Katie Midwinter (01/11/23)
FRIDAY
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
Michael Appleby’s progressive Big Evs has recorded three black-type successes since his debut defeat, winning at Royal Ascot, Goodwood and Doncaster, most recently in the Group Two Flying Childers Stakes. His only below par performance came in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York, where he failed to fire when taking on his elders for the first time in a competitive Group One sprint. Against his fellow juveniles however, he has been faultless since his first racecourse appearance, and sets the standard among the European-raiders. The firmer ground will suit this speedy son of Blue Point, and he should face little problems from stall 4.
Crimson Advocate beat subsequent Lowther Stakes heroine Relief Rally to win the Queen Mary Stakes, putting her ahead of York runner-up Cherry Blossom on formlines. The Nyquist filly hasn’t been seen since her Royal Ascot success, and wasn’t as effective when first time out at Keeneland on debut, therefore may not be as sharp as some of the others in this field, but must be respected on her English form, bidding for a hat-trick of wins.
Another hat-trick seeking contender also representing George Weaver is No Nay Mets. The No Nay Never colt, out of a Group Three winning juvenile and sister to Mint Millions Stakes winner Ancient Rome, Etoile, was purchased for £800,000 in June, and although he could only manage ninth behind Valiant Force in the Norfolk Stakes, he is capable of a better showing at that level.
Irish-raider Cherry Blossom hasn’t matched the level shown by Big Evs on British form, but has useful form over further and a drop back in trip on a quick surface could allow her to fare better. The No Nay Never filly was beaten on her only start over 5f, when a length-and-a-quarter behind Tiger Belle on debut, but had her excuses.
Adrian McGuiness-trained Tiger Belle has been running consistently well this season, and now bids for a third successive victory following a Group Three success at Longchamp in August. Cristian Demuro retains the ride aboard the Cotai Glory filly, who is unexposed at this level and could be capable of showing further progression.
Slider, a Listed winner at the track when last seen, looks a progressive type from which there could be more to come, whilst Amidst Waves needs to improve on a recent second at Keeneland, but may come on for the running having been off since her Listed win in August.
Committee Of One narrowly beat Amidst Waves to break his maiden tag in a Listed Keeneland contest when last seen, but the Steven Asmussen-trained colt is a big price in comparison with his rival, who must reverse form, as he has an inconvenient draw in stall 12.
Expensive £1.1million purchase Givemethebeatboys has shown a good level of form behind some top juvenile sprinters in Britain and Ireland this season, and may be overlooked in this field for trainer Jessica Harrington. He is yet to win for his new owners, but had previously reigned victorious in the Group Three Marble Stakes, beating subsequent Norfolk Stakes victor Valiant Force, and the drop back to 5f could allow him to be competitive at this level, having looked to be weakening in the final furlong of his races over further.
Frankie Dettori takes the ride aboard Ralph Beckett-trained Starlust, who appears exposed following a disappointing display in the Middle Park Stakes.
Verdict: A trappy race that may lack a standout contender unless Big Evs can justify favouritism and show further progression. Cherry Blossom is an intriguing contender considering she is unexposed at this level over the trip and represents a top yard that has saddled plenty of winners at this meeting in the past. Tiger Belle is respected on form but the value bet may be GIVEMETHEBEATBOYS who is likely to be overlooked on form figures but has been facing some of the best colts and fillies of their generation in recent runs and may benefit from the drop back to 5f.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade 1)
The training partnership of Simon and Ed Crisford are set to saddle the favourite in this fillies contest as they are represented by the recent Rockfel Stakes winner, Carla’s Way. The Starspangledbanner filly put in an emphatic performance to land a first Group level success at Newmarket, but did had the benefit of being closer to the pace, chasing the leader as the main market principles in Shuwari and subsequent Group One heroine, Ylang Ylang, trailed and had plenty of ground to make up. On that level of form however, Carla’s Way holds leading claims in this contest, but will need to show further progression to prove herself at this level.
One of Donnacha O’Brien’s first Breeders’ Cup contenders, Porta Fortuna, is a dangerous opponent to the current market leader, Carla’s Way, fresh from a recent win in the Cheveley Park Stakes. She had previously recorded two Group Three victories in both the Sprint Stakes at Naas and the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot, respectively, before placing in the Phoenix Stakes and Moyglare Stud Stakes. Her form reads well, and she already has plenty of experience at the top level, putting her in with an exceptional chance in this mile contest.
