Katie Midwinter (02/01/24)
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The first race of the Cheltenham Festival is always hugely anticipated. The roar of the crowd as the horses set off in pursuit of glory on the hallowed turf at Prestbury Park is a special moment, as is the emergence of a potential superstar from the novice ranks in the two-mile hurdling division.
Vautour, Altior, Shishkin and Constitution Hill are just a few names that have used the race as a stepping stone to greatness in the past decade. Last year, racegoers were treated to an incredible performance from Marine Nationale, who successfully thwarted the efforts of runner-up Facile Vega to provide Barry Connell with his first Festival winner as trainer.
Perhaps this season will be the time for another new name on the list of winning trainers as the training partnership of John and Thomas Kiely may attempt consecutive Cheltenham Festival victories with their Champion Bumper hero, A Dream To Share.
The Flat-bred gelding coped exceptionally well with softer conditions to land a fairytale win in the final race on Wednesday’s card at Cheltenham last year, in the hands of amateur jockey John Gleeson. The form of the race has worked out well with a number of horses in behind going on to win or perform well in subsequent appearances and, although the aptly named six-year-old is yet to be seen this term, he is still firmly in calculations should he be ready come March. He suffered a setback during the first-half of the season but is expected to make his hurdling debut soon, and his price would surely shorten should it be a successful first try over timber.
Jeriko Du Reponet had been highly touted as a future star for Seven Barrows before making his rules debut in a maiden hurdle at Newbury. He has won both hurdle starts with ease, despite not winning in emphatic fashion, and now finds himself at the top of the market in ante-post betting.
The unexposed gelding is yet to be challenged by genuine Grade One contenders this term, and his price may be slightly short considering what he has achieved so far. However, he has done little wrong and if he is to live up to expectations, it will take a brave punter to oppose him.
Point winner It’s For Me finished fifth in Grade One bumpers at both the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals, respectively, last term, but bounced back to winning form with an impressive maiden hurdle win over subsequent Grade One winner Caldwell Potter on his seasonal reappearance. He showed good speed to win on hurdling debut but may have beaten a horse better suited to a tougher test of stamina, and has plenty to find with A Dream To Share on bumper form.
Whilst he is the current shortest-priced of the possible Closutton contenders, he is yet to show enough to suggest he will take all of the beating come March, but may be good enough to make the frame if he is able to show further progression.
The aforementioned Caldwell Potter improved for his first outing of the season to win comfortably at Navan before taking another step forward when beating Predators Gold by six-and-a-half-lengths in a Leopardstown Grade One. He is highly effective on testing ground, and may be suited by a step up in trip, along with Predators Gold. Both horses could be better suited to the Ballymore, run over 2m5f, especially if conditions became testing on the day at Cheltenham.
Another potential Willie Mullins-trained runner is the beautifully bred Mystical Power, a son of Galileo out of five-time Grade One winner Annie Power. He has shown enough in two career runs to suggest he possesses the speed required to be competitive over two miles, yet he is less experienced than many of his potential rivals and his entry in the Lawlors Of Naas on Sunday indicates a step up in trip is in the offing. This could mean he is more likely to run in the Ballymore as opposed to the Supreme, as last year’s main protagonists in the Naas Grade One all went on to run over 2m4f or further.
If he fails to stay the trip well enough on Sunday, given he is declared and does run, connections could opt to drop him back in trip but it wouldn’t be an ideal scenario ahead of the Supreme, and perhaps the likeliest outcome is a preparation run ahead of a stint at the Ballymore.
With the lack of a clear standout contender from Closutton in current markets, the value could lie with Daddy Long Legs. The French-bred was a €210,000 purchase in July 2022 and hadn’t been seen for 555 days before making a winning debut for the yard at Thurles in November. Cleatus Poolaw finished second in that maiden hurdle, and was again runner-up, this time to Ballyburn, on his subsequent run on inadequate ground.
Irish Panther was in third at Thurles, beaten fourteen-and-a-quarter-lengths by the impressive winner. The Edward O’Grady-trained gelding represents a good formline given he has performed consistently well so far, as he has chased home the likes of Fact Or File, Ballyburn and Farren Glory, respectively, in three of his career starts.
Although Daddy Long Legs disappointed in his subsequent run, it may be worth forgiving given that the conditions at Leopardstown were extremely testing and his hurdling was less than efficient, a significant downgrade on his fluent jumping on debut. He was also quite keen in the early stages and on the backfoot throughout, failing to settle. A drift from a single-figure price to a best price of 40/1 appears an overreaction, especially considering that many of his stablemates ahead of him in the market appear more likely to have other targets in sight.
