Katie Midwinter (21/09/23)
AYR
1:50pm – Doonside Cup Stakes (Listed Race)
Market leader My Prospero is 9lbs clear of the field on ratings, sporting first-time cheekpieces in the hands of Cieren Fallon. Trainer William Haggas had a 38% strike rate at the Scottish track last season, and the Somerville Lodge residents must be respected when making the long journey up north from Newmarket.
The four-year-old colt sets the standard in this field having been running in competitive Group One contests, often running well. However, the son of Iffraaj was a beaten favourite when sent off at evens when last seen at York and, despite likely being the best horse in the race, he is unreliable and often finds one or two rivals better on the day.
Whilst the addition of headgear could bring some improvement and allow him to see out his races to better effect, and the drop in class will certainly help, he may be vulnerable to an improving type in Karl Burke’s Royal Rhyme.
The mount of Clifford Lee runs off a career high mark of 108, 13lbs higher for a soft ground Goodwood handicap success last month. By Lope De Vega, the three-year-old has been progressing well and enjoys running in testing conditions. With plenty of forecast rain ahead of Saturday’s card at Ayr, and two busy days of racing on the track before their feature event, the ground is likely to be on the softer side which will suit Royal Rhyme.
Irish-raider Helvic Dream is an interesting contender for Noel Meade, fresh from a decent third-placed finish in the Royal Whip Stakes. Another runner dropping in class, the six-year-old has been inconsistent in recent seasons, with his last win coming in the Group One Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh in 2021. The Irish-bred gelding will need to rediscover form but has a performance to build on, and will thrive in softer conditions.
Pride Of America was last seen in the highly competitive Chesterfield Cup Handicap at Goodwood, the form of which has worked out exceptionally well, with the winner Ancient Rome, only three-lengths ahead of Amy Murphy’s third-placed charge, going on to win the valuable Mint Millions Stakes at Kentucky Downs. Runner-up Haunted Dream performed well again at York on his reappearance, whilst fifth-placed Caius Chorister also held up the form by finishing second in the Old Borough Cup Handicap at Haydock.
Six-year-old gelding Pride Of America is often a reliable selection in handicap company but the step up in class has proven a step too far in the past, and he could be exposed once again.
Unexposed Batemans Bay makes his first appearance for Kevin Ryan in his fifth racecourse start. The lightly-raced three-year-old has been seen once over the trip when fourth of nine in the Zetland Stakes last year, and reappeared in the Queen’s Vase in his sole start this season, finishing down the field.
His pedigree, being by New Bay out of a Galileo mare, would suggest he should possess plenty of stamina, but he didn’t see out the trip at Ascot, perhaps needing the run after a layoff. He is an interesting contender as he is largely an unknown quantity, but his price of €130,000 as a yearling, as well as a classy pedigree, indicates there could be more to come from this gelding.
Luckin Brew has good form ahead of Oaks third Caernarfon from her last run at Pontefract where she was narrowly denied a black-type success by Local Dynasty. She hasn’t been seen this season and will need to prove she has trained on and is able to compete at this level, however she is likely much better than her mark of 94 suggests, and is an unexposed filly receiving the allowances in the famous silks of co-owner Michael Tabor.
Verdict:
A tricky race to predict. It would be no surprise to see My Prospero claim the plaudits, as he is the highest-rated horse in the race with the best form. However, he rarely gets his head in front and could be vulnerable especially on the testing ground, with Irish-raider HELVIC DREAM and the progressive Royal Rhyme big dangers.
2:25pm – Silver Cup Handicap (Class 2)
It will come as no surprise that Rathbone is heading the market given that he is 6lbs well in on official ratings, with the bonus of jockey Connor Planas claiming 3lbs off his racing weight. Off a mark of 82, the Michael Herrington-trained gelding looks to have an excellent chance of being the first winner at Ayr for the yard.