Fellow Irish-raider Content has been generally consistent this term, bar a couple of below par performances. The daughter of Galileo bounced back to form on soft ground in her first attempt at a mile when successful in a recent Group Three at Naas, but her form doesn’t suggest a firmer surface will be ideal and her dam was declared a non-runner on ground with firm in the description on five occasions.
She Feels Pretty is unbeaten in two starts to date and convincingly recorded a Grade One success at Woodbine when last seen, beating Charlie Appleby-trained favourite Dazzling Star by six-and-three-quarter-lengths. The Cherie DeVaux-trained filly has shown versatility and a high level of ability so far, and remains unexposed, capable of posing a threat to her rivals.
Grade Two-winner Buchu is by Justify out of a Galileo mare, suggesting she possesses plenty of class and has promise and is bidding for a third successive victory. Fellow Justify filly Hard To Justify won a Grade Two on debut last month, and may be able to build on that victory with another good performance at this level.
All of French-raider Les Pavots’ wins have come on ground with soft in the description, with the filly yet to be seen on a ground officially described as good or better. However, the No Nay Never filly was last seen finishing third to Opera Singer in the Prix Marcel Boussac, on ground that may have been better than the good to soft description suggested, and on that form she may be an each-way contender, although the wide draw from stall 14 could prove to be tricky.
Unexposed Mendelssohn filly Austere has recorded two successes in as many runs, most recently in Listed company at Kentucky Downs, and could be capable of improving further to be competitive at this level.
Another unbeaten filly in the lineup is Dreamfyre, a two-time Group Three winner including when victorious at the track in October, when narrowly beating Buttercream Babe to land the Surfer Girl Stakes.
Verdict: There are a number of unexposed fillies in the line-up, but the superior contender on form is PORTA FORTUNA (NAP), who already has experience at the top level including against the colts. She is a generous price at current best odds of 11/2, capable of providing Donnacha O’Brien with a first Breeders’ Cup success as a trainer, with his first runner.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)
River Tiber made an impeccable start to his racing career with three successive wins culminating with Royal Ascot victory in the Coventry Stakes. Two runner-up prizes have followed, beaten twice by Vandeek in both the Prix Morny and Middle Park Stakes. The Wootton Bassett colt has looked vulnerable at the top level over 6f in recent starts, and a step up to a mile looks a wise decision by master trainer Aidan O’Brien.
The burst of speed shown by River Tiber in the closing stages of his races suggests he possesses the acceleration needed to be effective over the shorter trips, but he is unable to see out his races as effectively as the best juvenile sprinters he has faced. He stays on towards the line however, and a marginally less frantic contest over an extended distance could allow him to return to his best and he is the choice of Ryan Moore.
Ballydoyle stablemate Unquestionable, the mount of Frankie Dettori, returned to some form in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere when second to Rosallion, following a disappointing run in the Phoenix Stakes. Everything went wrong at the Curragh, as the colt banged his head before opening the stalls and lost a front shoe, managing only fourth when sent off as the short-priced favourite. He holds leading claims on the back of his second at Longchamp but appears to be the yard’s second string.
Mountain Bear also represents O’Brien, with Dylan Browne McMonagle taking the ride. A Listed-winner at Dundalk when last seen, he has shown a decent level of form so far in his career but will need a career-best to be competitive and will likely be found wanting at Group One level.
Quality Road colt Agate Road landed Grade Two success last month and now bids for a third win of his career. Out of Grade One winning mare Yellow Agate, the colt will be suited by the quick conditions and is proven over an extended mile.
Unbeaten Michael McCarthy-trained colt Endlessly has three wins to his name, including two Grade Three victories, the second of which came at the track in early October. With three comfortable successes at a lower level, the son of Oscar Performance looks ready for a step up in grade and may be capable of posing a threat to his rivals.
Mark Casse saddles two promising colts in Can Group and My Boy Prince. The former, by Good Samaritan, is a Grade Two winner, whilst the latter, a son of Cairo Prince, placed in a Grade One when last seen.
