Katie Midwinter (21/08/23)
York’s showcase meeting, the Ebor Festival, kicks off in style on Wednesday with a high-quality seven-race card that includes the Group One International Stakes. Superstar colt Paddington is attempting to extend his unbeaten run to land an eighth successive victory, his fifth at the highest level, in the four-runner race that includes the impressive Prince Of Wales’s Stakes champion, Mostahdaf.
The prestigious contest has been won by many of the best equine athletes in history. The inaugural running was won by Roberto in 1972 for legendary trainer Vincent O’Brien, and five other Ballydoyle residents have won since, making Aidan O’Brien joint-leading trainer along with Sir Michael Stoute whose Derby winner Desert Crown’s anticipated participation was denied as the luckless colt was ruled out after suffering a career-threatening injury.
The likes of Authorized, Australia, Ulysses, Roaring Lion and Ghaiyyath, to name a few, have all claimed the trophy in this century, joining a list of illustrious names. Perhaps the most famous and memorable renewal came in 2012, when the incomparable Frankel won with little exertion in his usual impressive fashion. Sea The Stars was successful in the race three years prior, in a tactical four-runner affair, striding to the front with ease and outbattling his rivals to add another prize to a distinguished campaign that must be near impossible to match.
Last year’s renewal saw the star of his generation Baaeed prove a step up in trip was within his capabilities as he saw off the challenge of former champion Mishriff and others to put in one of the performances of the season, emulating his sire Sea The Stars to win on the Knavesmire.
This year it is the turn of the next generation’s star, PADDINGTON, who is being touted as one of the best horses on turf in the world. The son of Siyouni landed his maiden success at the Curragh last autumn following a debut defeat at Ascot, the only blemish on his record to date. He is unbeaten as a three-year-old and has proven himself a versatile individual, capable of taking on, and beating, his older, more experienced rivals, having already cemented himself as the best of his generation by convincingly beating Classic winner Chaldean in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
This will be the longest trip he has attempted, half-a-furlong further than his Eclipse win. Out of Montjeu mare Modern Eagle, a winner over 1m5f, Paddington has shown his capabilities over a mile-and-a-quarter, fending off a rallying Emily Upjohn when in receipt of 7lbs at Sandown. He has shown heart and mental strength to overcome any rival, and will be very difficult to beat on the Knavesmire.
Last seen staying on stoutly to repel the challenge of French-raider Facteur Cheval in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood, Paddington has been able to overcome every challenge he has faced so far, proving himself time after time and seemingly progressing with each run. With age and experience he will surely show further improvement, as he matures and grows into his large frame. An eye-catching good-looking colt, he possesses the qualities needed to become one of the greatest, and is already incredibly popular, with his exceptional name adding to his appeal with fans.
Despite Paddington setting the standard in the field, and likely to be an overwhelming favourite on the day, he faces stiff opposition in the form of the aforementioned Mostahdaf. The John & Thady Gosden-trained horse blew his rivals away at Royal Ascot, with a magnificent four-length victory over the likes of Luxembourg, Adayar, My Prospero and Bay Bridge.
Whilst on first glance it could be interpreted as a flattering success for the five-year-old, an unexpected win for a horse that had five-lengths to find with Bay Bridge on the Brigadier Gerard Stakes form, and had ended his 2022 campaign by finishing as a tailed off, last finisher of the field in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, his first appearance of the year showed promise. In a Riyadh Group Three contest he won convincingly, before finishing fourth to the world’s highest-rated horse, on Timeform figures, Equinox, in the Dubai Sheema Classic, which was no mean feat.
It’s dangerous to underestimate the son of Frankel who has shown his class and ability to compete at the highest level already this season. A horse that has the tendency to go well fresh, he has been off since his win in June and will be fighting fit and ready for one of his toughest challenges yet with Frankie Dettori taking the ride.
His stablemate Nashwa is no pushover and is a filly capable of performing at this level. The trip raises slight question marks however, as she has been exposed in Group company over the distance this season. A drop back to a mile reignited a spark that had appeared to be waning, but a step back up in trip saw her beaten a length in the Nassau Stakes.
Whilst the distance she was beaten doesn’t suggest all hope is lost with Nashwa, being beaten by 115 and 114 rated fillies, respectively, gives the indication that she faces a tough assignment against 128 rated Mostahdaf, and 125 rated, with the potential to be rated much higher, Paddington, despite receiving 3lbs from the former.
Course-and-distance winner The Foxes completes the line-up, representing the Kingsclere yard for Andrew Balding. Rated 113, he is the lowest rated in the field, and must show significant improvement if he is going to threaten the main protagonists.