The hat-trick seeking seven-year-old finished last but one in last year’s renewal for his former connections, but the higher draw and lower weight could allow him to be more competitive this time around, as well as the ease in the surface.
Jump The Gun is another that appears particularly well treated at the weights, racing off a mark of 80, 3lbs lower than his official rating with 5lbs claimer William Pyle onboard.
Iain Jardine’s six-year-old often runs well at the track and finished fifth in the race last year off a mark of 90. He was beaten a neck by Rathbone when in receipt of 9lbs last week at Doncaster, and that formline puts his rival slightly ahead of him here with only 4lbs between them on this occasion, taking into account the claiming weight of their respective jockeys.
Nine-year-old veteran Gulliver bounced back to winning ways at Southwell recently, ending a 28-race losing streak. It was a welcomed success, but he is now 7lbs higher returning to the turf and has failed to fire when rated as highly in the past couple of seasons. In such a big field with many capable of putting in a winning performance, Gulliver is potentially vulnerable to a better handicapped rival, but he is respected for a trainer in David O’Meara that knows how to prepare a horse to land a big handicap prize.
Course-and-distance winner Call Me Ginger doesn’t appear to be particularly well handicapped, but he has previous form at the track and has proven form on soft ground. Jim Goldie and Paul Mulrennan have 368 winners between them at Ayr, and with the jockey having already ridden 35 winners for the trainer this year, they are worth keeping on side when combining.
Bernando O’Reilly finished ahead of Rathbone when the pair met at Doncaster in March, with the former carrying 1lbs more than his younger rival. The softer ground will be suited to last year’s third-placed finisher, who looks fairly well treated off a mark of 85 but drawn in the lowest numbered stall is likely to be a huge negative.
There’s a case to be made for one of the outsiders of the field in Admiral D who, despite having a low draw, could be able to outrun his odds. The Richard Fahey-trained four-year-old is 9lbs lower than when a respectable sixth in a competitive handicap at Doncaster last year, 10lbs lower than when seventh in the Ayr Gold Cup. If he is able to rediscover some form, he could make the frame and has coped with softer ground in the past.
Whilst the low draw can be a negative at Ayr, ten winners of the race in the past twenty years have come from a single-digit numbered stall, and it is by no means a certainty that a higher-drawn horse will win.
Former Group Three winner Snazzy Jazzy should enjoy softer conditions at the track on Saturday, but will need to bounce back to form after a run of disappointing performances. The course-and-distance winner is 7lbs below his last winning mark and is a huge price making his first appearance for Seb Spencer, but could be slightly more capable than his price suggests.
Verdict:
RATHBONE is the standout pick on form and at the weights, and there may be no need to look past the favourite in this field despite it being a competitive contest featuring twenty-five runners. However, there is likely to be plenty of each-way value and at the prices there are two that could be capable of outrunning their huge odds.
Admiral D is only a four-year-old and could still be capable of showing slight improvement against many older rivals, whilst Snazzy Jazzy, a classy performer on his day, will enjoy conditions and his recent yard switch could spark a revival.
3:00pm – Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies)
Odds-on favourite Raqiya is unbeaten since a promising debut defeat at Newbury, and showed great ability when upped in class to win convincingly at Haydock earlier this month. Given an opening mark of 93, she has the potential to progress further having only run three times and looks an exciting type for Owen Burrows.
Yet to be seen on soft ground, the potential testing conditions could be a slight worry for this inexperienced filly, however many of Blue Point’s progeny have coped well with soft or worse ground which is a positive. Blue Point has been enjoying an exceptional first season as a stallion, with a 42% win percentage and he is certainly a stallion whose progeny are worth keeping onside.
Hat-trick seeking Holy Roman Emperor filly Great Generation has been faultless so far in her career and comfortably beat 93-rated Jabaara when last seen at Chester. The 39,000gns purchase has looked impressive so far, and now attempts to land a black-type success in the hands of Stefano Cherchi who has a 27% strike rate on Marco Botti’s juveniles this year.