Verdict: Whilst many of the North American-based contenders have promising formlines and could be capable of showing further improvement to overcome the challenge of the Irish-raiders, RIVER TIBER has shown the highest-level of form to date and looks ready for a step up in trip. Given that he is able to cope with the extra two furlongs, and handles the firm conditions, the exciting colt could bounce back to winning ways and boost his Classic credentials.
SATURDAY
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1)
Exceptional Frankel filly Inspiral has excelled as a miler in her career to date, and steps up to 1m2f for the first time. She should have no problem getting the extra two furlongs on firm ground, and has shaped as though she could stay further. The John & Thady Gosden-trained filly made light work of a good field of fillies to win the Sun Chariot Stakes when last seen, and sets the standard in this contest as the one to beat.
Aidan O’Brien-trained Warm Heart has been progressing well this term, winning three black-type races following her maiden success at Leopardstown. After landing the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot, she went on to win the Yorkshire Oaks before reigning victorious in the Prix Vermeille at Longchamp. Bidding for her third successive victory at the top level, the Galileo filly holds leading claims dropping back in trip, and could have more in her reserves in the closing stages, given she is proven over the trip and over further.
In Italian finished a length behind Tuesday in last year’s renewal, coming from a wide draw to mount her challenge but failing to see off the Irish-raider. Coming from stall 1 on this occasion, she holds leading claims given her proven experience in the race and her promising Grade One form coming into the race.
Lindy has finished second twice to Blue Rose Cen this term before she made the switch to the USA. Last seen finishing second to Mawj, on the form she has shown behind some top class fillies, she must be respected and has a chance of making the frame.
Formerly trained by Richard Fahey, Fev Rover was a useful Group level performer in Europe, winning a Group Two and placing in the 1000 Guineas. She has excelled in eight starts across the pond, successful in two Grade One contests, including over 1m2f at Woodbine when last seen beating With The Moonlight. The Mark Casse-trained mare has experience in her favour, and is an enticing price at double figure odds.
Lumiere Rock has performed consistently well for Joseph O’Brien this term, and was rewarded with a Group Two success in the Blandford Stakes at the Irish Champions Festival. This race is likely to require a career-best from the improving filly who must reverse form with Warm Heart.
Verdict: Inspiral has the class to reign victorious in a race of this magnitude, however she has been slowly away in the past and can be unreliable, therefore the vote goes to WARM HEART who has been in exceptional form this term. The daughter of Galileo is proven over further, which could give her the edge in the closing stages.
Prediction:
- WARM HEART
- Inspiral
- In Italian
Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1)
Three-year-old filly Mawj faces the toughest task of her career as she faces thirteen rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Unbeaten this term, she won the 1000 Guineas in May following two successes in Meydan, before preparing perfectly for this assignment with a Grade One win at Keeneland. The formidable daughter of Exceed And Excel is difficult to oppose as she sets the standard among the European contenders and has an air of invincibility about her.
Fellow Godolphin representative Master Of The Seas represents an in-form Charlie Appleby team currently performing at a 40% striker rate. The gelded son of Dubawi won the Summer Mile Stakes in July before claiming a Grade One prize at Woodbine in September. A narrow second at Keeneland when last seen, beaten only by three-time Grade One winner Up To The Mark, he has the North American experience and a touch of class that could hold him in good stead.
Japanese-raider Songline was successful in her only run outside of Japan to date when landing a Riyadh Group Three. The Kizuna mare has two Grade One wins to her name this term and was narrowly touched off in a Grade Two when last seen in Tokyo.
Prix de la Foret winner Kelina shaped as though a step up in trip could bring further improvement, as she finished strongly to land the Longchamp Group One when last seen. Two from two when racing on ground described as good, the Frankel filly is on an upward trajectory and could still be capable of showing further improvement.
Seven-year-old veteran Casa Creed has competed in three consecutive Breeders’ Cup meetings, failing to make an impression in each of his attempts to date. However, he comes into this year’s meeting in much better form, placing in two black-type contests before recording a Grade Three win followed by a Grade One Handicap success at Saratoga when last seen. This could be his best chance of making the frame in a Breeders’ Cup race, and his experience could hold in good stead against many of his younger rivals.
Gina Romantica narrowly beat stablemate In Italian to win the First Lady Stakes at Keeneland last month, recording her first success of the season. As a three-year-old she recorded a Grade One win in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes, won this year by Mawj.
