Katie Midwinter (08/09/23)
IRISH CHAMPIONS FESTIVAL – SATURDAY – LEOPARDSTOWN
1:45pm – Ingabelle Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies)
Galileo filly Content is the sole Ballydoyle representative in the field, and has already beaten Apricot Ice to win her maiden but did finish behind Serious Notions on debut. The latter, trained by Ger Lyons, was unlucky not to make a winning start to her career at this track, beaten a nose by Buttons, but she could not build on that performance and finished second in her subsequent appearance, raising question marks about the level of form.
Kitty Rose put in an emphatic performance on debut, winning at odds of 25/1 for trainer Natalia Lupini. The daughter of Invincible Army is respected, and could improve further on her second appearance, as could Jessica Harrington’s Sea The Moon filly, Sea The Boss, who impressed to win her maiden at Tipperary on Sunday.
Another Lupini runner in the field is Making Time, a Kessaar filly who landed her maiden at the track last month. She finished third to the promising Johannes Brahms, who has since placed twice in black-type company, on debut, showing greenness and not getting the easiest passage through the race, but stayed on strongly.
Each-way selection:
Sea The Boss 10/1– Mrs John Harrington, Shane Foley
2:15pm – Juvenile Stakes (Group 2)
Frankel colt Diego Velazquez, a close relation to top performers Broome and Point Lonsdale, was a 2,400,000gns purchase as a yearling.
The Aidan O’Brien-trained favourite made a winning start to his career with success at the Curragh last month on his eagerly anticipated debut. He had previously had a hold up that delayed his first appearance. Ryan Moore kept things simple aboard the expensive purchase, tracking the leader.
The flashy bay colt showed plenty of pace when asked to quicken, instantly putting the race to bed and galloping clear of his rivals to record a four-and-three-quarter-lengths success. Still with a lot to learn, he is an exciting prospect that could show significant improvement on his second start.
Joseph O’Brien’s Atlantic Coast appears the biggest threat to the favourite according to the market, following a convincing debut win over Formal Display.
Justify colt Capulet also made a successful start to his career with an all-weather victory at Dundalk over a mile, now making his turf debut. Out of Wedding Vow, a full-sister to Derby winner Serpentine, Capulet shaped well on debut to overcome the challenge of rival Huxley, and he could be a lively each-way contender in the field.
Win selection:
Diego Velazquez 4/7 – A P O’Brien, Ryan Moore
2:45pm – Matron Stakes (Group 1)
Market leader Tahiyra sets the standard in this Group One contest for trainer Dermot Weld. The Siyouni filly, half-sister to Tarnawa, has only one blemish to her record, when half-a-length second to Mawj in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket.
She is four from five in her career to date, winning three Group One contests and winning over £900,000 in prize money. A formidable filly, she has kept on impressing and has already finished ahead of second favourite Meditate on four occasions.
Aidan O’Brien-trained Meditate is a classy filly but has been found wanting when up against Tahiyra. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner has plenty of speed and although she has won over the mile, she has appeared more effective over the shorter trips on good ground when running in Ireland and England.
Whilst there could still be plenty of prizes to be won with the daughter of No Nay Never, she perhaps lacks the quality to win a Group One against the likes of Tahiyra, and will likely be second best once again, unless the favourite underperforms. She wears first-time blinkers.
Course-and-distance winner Zarinsk won the Listed Ingabelle Stakes on the card last year, beating a field that featured Clever And Cool. The Kodiac filly has three wins to her name this term in Group company, but is yet to land a coveted Group One success. Bidding for a hat-trick of wins, she could be the biggest threat to the favourite, but must show further progression if she is to overcome Tahiyra.
Last year’s Irish 2000 Guineas champion Homeless Songs has been seen sparingly since her Classic success. At the Curragh she beat subsequent Oaks and Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Tuesday by five-and-a-half-lengths in a highly-impressive performance.
Winless in three races since, the Frankel filly is on a comeback trail, capable of putting in a threatening challenge if at her best, but unreliable given her most recent form and likely to prefer softer ground conditions.
Just Beautiful and Clever And Cool, respectively, are both fresh from Group level wins and have each-way credentials, whilst English-raider Rogue Millennium must bounce back from a disappointing trip to Deauville, and rediscover the form shown to win the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes when she comfortably beat both Prosperous Voyage and Jumbly.
Outsider of the field Gozen failed to fire on her reappearance last month, running keenly on her first run since October and dropping to the back of the field early on. She only finished half-a-length behind Clever And Cool however, and on her juvenile form she deserves to be a much shorter price.