Dubawi filly Pretty Crystal looks exposed after three runs at this level, and now drops back in trip following a disappointing effort over 7f on soft ground at Goodwood. Stamina may have been to blame on her previous run, rather than the ground, but she has to prove her capabilities on a softer surface.
Karl Burke has a 22% strike rate with his juveniles this term, and has saddled the same percentage of winners at the Ayrshire track in 2023. A trainer in-form, Burke’s contenders are always ones to watch, and Dorothy Lawrence looks to be one of the more reliable contenders in this field.
With the experience of six runs in her favour, the daughter of Soldier’s Call has proved her capabilities over 6f with two impressive performances in both the Lowther Stakes and Dick Poole Fillies’ Stakes, respectively.
Beaten only a length-and-a-half by the impressive Relief Rally when upped in trip at York, that formline sets the standard in this contest and she has winning form on good to soft ground. Whilst she is unproven on testing ground, her sire’s progeny have a 22% record on soft ground and her dam was placed in a Listed contest on soft, which is an indication that the expected rainfall may not be too inconvenient.
Irish-raider Navassa Island has Group Three form that puts her in with an excellent chance of making the frame on her British debut, and her maiden success at the Curragh over the talented She’s Quality is a respected formline. However, she disappointed in the Albany Stakes and failed to win an average maiden at Leopardstown in July when sent off as the odds-on favourite, perhaps not seeing out the 7 1⁄2 f on that occasion.
The return to 6f looked to suit, and her pedigree suggests she should be most effective over the shorter distances being by Territories. Her dam Roger Sez won this contest in 2011 on soft ground, but her half-sister Lezoo hasn’t been as competitive on an easier surface and Navassa Island may prefer better ground.
Bellarchi has raced plenty on her debut term, now making her eleventh start of a juvenile campaign. Whilst she could be forgiven for being below par after a long season, she is a likable filly capable of outrunning her likely double-figure odds.
A consistent filly, she has been performing well, regularly for connections in lower level races, and now makes the step back up in class having previously been exposed in Listed company. This level appears to stretch her capabilities and she has plenty to find if she is to trouble the main protagonists.
Outsider of the field Prime Art makes the trip across the Irish Sea for Johnny Murtagh, with Ben Curtis taking the ride aboard the Churchill filly. She has seven-lengths to find with Navassa Island on Curragh form, but has shown progression since her debut run and landed her maiden win at Naas last week. Murtagh has sent a total of three horses to Ayr over the years, with two finishing in second place. He will attempt to go one better this time around with Prime Art.
Verdict:
DOROTHY LAWRENCE has extra experience that she could use to great effect, and her last two runs have been very impressive, including at higher grade. The ground is a light unknown, and she may be a better filly on a sounder surface, but there are indications that she should cope with testing conditions and the yard is in good form.
Navassa Island is respected, whilst both Raqiya and Great Generation will be exciting contenders, with the former certainly of interest.
3:35pm – Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap)
Reigning champion Summerghand is 5lbs higher than when winning the race twelve months ago, running off a mark 3lbs higher than his current official rating of 104. Whilst he has the experience in his favour, and is a formidable handicapper that is capable of performing at a higher level, he faces a tough task carrying top weight potentially in testing conditions.
Lightly-raced four-year-old Orazio is the one to beat according to current markets, but he will need to show significant improvement following a disappointing effort in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood where he was seemingly unsuited by the going. He has winning form on soft ground, but if he does desire a sounder surface, he is unlikely to thrive on softer ground at Ayr.
It is worth noting that conditions on the day of his last run were quite extreme, with the rest of the card being abandoned due to the weather and heavy rainfall at the track, and his run may be worth forgiving for that reason. He was well fancied having been sent off as the 100/30 favourite in a twenty-seven runner field, indicating that connections and experts may have thought he was well ahead of the handicapper. Off a mark of 101, with a high draw, he could be tough to beat if there is more improvement to come.