Du Jour beat a field that included former Mark and Charlie Johnston-trained I’m A Gambler to win the Del Mar Mile Stakes in September, comfortably reversing form with Grade One winner Exaulted. The Temple City gelding has shown improvement in recent runs, but has been exposed at this level in the past.
Shirl’s Speight finished three-quarters-of-a-length second to Modern Games in the contest last year, narrowly beating Kinross to the runner-up spot when sent off at odds of 56/1. Likely to be a big-priced contender once again, it’s unwise to overlook the six-year-old horse, who will break from stall 1.
Four-year-old gelding Astronomer has a bit to find on form, now facing the toughest task of his career to date. The mount of Ryan Moore, who sports blinkers, is a big priced contender at 33/1 in the colours of co-owner Michael Tabor, and may shorten considerably prior to the off, unexposed at this level.
Verdict: A race which could provide an upset, there are a number of big-priced contenders capable of making the frame, representing each-way value. Lightly-raced Astronomer is unexposed at this level, and it would be no surprise to see a horse in the blue and orange of Tabor make the frame. Grade One proven over course-and-distance, Exaulted has previously beaten Du Jour but is a much bigger price at 33/1 but must contend with a wide draw from stall 12.
The nod goes to KELINA, whose good ground form is faultless and who shaped as though she could improve for the extra furlong, going on her Longchamp form. From an each-way angle, Shirl’s Speight (E/W) once again represents value at 40/1 and is worth keeping on side as he has the added benefit of experience in the competitive contest. He had previously placed behind formerly 122-rated Modern Games, ahead of 118-rated Kinross, and on that level of form he should be in the mix versus 118-rated Mawj and 120-rated Master Of The Seas, both of whom are available at short prices.
Prediction:
- KELINA
- Shirl’s Speight
- Mawj
Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1)
Dual Derby winner Auguste Rodin recorded Classic success at both Epsom and the Curragh this summer, before claiming the Irish Champions Stakes prize at Leopardstown when last seen. He had disappointed in the 2000 Guineas on his season opener, and again when contesting the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes, but excuses could be made for both performances and he has been otherwise faultless.
Out of Rhododendron, a three-time Group One winner by Galileo, who finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf six years ago, Auguste Rodin has a classy pedigree and appears to excel on a sound surface, boding well for his chances on the firm ground at Santa Anita. As has already been proved this season, it is unwise to discount an Aidan O’Brien-trained star, and this three-year-old colt is certainly one of Ballydoyle’s leading lights.
Prince Of Wales’s Stakes and International Stakes hero Mostahdaf missed his intended assignment in the Champion Stakes at Ascot last month, due to unsuitable soft ground. The sounder surface is certain to suit this talented son of Frankel, who has looked better than ever this term, suited by the drop back in trip to 1m2f. Now racing over a mile-and-a-half once again, the five-year-old horse has proven form over the trip and should be in contention for John & Thady Gosden.
American-bred King Of Steel has enjoyed plenty of success this season following his second-placed finish to Auguste Rodin in the Epsom Derby. He beat subsequent St Leger winner Continuous to Royal Ascot glory in the King Edward VII Stakes before finishing a respectable third in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
In the Irish Champion Stakes he finished a length behind winner Auguste Rodin, trying to make up ground coming from the rear of the field, which proved too difficult. An impressive win in the Champion Stakes at Ascot recently puts him in with a leading chance in this contest, however he has had a busy season and two of his main rivals have been kept fresh for this race.
Despite struggling to make the frame in the aforementioned Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown, Onesto was a surprising third in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, finishing a length-and-three-quarters behind Ace Impact. The French-trained has performed to a high-level at times in his career, but he isn’t the most consistent and others may be more reliable.
Up To The Mark bids for a fourth successive Grade One success, following a near perfect season in which he has suffered only one defeat in six races. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt must be respected as the most dangerous contender of the home guard and, from stall 8, Irad Ortiz Jr should be able to place him exactly where he wants him, enabling him to get the smoothest passage through the race.
Six-year-old mare War Like Goddess finished third in the race twelve months ago, and once again returns to compete for the prize following a Grade One victory. Two years ago, she finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, and given she has placed both times she has featured at the meeting, she is a reliable each-way contender, capable of making the frame, this time at enticing double figure odds.