The Dante Stakes winner put in a good effort to finish fifth in the Derby, but appeared more comfortable when dropped back to 1m2f in the Invitational Stakes where he finished second. He blew the start at Belmont Park when drawn widest of all, and had plenty of ground to make up with the leaders in the closing stages. The Churchill colt showed a tremendous burst of speed to gain lengths in the finish, but was just denied by a fast finishing Far Bridge.
Balding’s charge certainly has ability, and he is a likable type who shows willingness and a battling attitude. Whilst he may not be ready to compete with the rivals he faces at York, it will be interesting to see how he gets on in a field of this quality, and if he is able to take another step forward.
Paddington 8/13 – A P O’Brien, Ryan Moore
1:50pm – Class 2 (Heritage Handicap)
Veteran sprinter Copper Knight has enjoyed seven wins on the Knavesmire, most recently in July when running off a mark of 80. Now rated 2lbs higher, he is of interest but others are preferred if the ground is on the firmer side.
John Butler’s Kuwait City is a dangerous contender if on a going day, 4lbs higher than when victorious here in May. A strong pace will suit and he carries a feather weight of 8st 2lbs.
Nomadic Empire must improve on his recent performances, but is another well-handicapped if he is able to find his form, likewise last year’s winner Bergerac, whose performances have been below par this term.
Old favourite Mondammej may be worth sticking with, now 3lbs below his last winning mark, but is winless in twenty runs and is advised each-way only. The nod goes to Julie Camacho’s eight-year-old MAKANAH who always runs well at the track and is now 4lbs below his last winning mark.
Makanah 25/1 – Julie Camacho, Paul Hanagan
2:25pm – Acomb Stakes (Group 3)
Market leader Ballymount Boy finished a length second to subsequent Prix Morny winner Vandeek when the pair met at Goodwood earlier this month. That formline sets the standard in this field, but there are many unexposed types capable of showing the progression needed to match the level of the favourite.
The Camacho colt cost €110,000 purchase as a two-year-old, €8,000 as a yearling, and represents trainer Adrian Keatley who has a 40% strike rate at the track this season. Out of a Footstepsinthesand mare and a half-brother to a number of winners, he landed his maiden at Hamilton, beating a field that included next-time out winner Media Shooter.
His best form so far is on a slower surface however, and it promises to be on the firmer side come Wednesday which may be a cause for concern. He has left himself with plenty to do in his last two runs but has made up ground well on his rivals, displaying a good attitude and fighting spirit and, whilst he is far from the finished article, he possesses raw talent and a step up to 7f could allow him to settle better and be in control of his own destiny.
Churchill colt COGITATE made a successful start to his career with a debut victory at Newbury last month. Racing keenly and showing greenness, he will surely have learnt plenty from the experience, but he did show a good burst of speed to stride away from his rivals in a convincing manner. The form of the race is yet to be franked but he did beat one subsequent winner in King’s Gambit, and many of the others could show improvement when they run again.
Edwardian finished second to Listed winner Son Of Corballis whose Tipperary Stakes win has been working out well. The No Nay Never colt was slowly into stride on debut and struggled to gain on the eventual winner, always on the back foot, struggling to mount a dangerous challenge. However, he fared much better in his following run, with the benefit of experience, but again showed greenness, taking his time coming out of the stalls and running around in the final furlongs. The Ballydoyle representative clearly has ability, but whether or not he is ready to win a race at this level remains to be seen.
Course-and-distance winner Loose Cannon made his only racecourse start in late July, beating a useful field of juveniles, battling hard to beat fellow newcomer Candonomore. It’s likely William Haggas’ juvenile will come on for the run, and the proven form over the distance at the track is a positive. A first-time tongue-tie is tried.
It may be worth looking on the bright side with 120,000gns purchase Hot Fuss, the seventh foal of winning Galileo mare, Natural Bloom. One of the more experienced runners in the field with three races behind him, the Calyx colt finished a respectable fifth in the Chesham Stakes before breaking his maiden tag at Salisbury.
Now back up in class, he has proven himself as a lively contender in black-type races, beaten only a-length-and-a-quarter by winner Snellen, who has disappointed since, at Royal Ascot. His recent success was visually impressive, convincingly beating a horse in Cool Dividend who then finished second to Kingdom Of Riches, runner-up to Indian Run at Ascot in July.
The aforementioned Eve Johnson Houghton colt, Indian Run, finished third to dual winner Starlust and the promising Array on debut at Newbury, before finishing in first place at Ascot where he travelled strongly coming from the rear of the field to claim the plaudits.