Juan Les Pins has some excellent form behind the likes of Commanche Falls, however he is unproven on soft ground and finished eight-and-a-half-lengths behind the winner Aberama Gold on heavy ground at Goodwood. He is 8lbs well in running off a mark of 98, and has a high draw from stall 20, with the ground the only concern.
Likable five-year-old Significantly has been running consistently well this season, and remains on an attractive mark of 94. He copes with testing conditions and is certainly one for the shortlist as he searches for a fifth career success.
Classy Rohaan has become increasingly difficult to back this season after a string of below par performances where better has been expected. He can be forgiven for many runs in higher class company, but he faces a tricky assignment in such a big field, needing to rediscover some form if he is to be competitive.
Former winner of the race Bielsa is 1lbs higher than when landing the prize two years ago, and holds claims of reclaiming his crown following a good performance at Goodwood. He won a competitive handicap at York on good ground earlier in the season, following a soft ground success at Redcar, and is one to consider each-way for a trainer that is worth following at Ayr, but the draw from stall 1 is likely to be an inconvenience.
Aberama Gold recorded back-to-back wins in big field handicaps earlier in the summer, in varied conditions, but has been disappointing in his last two runs and the handicapper may have caught up with him. Claiming jockey Mark Winn takes a useful 3lbs off his racing weight, which could be enough to bring him back into the equation and he has proven form over course-and-distance.
Stablemate Escobar is difficult to back with any confidence given his poor run of form, however a drop back to 6f is an interesting move and could see him to better effect but he does run off a 6lbs higher mark than he is officially rated.
Verdict:
An exceptionally difficult race, as usual, with twenty five runners and many familiar faces and “cliff horses” in the field. Many will have backed a number of these contenders in many sprint handicaps this term, and over the years, and it’s an open contest in which there are endless possible outcomes.
With soft ground in mind, and a high draw likely favourable, the nod goes to ORAZIO, who appears to be well thought of by connections and due a big handicap win. He is a four-year-old on the up, and is unlikely to be fully exposed yet, therefore could still be slightly ahead of the handicapper, with further progression a possibility.
Juan Les Pins and Significantly are worthy of being towards the top of the market, and shouldn’t be too far away, whilst Fast Response is interesting in a race of this nature, dropping in class having been running in black-type contests this season, with 7lbs claimer Brandon Wilkie easing her hefty burden off a mark of 103.
NEWBURY
3:15pm – Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2)
The first foal of an unraced Dark Angel mare, by Territories, Mister Sketch made an impressive start to his career and was a nine-and-a-half-length winner of his Salisbury maiden last month. The big, imposing colt was recently purchased by Wathnan Racing, and will make his debut in their colours in this Group Two contest.
Seven Questions recorded a hat-trick of wins in lower grade this summer before finishing a respectable third in a Ripon Listed event last month. The gelded son of Kodiac was narrowly beaten in a Kempton Group Three when last seen, but finished three-quarters-of-a-lengths ahead of Array who opposes him once again. He has winning form on soft ground but must prove himself at this level on turf.
The aforementioned Array was just held when expected to land a maiden success at Goodwood last month, beaten by Irish-raider Mansa Musa who has since franked the form by placing in two black-type events, including in a Curragh Group Three. Andrew Balding’s Juddmonte-owner colt has a classy pedigree, being by No Nay Never out of a Listed winner and dual Group Three placed mare Joyeuse.
A number of his half-siblings have failed to cope with softer conditions however, which is a concern ahead of Array’s intended appearance on ground currently described as heavy. On form he should be competitive, but the ground may not be to his liking.
Haatem landed a Group Two success at Goodwood following a second-placed finish to City Of Troy at Newmarket, but disappointed when ninth of ten in the Gimcrack Stakes last month, perhaps unsuited by the drop back to 6f on good to firm ground. He had previously run well with ease in the ground, suggesting that he may be effective on the softer surface that is expected at Newbury on Saturday.