On debut she beat subsequent Group Three winner Basil Martini, before finishing second to Lumiere Rock in a Curragh Group Three. She may not have trained on as well as some of her other rivals, but she remains relatively unexposed and wears a first-time hood that could allow her to settle better.
Win selection:
Tahiyra – D K Weld, Chris Hayes
Wildcard:
Gozen – M D O’Callaghan, Leigh Roche
Whilst this is an extremely competitive contest, with many talented fillies in the line-up, the outsider of the field Gozen could be overpriced at 100/1, capable of outrunning her odds to show significant improvement on her first run of the season, now in a first-time hood.
Two other fillies that also finished down the field at the Curragh in her recent run have gone on to win Group Three, Red Riding Hood and Clever And Cool respectively, and whilst it’s a possibility that Gozen hasn’t trained on from two to three, it’s premature to discount her after only one poor run when she had plenty of excuses.
3:20pm – Irish Champions Stakes (Group 1)
Aidan O’Brien is the leading trainer in the race with eleven victories and has won the past four renewals, saddling Magical to victory twice before St Mark’s Basilica claimed the crown in a memorable 2021 race, and Luxembourg proved his Group One credentials in open company last year. The genius trainer of Ballydoyle saddles three contenders in this year’s field, with Ryan Moore sticking with the shortest-priced of the trio, Auguste Rodin.
The Derby winner finished a tailed off last when seen in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, heavily eased by jockey Ryan Moore with something seemingly amiss. Whilst the Classic winning Siyouni colt has been a dominant force against his own generation, bar a disappointment at Newmarket, he is yet to prove himself in open company and, whilst he can be forgiven for his Ascot run, he must improve if he is to beat his elders.
Epsom Derby runner-up King Of Steel was outbattled by Auguste Rodin in his bid for Classic success on his first run of the season, when sent off at odds of 66/1. Proving that performance was no fluke, he went to Royal Ascot and beat subsequent Voltigeur Stakes winner Continuous to claim his first Group level success in the King Edward VII Stakes.
Third in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes suggests he may be better equipped to win in open company at this stage in his career, building on his first run as a three-year-old and finishing ahead of top performers such as Pyledriver and Emily Upjohn when last seen.
The son of Wootoon Bassett is a big, imposing type, impressive in stature and real talent, however he appears short enough at 9/4, and faces plenty of tough opponents as he makes his Irish debut.
Reigning champion Luxembourg will be bidding to emulate former Ballydoyle resident Magical, to record back-to-back wins in the prestigious race. The four-year-old had issues at three, but overcame difficulties to land two Group prizes before finishing seventh in a very soft ground Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe that didn’t suit.
This term he has been exposed on occasion, disappointing when sent off as the odds-on favourite at the Curragh on his reappearance, and only managing a fourth-placed finish in the aforementioned Ascot Group One. He has added another black-type success to his honours however, beating the likes of Bay Bridge and newly-retired Vadeni to land a third victory at the highest level. Finishing second in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes was no disgrace, as he finished ahead of a number of talented rivals.
The trip of 1m2f seems to be his optimum, and he is proven over course-and-distance, unlike many of the other contenders. The handsome son of Camelot shouldn’t be discounted, as he can be extremely effective on good ground over a mile-and-a-quarter, and he has proven himself on many occasions in the past.
Alfaila has been supplemented for the race following a Group Two York Stakes success over My Prospero. The Dark Angel colt has won four successive black-type races, showing plenty of progression and now runs off a career-high mark of 120.
Last year’s runner-up Onesto has Frankie Dettori in the saddle, but must improve on a fourth-placed finish in a Deauville Group One. This is a tougher race than twelve months ago and the ground may go against him this time around.
Formidable filly Nashwa chased home her stablemate Mostahdaf, beating Paddington to the runner-up spot in the International Stakes at York. She is effective over the trip, but her only win of the season has come over a mile against her own sex, and she may find a couple of rivals too good at Leopardstown.
Three-year-old French-bred colt Al Riffa is an interesting contender on his sixth career start. Another of Wootton Bassett’s progeny in the line up, he was sold for 150,000gns as a yearling and was recently seen finishing three-quarter-of-the-lengths behind Arc favourite, the unbeaten Ace Impact.
That was an impressive performance that suggests he has shown the progression required to perform to a high level now in open company, and may also give an indication to the standard needed to win the Longchamp feature next month.