Cogitate 10/3 – Charles Hills, William Buick
3:00pm – Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2)
John & Thady Gosden’s GREGORY carries a 3lbs penalty for winning the Queen’s Vase as he attempts to extend winning streak and remain unbeaten on his fourth racecourse start. Likely to be a stayer for the future with plenty of stamina in his pedigree, the Golden Horn colt is already proven over 1m6f.
A drop back in trip is of no concern as he has the speed required to win in middle-distance races, as shown on two previous occasions, including in Listed company and, although he hasn’t yet shown an electric turn of foot, he has a high cruising speed which makes him difficult to pass.
The race lacks a clear pace angle, which may convince jockey Frankie Dettori to determine his own fate aboard the unbeaten colt and stride forward. Gregory made much of the running to win at Royal Ascot and if he dictates the pace with a strong gallop, he can ensure it is a stiff stamina test, which would give him the perfect opportunity to claim the victory. An attempt at a Classic could be next at Doncaster, as he is set to line up in the St Leger next month.
Castle Way proved his staying capabilities with success in a 1m5f Group Three contest at Newmarket last month, beating Queen’s Vase runner-up Saint Georg by half-a-length in third with Tower Of London splitting the pair in second. It was an impressive performance by Almanzor colt who cost 425,000gns as a yearling.
A half-brother to the magnificent Palace Pier, who excelled over a mile, Castle Way has plenty of class in his family, with the added stamina element proving useful. He is yet to race over the trip of 1m4f but has proven speed over 1m and 1m2f, which should allow him to be competitive as he bids for a four-timer.
Japanese-bred Continuous was unbeaten as a juvenile, with two wins from two races including a Saint-Cloud Group Three. He has been exposed as a three-year-old, struggling to make an impression at the highest level and yet to record a win so far this season.
A fair third in the Dante Stakes followed by an eighth-place finish in the Prix du Jockey Club, Continuous then finished a distant second to King Of Steel in the King Edward VIII Stakes. The Chantilly Group One may not have been run to suit, with a strong pace set and the eventual winner, unbeaten star Ace Impact, coming from the rear of the field to win convincingly. This race doesn’t appear to be as hot a contest as his other races this term and, whilst he may find one or two too good, he is likely to be in contention in the closing stages.
Artistic Star showed promise in his first two starts, winning twice and beating some promising horses such as Torito. Seventh in the Derby was no disgrace, but he is yet to prove he has the capabilities to be a top class performer at Group level. With plenty to find to reverse form with Continuous, the Galileo colt must show improvement if he is to compete with the favourites in this field.
Outsider of the field is James Ferguson’s charge, Canberra Legend. He is another contender who has been exposed when stepping up in class this season and more is needed. With 7lbs to find on ratings, he faces a tough task.
Gregory 5/4 – John & Thady Gosden, Frankie Dettori
4:10pm – Class 2 (Heritage Handicap)
CHARGING THUNDER hasn’t finished out of the top three when racing on ground with firm in the description and a step up to two-miles is an intriguing move by connections, considering he is a half-brother to classy stayer Prince Of Arran, who achieved a career-high rating of 114.
The David O’Meara-trained five-year-old is 5lbs lower than his last winning mark, and hasn’t been seen to best effect so far this term, with ground conditions a reasonable excuse as well as running in higher class races. A drop in class on a sounder surface could see him show masses of improvement in the hands of in-form jockey Daniel Tudhope who is currently performing at a strike-rate of 30%.
Tony Martin has an overall strike-rate of 19% at York and an Irish-raider from his yard is usually worth keeping an eye on. The booking of jockey Ryan Moore onboard the Iffraaj gelding Zanndabad ensures he is one for the shortlist.
Progressive course-and-distance winner Robert Johnson has been enjoying a fruitful campaign with five victories, now rated 29lbs higher than when successful at Catterick in April. His second-place finish at Goodwood when last seen with 3lbs claimer Paula Muir onboard, showed he is still in good order and capable of performing despite running off a career-high Flat mark of 83.
Third in the aforementioned Goodwood contest was Gordon Elliott’s Tronador, who remains off the same mark of 79 and is of interest. He could give another bold account of himself, and may find the sounder surface more to his liking.
At the bottom of the weights is another Irish-raider in the form of Grappa Nonino, representing Dermot Weld with in-form Saffie Osborne onboard. The gelded son of Teofilo runs off a mark of 72, 5lbs higher than his recent success at the Curragh. He stays the trip well and often thrives in competitive staying handicaps, indicating another strong showing may be on the cards.
Charging Thunder 20/1 – David O’Meara, Daniel Tudhope
All runners/prices are correct at the time of publication.
THE CONDITIONAL 