Katie Midwinter (23/11/23)
The Conditional is back following a brief hiatus with a preview of the main races at Haydock as well as a look at the Grade Two showpiece at Ascot and a brief overview of the main action at Punchestown.
HAYDOCK
1:50pm – Graduation Chase (Class 2)
An intriguing contest is on the cards in the Graduation Chase, as Willie Mullins sends over National Hunt Chase winner and Grand National third Gaillard Du Mesnil. Yet to finish out of the first three in all of his starts for the Closutton yard so far, the consistent performer has placed in the Ballymore, Irish Grand National and most recently the Aintree Grand National, proving his staying credentials and reliability.
His success at the Cheltenham Festival was impressive, albeit made slightly easier by Mahler Mission’s untimely fall at the second last. The E250,000 purchase is difficult to go against in this field but connections will have their sights set on future targets and this shorter trip is unlikely to be suited to the dour stayer at this stage in his career. He must carry top weight in the hands of Patrick Mullins, giving 18lbs to his biggest threat on ratings, Apple Away, who makes her chasing debut.
The Lucinda Russell camp appear bullish about the prospects of their star mare, last seen beating Grade Two winner Maximilian to land the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. She clearly possesses plenty of talent but, although she is in receipt of weight and her rating suggests she is in with an excellent chance of claiming the prize, she must prove herself over the fences and jump with fluency if she is to be successful.
On ratings alone and considering race conditions, Grey Dawning is the only other contender with a viable chance, representing the Dan Skelton yard. Despite being beaten on chasing debut by Albert Barlett winner Stay Away Fay, second to Maximilian in a Sandown Grade Two, the three-mile trip may have stretched his stamina capabilities, and this drop back to 2m5f could prove to be a more adequate distance. If he is able to beat Gaillard Du Mesnil for speed in the closing stages, he is likely to be closer to Apple Away than many expect, capable of making his presence felt.
Verdict: A tricky race to predict given that Gaillard Du Mesnil has more important targets on the horizon in future, and a mark of 156 looks stiff enough to begin a campaign in which the Grand National could be the plan once again. Although he should be winning a race of this nature and the booking of Patrick Mullins instills confidence, he may be vulnerable to an improving type on his first start of the season over a shorter trip than required.
Apple Away is a risky selection on her chasing debut facing two capable geldings, however she is capable of showing plenty of further progression and looks to have a bright future ahead of her. Grey Dawning is worthy of consideration, dropped back in trip and if he is able to jump with fluency he is in with a chance.
It is likely to be between the three market principles and GAILLARD DU MESNIL is the pick of the trio on form, ratings and at the weights. He has the experience to make a winning return to action and should see off his rivals if he is fit and ready.
2:20pm – Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Emmet Mullins-trained Slate Lane, in the familiar colours of Paul Byrne, is unsurprisingly prominent at the head of the market ahead of this Grade Three Handicap contest at Haydock. The flashy chestnut is bidding for a fourth successive victory, unbeaten since joining his new connections. He has put almost fifteen-lengths between himself and his rivals in his trio of British wins this season, and proved his stamina capabilities with a comfortable win over an extended 3m2f at Newton Abbot in September. Kept fresh since, he could still be well handicapped on a rating of 127, potentially capable of performing off a higher mark. Unexposed at this level, this is the toughest challenge he has faced so far and he is one to keep on side.
Crambo holds leading claims as a progressive type that could still be ahead of the handicapper. On a mark of 139, he is up 6lbs for his Aintree victory over Santos Blue, and has shaped as though a step up to 3m is within his capabilities.
Dan Skelton-trained Santos Blue finished third behind recent Listed winner Broadway Boy on his first start over 3m at Cheltenham in April. With the form of his penultimate run having been franked, and his proven stamina over the trip, he is a reliable each-way selection in the hands of 7lb claimer Ben Sutton.