Prediction:
- Luxembourg 10/1
2. Al Riffa
3. Auguste Rodin
3:55pm – Dullingham Park Stakes (Group 2)
A four-time winner as a juvenile, including the Grade One Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Aidan O’Brien-trained Victoria Road needed the run when seen at Deauville last month, having suffered a setback earlier in the season and spent a lengthy period of time off the track as a result. The better ground at Leopardstown will be to suit, and if he has progressed from two to three, he is the one to beat.
Cheekpieces stay on stablemate Alfred Munnings, whilst recent Killarney Listed winner Salt Lake City is another representative for Ballydoyle in the line up. Course-and-distance winner Buckaroo drops back in trip which could see him to better effect, but he is back up in class and is yet to prove himself at Group level.
Five-year-old Power Under Me has been a frustrating horse to follow at times, inconsistent but possessing plenty of ability. He has been more effective this term, landing a Group Three prize over course-and-distance, before finishing a respectable fourth in a Group Two.
The ground is likely to go against him this time however, as all of his runs this season have been on soft or worse, and he was declared a non-runner due to unsuitable ground on a surface described as good, earlier in the season.
Win selection:
Victoria Road 11/4 – A P O’Brien, Ryan Moore
4:30pm – Paddy Power Stakes (Kilternan Stakes) (Group 3)
A select field of seven head to post for this Group Three contest, with Irish Derby runner-up Adelaide River heading the market in an attempt to land a black-type success. The son of Australia has been performing consistently well but has found one better on five occasions, and is winless since his debut success at Dundalk last year. The drop in grade in this race presents a good opportunity for him to finally get his head back in front.
Al Aasy, representing the in-form William Haggas yard, is bidding for a hat-trick of wins having recently landed a third Group Three success at Haydock. The six-year-old must give 11lbs to the favourite, Adelaide River, but has plenty of experience and is a hardy type, capable of posing a dangerous threat.
Three-year-old grey colt White Birch had been performing well prior to running in the Irish Derby. He was hampered by a faller at the Curragh and must be forgiven for the below par run. On his previous form, he has an excellent chance of making the frame, and will be suited by the better ground, as proven at Epsom when he finished third in the Derby.
Mashhoor, a horse that likes to go forward, has the potential to outrun his odds if he is able to repeat the form shown at the Curragh in July that saw him beat a field including Al Riffa, Alfred Munnings and Layfayette.
Win selection:
Adelaide River 7/4– A P O’Brien, Ryan Moore
The rest of the card:
5:40pm – Carrytheone 28/1 (EW) – J P Murtagh, Wesley Joyce (7)
Having run well in higher class races, this gelded son of Lope De Vega is in position to run a big race with the jockey booking of claimer Wesley Joyce, who takes a useful 7lbs off. The weight difference could be crucial, and puts him in with a chance of putting in a good performance.
5:40pm – Ice Cold In Alex 66/1 (EW) – K J Condon, Wayne Hassett (7)
The course-and-distance winner has been in the tracker for years, often placing at big prices, often disappointing. The nine-year-old is a risky selection but he is a real favourite and is more than capable of outrunning his odds on occasion, carrying a featherweight of 8st in this race. At 66/1, he is one for the extra places, if he is on a going day.
HAYDOCK
1:50pm – Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3)
Sir Busker 10/1 (EW) – William Knight, Ben Curtis
The seven-year-old gelding is a popular horse and has amassed almost £570,000 in prize money throughout his career. Often running well against the likes of Baaeed, he is a consistent type and can be forgiven for a below par run at Meydan where he was never in a position to challenge. He is a generous price at 10/1 and can go well fresh.
2:25pm – Class 2 Handicap
An interesting match-up between Baaeed’s half-brother, Naqeeb, and Camelot colt Denmark. The former, trained by William Haggas, won his maiden at Kempton when last seen and now steps up in trip for the first time.
Being by Nathaniel he should improve for the extra two furlongs, and was just touched off by Middle Earth earlier in the season, a horse that went on to beat Denmark by a length-and-three-quarters at York.
On that form, Naqeeb is a worthy favourite however it’s worth noting that Denmark met Middle Earth over 1m6f, in comparison with Naqeeb narrowly beaten over 1m4f. The step up in trip could bring further improvement from Naqeeb, but that isn’t a guarantee and he has stamina to prove.
Denmark wears blinkers once again, having shown improvement in headgear at York. The Aidan O’Brien-trained colt is by Camelot out of a Group One placed over 1m4f mare in Board Meeting, and has plenty of stamina in his pedigree.