Verdict:
HAATEM can be forgiven for his disappointment at York and represents great value at 11/2, whilst the classy Array is also value at 5/1.
YORK
5:30pm – Class 4 Handicap
Dark Jedi – Tim Easterby, Duran Fentiman
Appearing to be considerably well handicapped off a mark of 83, Dark Jedi has been used to running in higher class company and is now 12lbs below his last winning mark when victorious at Doncaster last October. The seven-year-old makes his 53rd career start at a track where he often runs well, and the drop in class as well as an ease in the ground could allow him to return to the winner’s enclosure.
THE CURRAGH
An interesting maiden opens the card at the Curragh on Saturday, in which Aidan O’Brien saddles a trio of juveniles headed by the mount of Frankie Dettori, Battle Fleet. The son of Siyouni finished fourth on debut at Navan, two-lengths behind £1,100,000 purchase Givemethebeatboys. The colt hasn’t been seen since his promising debut, but sets the standard in this 6f maiden.
Stablemate Emperor Of Rome wears first-time blinkers in the hands of 5lbs claimer Killian Hennessy, whilst Latin, another Ballydoyle representative by No Nay Never, also has a 5lbs claimer onboard in the form of Paddy Harnett. Latin makes his third racecourse start dropping back down in trip having tried 7f the last twice to no avail.
Newcomer Il Pellegrino is out of an American-bred daughter of Storm Cat and, with plenty of speed in her pedigree being by No Nay Never, he is one to watch on debut for Joseph O’Brien.
Star Hunter shaped well on debut for Jessica Harrington, finishing behind a subsequent Listed runner-up and Group Two fourth in Deepone, and beating Latin by a-length-and-three-quarters. The Lope De Vega colt failed to build on his first run, but could use his experience to great effect in this field and may be the one to beat now dropping back in trip.
The second race on the card (1:55pm) features a competitive handicap over 7f. Semblance Of Order is one to consider in hoping that he won’t land a hat-trick of refusals, having declined to race the last twice. If he leaves the stalls in good order, he is in with a chance off a mark of 82 and will thrive in soft conditions.
The Group Two Beresford Stakes (2:30pm) hosts six runners, three of whom are Ballydoyle representatives, the shortest-priced being Grosvenor Square who has one victory to his name from one run. The son of Galileo is the mount of Colin Keane and shaped well to land a debut success at Galway recently on soft ground and could build on that performance with another promising run.
Navy Seal, the mount of Dettori, has a bit to find on form with his stablemate, having finished behind Gandolfo at Killarney on debut, a Noel Meade-trained colt that was subsequently well beaten by Grosvenor Square. However he made light work of his opposition at Galway last month, easily beating Bad Desire who was deemed good enough to be sent off at short-odds for the Group Three Prix de Conde at Chantilly last week, despite underperforming on his French outing, and could have shown enough progression to have a say in this contest.
The one to beat appears to be Carriganóg resident Stromberg, an impressive son of Iffraaj who is bidding for a three-timer. In his last two runs he has beaten his opponents by a combined distance of seventeen-lengths in visually impressive fashion, and looks ready to make the step up in class to land a black-type success.
In the Goffs Million (3:40pm) market leader Cherry Blossom heads a twenty-three runner field, with all contenders attempting to land the valuable prize.
The daughter of No Nay Never finished a length behind Relief Rally in the Lowther Stakes, putting in an impressive performance but just missing out on a black-type success. She sets the standard but faces stiff opposition with many worthy opponents taking her on, including Ger Lyons’ colt Beauty Thunder. The Night Of Thunder colt landed his maiden win at Roscommon last month over an extended seven furlongs, beating rivals including Thor’s Hammer who opposes him once again.
All runners/prices are correct at the time of publication.
THE CONDITIONAL 