An intriguing contender is course-and-distance winner Emitom. The nine-year-old made a winning start to his career at Alan King’s with success over Hyland at Newbury, the form of which has been franked following the runner-up’s impressive victory at Cheltenham when last seen. The former Group Two winner has shown he still possesses plenty of ability and has seen a resurgence in his form since switching yards earlier this year. Although he is likely to be past his best at this stage in his career, he is a formidable contender on his day and could be well handicapped off a mark of 127.
Gowel Road hasn’t been seen since October last year when he won a handicap chase at Ascot. The return over hurdles off a mark of 140 could allow him to be competitive if he is ready for the challenge following his absence, but he is yet to win when fresh.
Carbon King, a twelve-length winner over Buddy One at Limerick in January when trained by Declan Queally, has shown little in two starts over two miles for Evan Williams. Dropping a total of 7lbs, he now runs off a mark of 126, 26lbs lower than Buddy One who won a competitive handicap hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday and had previously finished third in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle. If he is able to rediscover form with leniency from the handicapper and over a more adequate trip, a mile further than his recent starts, he is in with a chance of making the frame at current odds of 66/1.
Making his debut for Willie Mullins, Fine Margin is largely an unknown quantity. He once placed in a point-to-point won by Corbetts Cross but is yet to record a win under rules. It would be some feat if he was able to land his maiden in such a competitive contest as this on his first start for the yard.
Lord Snootie has been performing well this year for Christian Williams and showed his toughness with a fifth-placed finish in a competitive Punchestown contest in April. Seventh on reappearance at Galway, nearly eighteen-lengths behind the aforementioned Buddy One, he is 3lbs higher here on a workable mark of 123 that could still allow him to be competitive.
Verdict: One of the trickier puzzles on the card, with a number of horses capable of being good enough to win this valuable contest if at their best. There are a number of unexposed types in the race too, making for an intriguing contest, one that’s extremely difficult to predict, but also in which there appears to be plenty of each-way value. Emitom has been in much better order of late since switching yards, and has the course experience that could hold him in good stead whilst Carbon King showed plenty of promise when trained in Ireland and will benefit from the extra mile at this track.
From a win perspective it could be a battle between the Mullins’, with Emmet Mullins saddling the unexposed Slate Lane, and Willie Mullins saddling new recruit Fine Margin. It is yet to be seen whether or not the Irish duo are good enough to perform at this level, but they must be respected and should be considered.
3:00pm – Betfair Chase (Grade 1)
Paul Nicholls has secured the services of three-time Betfair Chase winner Daryl Jacob, victorious in three renewals between 2017 and 2020 aboard Bristol De Mai, to ride King George VI Chase hero and Gold Cup runner-up Bravemansgame. Regular rider Harry Cobden heads to Ascot instead to ride Pic D’Orhy in the 1965 Chase, where the eight-year-old needs to reverse form with reigning champion Shishkin who is attempting to retain his crown in the Grade Two showpiece on the card.
Bravemansgame suffered a shock defeat when last seen defending his Charlie Hall Chase title, a mistake at the last scuppering his chances when beaten by the impressive Irish-raider, Gentlemansgame. The reason for Bravemansgame’s defeat caused plenty of passionate views and debates among racing fans, with many suggesting momentum was lost with the last fence error, whilst others believe tiredness and lack of race fitness played its part. Either way, Bravemansgame, who is usually faultless over the fences, and his partner Jacob, must ensure that a repeat performance isn’t in the offing. The eight-year-old will have to be at his best to fend off the challenge of last year’s emphatic winner Protektorat, as well as course specialist Royale Pagaille and the Grand National winner, Corach Rambler.
Defending champion Protektorat put eleven-lengths between himself and the rest of the field as he cantered to victory across the line in the hands of Harry Skelton twelve months ago. Eldorado Allen, Frodon and Bristol De Mai all trailed in behind, whilst A Plus Tard failed to fire and never looked comfortable, pulled up by jockey Rachael Blackmore when beaten. Whilst it was an impressive performance by the Dan Skelton-trained contender, who had previously finished third ahead of Royale Pagaille in the Gold Cup, he faces much stiffer opposition here. Last year he beat now 153-rated Eldorado Allen, as well as veteran Frodon and since retired Bristol De Mai. The threat of the 172-rated Bravemansgame will be significantly harder to overcome, and although there could be more to come from Protektorat, the course-and-distance winner may need a career best performance to retain his crown.