Course-and-distance winner Lordship recorded a hat-trick of wins before finishing fourth at York, when sent off as joint-favourite under Tom Marquand. Adam Farragher now claims 3lbs aboard the gelding, another with a stamina-laden pedigree, who must reverse form with Denmark.
The consistent Blindedbythelights will attempt to show his rivals who is boss as he steps up in trip. By Protectionist, who won the Melbourne Cup over 2m in 2014, the three-year-old gelding faces his toughest task yet, with significantly upped in class for trainer Sir Mark Prescott, who is currently performing at a 25% strike rate.
The Goat was a shock twelve-length winner at Goodwood when sent off at odds of 25/1 for a handicap last month. The deluge of rain at the track may have helped his cause however, and he could only manage sixth on reappearance at York, finishing almost seven-lengths behind runner-up Denmark.
3:35pm – Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1)
A maximum field has been declared for the feature race of the card at Haydock, the Group One Sprint Cup Stakes. Superstar sprinter Shaquille is the odds-on favourite to land a sixth successive victory and a third consecutive Group One.
The Julie Camacho-trained colt has been a force to be reckoned with this term, defying the odds, making it a perfect campaign so far. He has never run in a field of this size, and can often be slowly away which is the main concern if met with trouble late on.
There are some older, more experienced rivals in the field, capable of taking advantage if Shaquille doesn’t get off to the best start, and there is plenty of each-way value with prices currently 11/1 the field, bar the favourite.
One to consider at a huge price is The Antarctic, a brother to the speedy Battaash. A 750,000gns yearling, the colt impressed as a juvenile, winning a Group Three and placing at Group One level.
He has recorded a Group Three win this term, but disappointed at Ascot when last seen. In a wide open race (without the favourite), and over 6f where anything is possible, The Antarctic may be able to outrun his odds and finish among the extra places.
First reserve Happy Romance is much better than her showing at Royal Ascot in June. Often able to outrun her odds, she is a fast filly with plenty of pace but may be better suited to 5f at this stage in her career.
Each-way selection:
The Antarctic 50/1 – A P O’Brien, Cieren Fallon
KEMPTON
1:35pm – September Stakes (Group 3)
Belloccio 25/1 (EW) – David Menuisier, Kyle Strydom
With a 75% strike rate on an all-weather surface, this course-and-distance winner is overpriced at 25/1, with only a 3lbs to find with 11/2 chance Candleford. Dropping back in trip to 1m4f should see him to better effect and he is a lively each-way contender.
ASCOT
2:35pm – Class 2 Handicap
Spangled Mac 8/1 (EW) – George Boughey, William Buick
The four-year-old returned to the winners’ enclosure last month at Newbury, prevailing over Popmaster to land a fifth career success. Up 3lbs, off a mark of 96, he remains competitive in the hands of champion jockey William Buick, and will be suited by conditions at Ascot.
IRISH CHAMPIONS FESTIVAL – SUNDAY – THE CURRAGH
2:25pm – Blandford Stakes (Group 2)
Dermot Weld has been the dominant trainer in the past decade with five victories, including back-to-back wins for Shamreen under the great Pat Smullen. He saddles Mashia, a lightly-raced three-year-old who recently finished a respectable third in the Snow Fairy Stakes at the track. The Kingman filly has a length to find with Red Riding Hood on that form and could represent value at a double figure price.
Recent Group Three winner Red Riding Hood is one of four representatives for Ballydoyle, with Aidan O’Brien searching for his first win in the race since 2012. The first string from the yard appears to be the exciting Galileo filly Jackie Oh, fresh from a Group Three Gowran Park success.
Her best form has come on softer ground, which could be a cause for concern if there is little rainfall prior to Sunday’s race, as she could only manage fifth when contending the Irish 1000 Guineas here in May, and was hugely disappointing when sent off as a 6/1 joint-favourite in the Sandringham Stakes. Possibly with excuses apart from the ground on both occasions, she is a worthy favourite but faces many tough opponents.
Stablemate Never Ending Story has been disappointing in her last three appearances, beating only two rivals home. The Dubawi filly is now exposed, and must rediscover the form shown to finish second in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly, if she is to have any chance of entering the frame.
Course-and-distance winner Unless is a big price at 16/1 as the outsider of the Ballydoyle quartet, following a recent Royal Whip second to Layfayette. Fourth in the Sandringham Stakes was a respectable performance, finishing ahead of a subsequent Group Three winner in Magical Sunset, although winner Coppice hasn’t franked the form.