The Almanzor gelding has plenty of class and speed, and will be suited by a quicker race run on a sounder surface. The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle hasn’t been run on heavy since 2018 and since it is the first race of the Festival the ground tends to be fresh and in good order. A test of speed would allow Daddy Long Legs to show his class and thrive, if he does line-up, and with the lack of an obvious first-choice from Closutton in current ante-post markets, it may be worth giving him another chance to prove himself.
Ante-post selection:
DADDY LONG LEGS 40/1 (best priced – bet365), 33/1 in places, 20/1 (generally + NRNB)
Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
The Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle has been won by a number of superstars in the past including the likes of Istabraq and Faugheen. Recent renewals have seen talented youngsters Envoi Allen, Bob Olinger and Sir Gerhard claim the crown whilst last year emerged a potential star in five-year-old Impaire Et Passe, making only his third start for Willie Mullins. Mullins is the leading trainer on six victories and could hold a strong hand as he attempts to record a third consecutive victory in the race.
Ballyburn was beaten by Firefox, who had the benefit of a recent run, on hurdling debut before making an effortless step up in trip to easily land a maiden hurdle success at Leopardstown. He looks set to be Closutton’s main contender in the Ballymore, all being well. There appears little reason to oppose him, despite having already been defeated by Firefox once this season.
As mentioned, he was making his seasonal reappearance over a shorter trip and showed great improvement on his subsequent run on testing ground, indicating he will stay further in time. A stamina test over 2m5f at Cheltenham should present ideal conditions for the Flemensfirth gelding.
Gordon Elliott’s Firefox has been exposed in the past, with two defeats in his first two starts. However, he was unbeaten during 2023 with four victories and is a progressive type. There is plenty to suggest he could improve further with a step up in trip, given is related to a number of useful performers over the intermediate distance. By Walk In The Park, there is a lot to like about his profile and he shouldn’t be discounted.
His stablemate Caldwell Potter has shaped as the perfect type for a stamina test in the Ballymore, especially if the ground was to turn up as soft or worse on the day. He has impressed in two starts on heavy ground this term, galloping through the mud in testing conditions with apparent ease.
Being a brother to the high-class Mighty Potter, as well as a half-brother to useful performers French Dynamite and Indiana Jones, there is plenty of class in his pedigree. The Martaline gelding could improve further over fences but may be good enough to pose a threat over hurdles in the novice division this term.
Slade Steel was beaten by Ballyburn in a Punchestown bumper last year, before making a winning start to life over hurdles at Naas in November. He beat runner-up King Of Kingsfield, who subsequently beat Mirazur West to win his maiden hurdle, by five-and-a-half-lengths in impressive fashion, pulling clear over the two-mile trip, still full of running.
A Grade Two victory at Navan followed, in which the Henry de Bromhead-trained gelding beat four rivals including Lecky Watson, Stellar Story and Better Days Ahead, to claim the crown. His dam, Mariet, was most effective over the intermediate trip which gives every indication that the Ballymore will be better suited by this challenge, as opposed to the 3m test of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.
Predators Gold, a €100,000 purchase, impressed on bumper debut before beating subsequent winner Mossy Fen Park comfortably on hurdling debut at Punchestown. His maiden hurdle win came over a 2m3½f trip, before he dropped back in trip on heavy ground at Leopardstown, finishing second to Caldwell Potter when pulling well clear of the third-placed horse, Down Memory Lane.
The gelding has proven he possesses plenty of stamina and has a touch of class, and would be suited by the stamina test of a Ballymore contest. However, a step up to three miles wouldn’t appear out of his capabilities either, and with a star performer in stablemate Ballyburn likely to be tough to beat, it would be no surprise to see him use his stamina to great effect in the 3m contest later on in the week.
British-trained horses have won just one of the past ten renewals of the Ballymore, which doesn’t bode well for Harry Fry’s Gidleigh Park, however the unexposed gelding’s form was upgraded on Saturday thanks to The Jukebox Man’s third-place finish in the Challow Hurdle. The only blemish on the Ben Pauling-trained gelding’s record prior to his Grade One appearance was a defeat by Gidleigh Park at Chepstow on debut.
Gidleigh Park has defeated his rivals by a combined margin of twenty-two-and-a-half-lengths in three starts. The son of Walk In The Park may represent the best of the home guard.
Evan Williams-trained Minella Missile was a surprise Grade Two winner at Cheltenham, beating subsequent Grade One winner Captain Teague. The point winner is two from two under rules and clearly possesses some class. It will take a significant step forward if he is to compete with the Irish battalion, however the form of his previous run has been considerably franked and he could well be overlooked.