Japanese-raider Shahryar finished fifth to Equinox in the Dubai Sheema Classic in March, a length behind fourth-placed Mostahdaf, finishing ahead of reigning champion Rebel’s Romance. However, he disappointed over 1m2f at Sapporo when last seen, and must bounce back to form if he is to be in contention at Santa Anita.
Ballydoyle representative Bolshoi Ballet has had more North American experience than his fellow Irish counterparts, and enjoyed Grade One success in the Sword Dancer Stakes at Saratoga when last seen in August. Ridden by John Velazquez, the son of Galileo has hugely improved for a switch Stateside, however on his British and Irish form he has a bit to find to match up with the main protagonists in this field.
Broome, sporting first-time blinkers, has been a hard-working servant for his connections, now making his 39th career start. The seven-year-old has featured in most of the top meetings this year, winning once when successful in the Dubai Gold Cup. He has been tried over the staying trips this term, but has been unable to land a blow in the big races and now drops back in trip to a distance over which he is proved at Group One level. Although he is a likable type and is capable of running a big race if performing to the best of his ability, he is past his peak and looks the third-string of the Ballydoyle contingent.
Verdict: Bolshoi Ballet could hold each-way claims given his Grade One winning status across the pond, however his Ballydoyle stablemate AUGUSTE RODIN is likely to excel in conditions at Santa Anita, and is fresh from his Group One win over King Of Steel at Leopardstown.
Whilst the Roger Varian-trained colt King Of Steel has improved plenty since his Derby second, he has been beaten twice by the favourite and had a hard race at Ascot two weeks ago. Up To The Mark is a big danger to Aidan O’Brien’s colt, whilst the experienced Mostahdaf skipped Ascot due to the ground conditions and will be fresh for this challenge, more suited to this test on a firmer surface.
Prediction:
- AUGUSTE RODIN
- Up To The Mark
- Mostahdaf
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
Live In The Dream has provided his connections with a dream season following a win in the Nunthorpe Stakes which guaranteed his place in this prestigious sprint contest. The four-year-old Adam West-trained gelding prepared well for the biggest race of his career with a fourth-placed finish in a Keeneland Grade Two won by Arzak last month, breaking well from the stalls and gaining some valuable North American experience.
The start will be crucial to his chances, and he has received a favourable draw in stall 5. If he is able to break well and get into a prominent position, he has an excellent chance of making all, and his owners Steve and Jolene De’Lemos, as well as his Epsom-based trainer and young jockey Sean Kirrane, would certainly be living the dream if he reigns victorious.
Reigning champion Caravel beat Big Invasion to win the Grade One Jaipur Stakes in June before being beaten twice when sent off as favourite. A recent run in the Franklin Stakes may have prepared her well for this challenge, but she must rediscover her earlier season form if she is to defend her crown.
Consistent British-bred gelding Motorious steps up in grade to Grade One level for the first time. A Grade Three winner this term, he must keep improving to make the frame as his previous British form leaves a lot to be desired and he is yet to prove himself at the top level, needing to reverse form with Nobals.
Aesop’s Fables has had plenty of excuses for below par performances this term, and finally showed his true ability with a third-placed finish in the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp. The No Nay Never colt is suited by a fast 5f trip, and he holds each-way claims given his recent performance behind Highfield Princess.
Verdict: Sprints are often exceptionally difficult to predict and with many runners form intertwined, fine margins could make the difference. The start will be crucial, as American sprints are often run at a frantic pace, and the speed shown when breaking from the stalls could be the difference between winning or being left behind.
Success for LIVE IN THE DREAM would be a fairytale result and as he has had a preparation run in the United States already, his chances of winning have increased. He must break well and maintain a fast pace throughout, ensuring his rivals aren’t able to make up the ground.
The British and Irish representatives have lively chances and Aesop’s Fables certainly holds each-way claims for powerful connections. Likely to pounce late on, the Aidan O’Brien-trained colt must stay close enough to the pace to have a chance of getting involved. The home guard will be dangerous however with Caravel, the proven contender representing trainer Brad Cox, bidding for a second consecutive win in the contest.
All runners/odds are correct at the time of publication.
Cover photo by Gene Devine on Unsplash
THE CONDITIONAL 