Venetia Williams has been in excellent form of late, performing at a 43% strike rate in the past two weeks, saddling twelve horses to victory with many others running well in defeat. The yard’s form plus the proven form at the course puts Royale Pagaille in with a relatively good chance of making the frame, however he must show significant improvement to match the level shown by Bravemansgame, and the ground may not be as testing as required for the nine-year-old to be seen to best effect.
Corach Rambler has plenty to find on ratings, now on a career-high mark of 159. However, the Lucinda Russell-trained gelding has proven form over the trip, as seen when winning back-to-back renewals of the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, most recently beating Fastorslow, a subsequent Punchestown Gold Cup winner over Galopin Des Champs and Bravemansgame. The Aintree hero possesses plenty of class and has the benefit of a recent run that could see him go well.
Verdict: BRAVEMANSGAME may have won at Wetherby with a cleaner jump at the final fence but regardless of his Charlie Hall Chase disappointment, he will be a fitter horse this time around and he has already beaten two of his rivals convincingly in past engagements.
It’s a shame that there are only four runners in contention, as Royale Pagaille would have an excellent each-way chance considering his prior form at the track and his yard’s current form, however it is difficult to imagine a scenario in which he will improve enough to beat Bravemansgame if the latter is anywhere near his best.
Corach Rambler is an interesting contender but he must prove himself at this level and improve plenty to compete with the favourite. Protektorat poses the biggest threat making his first appearance since a wind operation and could be open to further progression but he has been soundly beaten by Bravemansgame in the past.
ASCOT
1:30pm – 1965 Chase (Grade 2)
Shishkin sports first-time cheekpieces in an attempt to make a winning start to his season in this Grade Two contest. The talented nine-year-old is an exceptional horse on his day without being the most straightforward. He finished third in the Tingle Creek on his season opener last year, on his first run back following a disappointing effort when pulled up in the Champion Chase, that was found to be caused by a rare bone condition.
Returning to form in the Ascot Chase when beating Pic D’Orhy by sixteen-lengths, Shishkin looked set for redemption at Cheltenham in the Ryanair Chase but struggled to find a rhythm and was too late to mount a challenge when the race was lost. With the Nicky Henderson yard currently performing at a 40% strike rate and Shishkin 11lbs clear of his rivals on ratings, the course-and-distance winner will be difficult to beat and looks set to make it a perfect preparation ahead of a tilt at the King George VI Chase at Kempton next month.
PUNCHESTOWN
There is plenty to look forward to on the card at Punchestown including Gaelic Warrior’s chasing debut in the third race on the card. The 153-rated hurdler is well clear of his rivals on hurdles ratings and if he is able to transfer his form over timber he has an excellent chance of making a winning start to his chasing career.
The Grade Two Florida Pearl Novice Chase has welcomed a talented field of seven runners, all tightly grouped and in with a chance of making the frame. Flooring Porter sets the standard after an impressive chase debut success at Cheltenham but faces stiff opposition in the form of Affordale Fury, Favori De Champdou and the unexposed Quilixios. Sandor Clegane will be better suited to this longer trip than when fourth to Imagine at Fairyhouse, whilst Churchstone Warrior brings Grade Two winning form over fences into the race and could make his presence felt.
The Grade One Morgiana Hurdle is the feature race on the card but has only managed to attract four runners and looks set to be a straightforward task for odds on favourite State Man, who is 9lbs clear of his closest rival Pied Piper. His Closutton stablemate Echoes In Rain receives the mares allowance, but has 13lbs to find on ratings and is unlikely to match State Man for speed, whilst recent Grade Three winner Fils D’oudairies completes the line up for Gordon Elliott.
All runners/prices are correct at the time of publication.
THE CONDITIONAL 