Henry Candy’s Araminta is bidding for a third successive win in black-type races. The daughter of Gleneagles has been progressing with each run as she has been stepping up in class, and will be suited by good ground conditions. This is her Irish debut, fresh from a Group Three success at Chantilly, with Colin Keane taking the ride.
First-time cheekpieces are tried with Lumiere Rock who has shown promise without getting her head in front this term. She has been tried over 1m4f and finished second to Yorkshire Oaks heroine Warm Heart in the Ribblesdale Stakes, but has looked most effective over a mile-and-a-quarter, unlucky not to have finished first past the post when beaten a head at Deauville last month.
Trevaunance is another wearing first-time headgear, needing to rediscover form after three efforts in Group One company. She must be respected down in grade as an experienced filly and Group Two winner.
Last year’s runner-up was narrowly beaten by Above The Curve twelve months ago, but Insinuendo is a 16/1 chance this time around after a poor showing in the Pretty Polly Stakes and must bounce back to form. The Willie McCreery-trained mare is likely past her peak at the age of six, however she is more than capable of competing at this level if she is on song, and is more proven than a number of her rivals. Perhaps she is vulnerable to an improving youngster but if she has shown signs that she has retained some of her ability and could be overlooked.
Verdict: A high-quality race featuring experienced fillies and young, improving types. Jackie Oh may find everything happening too quickly on fast ground, and she is a risky selection as favourite but it may be that she had other excuses the last twice on good ground, and Aidan O’Brien must have some confidence in her. Unless is the each-way pick to outrun her odds and finish ahead of a couple of her stablemates, whilst the older Insinuendo and four-year-old TREVAUNANCE are both capable of playing their role in the finish, but now have a bit to prove.
4:00pm – Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group 1)
City Of Troy is the overwhelming favourite to land a third successive victory and extend his unbeaten run. Potentially a future superstar, the Justify colt out of Group One winning mare Together Forever, has been exceptional so far this term, blowing away his opposition and showing great ability. He made light work of his opposition on debut before beating subsequent Group Two winner Haatem by six-and-a-half-lengths in the Superlative Stakes.
This is an intriguing contest against Phoenix Stakes winner Bucanero Fuerte, yet City Of Troy, with his unblemished record, looks a class above the rest of his generation and is less exposed. His main market rival, representing Amo Racing for Adrian Murray, has only been beaten once, finishing behind Coventry Stakes winner River Tiber and runner-up Army Ethos at Royal Ascot.
He has more experience than course-and-distance winner City Of Troy, yet the raw talent the Ballydoyle resident has shown has been mesmerising, and it’s likely Bucanero Fuerte will need to show further progression to pose a threat.
Expensive purchase Givemethebeatboys has to find plenty to reverse form with Bucanero Fuerte, whilst course-and-distance winner Islandsinthestream faces a tough task against Henry Longfellow, another unbeaten Aidan O’Brien runner who breezed past the Joseph O’Brien-trained colt when the pair met here last month.
Outsider of the field Cuban Thunder is a potential pace angle in the race, likely to be used to set it up for stablemate and fellow Amo Racing-owned Bucanero Fuerte.
Win selection:
City Of Troy 4/7 – A P O’Brien, Ryan Moore
4:35pm – Irish St Leger (Group 1)
Reigning champion Kyprios hasn’t been seen since winning the Prix du Cadran by twenty-lengths last October, having suffered an injury that has kept him out for the majority of the season. On form and ability, he would be the overwhelming favourite in this small field of five runners, however he is likely to need the run and therefore will not be seen to his best, which is a concern if backing him at 2/1.
His stablemate Emily Dickinson could be his biggest threat, but she prefers softer ground and is unlikely to get ideal ground conditions come Sunday. However, she finished a very respectable fourth in the Ascot Gold Cup over 2m4f, on good to firm ground, putting five-and-a-half-lengths between herself and seventh-placed Eldar Eldarov.
The Roger Varian-trained runner should be seen to better effect over this shorter trip of 1m6f, but does have to prove himself, now winless since winning last year’s English equivalent at Doncaster. Group Three winner Yashin is a strong stayer but has plenty to find on ratings, likewise the outsider of the field Dawn Rising.
All runners/prices are correct at the time of publication.
Photo by Philippe Oursel on Unsplash
THE CONDITIONAL 