Ile Atlantique shaped with great promise when making a winning start under rules in a bumper but was subsequently beaten twice, by Stellar Story and Firefox respectively, on ground that perhaps wasn’t as testing as desired. His maiden hurdle success came on heavy ground at Gowran Park in November, when beating his rivals with ease over two miles. He looks the type to need a real test of stamina and thrives in softer conditions. If the ground does become testing, he would enter calculations as a lively each-way contender, however he appears ground dependent and therefore is a risky ante-post bet.
Of the other potential contenders, Farren Glory has enjoyed a fruitful campaign so far and landed a first Grade One success at Fairyhouse over stablemate King Of Kingsfield plus An Tobar, before falling two out when travelling strongly at Aintree. The seven-year-old may be vulnerable to an improving younger rival and was exposed in a Fairyhouse Grade Two in April. However, he has clearly improved plenty and must be respected on recent form.
Another to consider is Knockeen’s An Tobar. Third in a Grade One when last seen, he has shaped as though a step up in trip could bring with it further improvement and he is an enticing price at a best price of 33/1.
Ante-post selection:
BALLYBURN 4/1 (generally)
Alternative:
CALDWELL POTTER 12/1 (generally)
Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
It’s generally 12/1 the field in ante-post markets for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, making it an extremely difficult race to predict. Won last year by the talented Stay Away Fay, it was a surprise result in a dramatic contest in which market leader Corbetts Cross ran out. Top class performers such as Minella Indo and Monkfish have won the race in the past, and its most recent victor could go on to achieve plenty if his first two starts over fences is anything to go by.
Last year’s winning trainer, Paul Nicholls, could be represented by Challow Hurdle champion Captain Teague, but connections may opt for a try at the Ballymore if the ground turned up testing come March. Given the manner in which he landed the Grade One prize at Newbury, a step up to three-miles would appear to be within his reach and the Albert Bartlett could be a more feasible target.
High Class Hero is the current market leader at a general price of 12/1. He finished second to American Mike in a point-to-point, before beating Spirit Of Legend at Loughbrickland. It bodes well for his stamina capabilities over three miles, and he has shaped as a thorough stayer this term. He made light work of three rivals to land a Listed prize at Limerick, on heavy ground over 2m5f, and is so far living up to his name.
His Closutton stablemate Blizzard Of Oz dealt well with a heavy surface on hurdling debut at Punchestown on his seasonal reappearance, building on a second-placed finish in a Grade Two Aintree bumper. The form of the Aintree bumper doesn’t appear the strongest, despite producing a few winners, and further improvement is required.
Chapeau De Soleil is included in markets for both the Ballymore and Albert Bartlett. The six-year-old gelding has plenty of ability and could shape into a Grade One winning horse this term, however would need to show further improvement if he is to win a big prize at the Cheltenham Festival. He is entered in the Lawlors Of Naas on Sunday, which gives an indication that he will compete in either the Ballymore or Albert Bartlett in March. The latter may be the more obvious choice, given that Closutton have a number of potential contenders that are likely to head to the Ballymore, including hot favourite Ballyburn.
The previously mentioned Predators Gold could feature in the three mile contest rather than the shorter trip of the Ballymore. Stamina will be of no concern, and he would likely be the one to beat on the form he has shown so far. At the prices he appears the most intriguing contender. Generally 20/1, most of the talk is about the Ballymore but with Willie Mullins likely to hold a strong hand already in the race, and the proven staying credentials of Predators Gold, he could be the perfect candidate for this race.
Il Atlantique is another possible contender, and has shaped as though he’ll stay further but as mentioned, appears to be ground dependent, which is a concern, and is yet to be tested over further than two miles in Ireland.
Gordon Elliott could saddle impressive Grade Three winner Croke Park, a £400,000 purchase by Walk In The Park. He has shaped as though a step up in trip would suit when winning at Navan on soft to heavy ground in November.
Fellow Elliott-trained My Trump Card failed to fire when a beaten favourite at Fairyhouse on the first day of the year. He’s now unlikely to take a chance in the Ballymore but could step up in trip to run over a further trip that could suit. All of his runs to date have come on ground described as soft or worse, therefore it’s unlikely he was unsuited by the going at Fairyhouse and may just have lacked the speed required to match eventual winner I Will Be Baie.
Shanagh Bob won a Grade Two over three miles at Cheltenham, staying on well in the finish to beat his rivals on his second start over hurdles. It was the perfect preparation for the Albert Bartlett and he looks to be one of the more likely runners on the day.
Ante-post selection:
PREDATORS GOLD 14/1 (NRNB only)
* All prices are correct at the time of writing.
THE CONDITIONAL 