horse in-form and they are often dangerous to rule out.
Win selection:
Nostrum 5/2 – Sir Michael Stoute, Ryan Moore
5:20pm – Class 3 Handicap
Glenfinnan 4/1 – Andrew Balding, Rob Hornby
Andrew Balding’s Harry Angel colt Glennfinnan caught the eye last year in a promising debut campaign which saw him race three times, showing improvement with each run. Noted as a two-year-old to follow in The Conditional’s Juvenile Focus last autumn, he makes his seasonal reappearance here in his first run at Newmarket. Whilst he may improve for the outing, he is worth sticking with and is a horse to keep on side in future.
Following a satisfying debut run he featured at York’s Ebor meeting, running in a competitive maiden, touched off by the odds-on Godolphin favourite when outrunning his huge odds of 33/1, with the 2000 Guineas runner-up Hi Royal in third. There were a number of eye-catchers in the race who have gone on to run well including the likes of Yacowlef.
The York form is strong, and Glenfinnan was able to back up his performance on the Knavesmire with a maiden success at Yarmouth. The Kingsclere yard are back in form, performing at a 25% strike rate in recent weeks, and Glenfinnan could continue their impressive run by recording another victory for the yard.
FRIDAY
1:50pm – Class 2 (Heritage Handicap)
Mighty River 12/1 (EW) – James Tate, Neil Callan
The three-year-old Siyouni colt has been performing consistently well this year, failing to feature in the finish only when running on soft ground at Doncaster in April. He returned to the winner’s enclosure when last seen to record his third career success, and was subsequently given a 4lbs rise by the handicapper. The course-and-distance could still be fairly well treated off a mark of 91 and looks to make it back-to-back wins at the track.
3:00pm – Class 2 (Heritage Handicap)
Course-and-distance winner Live Your Dream has made two promising appearances over a mile-and-a-half this term, off the back of a lengthy lay-off. The six-year-old gelding will be suited to the step up in trip here, having previously shown he possesses stamina in abundance with wins in staying races. He should be fit and ready for this challenge, and looks the one to beat in this field.
Kihavah is seeking a five-timer, now running off a career-high Flat mark of 96. He has continued to perform well and will likely be in contention once again.
Current outsider of the field Berkshire Rocco’s recent formline will fail to attract many supporters, but he had previously shown promise as a stayer and more had been expected of him.
Whether or not he is unsuited by handicaps remains to be seen, but he does possess more talent than he has shown in recent months, and perhaps being dropped to a mark of 97 could allow him to return to some form and run well enough to have something to build upon going forward.
A return to an all-weather track failed to inspire the son of Sir Percy when last seen, but he is a good each-way price if he is able to reignite his passion for racing, and may be one for the extra places.
Win selection:
Live Your Dream 11/4 – Saeed bin Suroor, Kevin Stott
Each-way selection:
Berkshire Rocco 18/1 – Andrew Balding, Rob Hornby
3:35pm – Falmouth Stakes (Group 1)
A competitive Group One for fillies and mares is the feature race on Friday’s card at Newmarket, with George Boughey’s recent Pretty Polly Stakes winner Via Sistana at the head of the market. The five-year-old mare was impressive at the Curragh to land a hat-trick of wins and her first Group One success, and she sets the standard in this field on recent form.
John and Thady Gosden’s Nashwa is still searching for her first win of the season, yet to prove herself as a four-year-old, failing twice at both Group Two and Group Three level, respectively. A drop back in trip is an interesting move, but could allow her to reignite the spark she had shown previously, which saw her record successive Group One prizes during her three-year-old campaign.
Remarquee remains largely unexposed at this level, and there could be further improvement to come from this daughter of Kingman. She finished a length behind Tahiyra in the Coronation Stakes, having not had the best of passages in the closing stages. That performance could be marked up, and she comes into the race as an exciting challenger to the leading pair in the market, receiving the age allowance.
Another three-year-old in the field is hat-trick seeking Coppice. She beat twenty-eight rivals to land the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot, when running off a mark of 97. This is a different assignment, but she is another capable of showing further progression and may be a danger lurking in the field.
Prosperous Voyage is, despite being extremely talented on her day, less reliable than she once was and has been exposed at this level in the past. The course-and-distance winner is partnered by William Buick on this occasion, but must find more to compete with the standard of fillies she faces here.
A drop back in trip could allow Never Ending Story to bounce back to form whilst it would be no surprise to see Random Harvest make the frame at a double-figure price. Lightly-raced Amenyah is an intriguing horse going forward, but will likely need the run on her first appearance since finishing sixth in the 1000 Guineas last year.
Win selection:
Nashwa 4/1 – John & Thady Gosden, Hollie Doyle
All runners/prices are correct at the time of publish.
THE CONDITIONAL 