Katie Midwinter (30/05/24)
OAKS PREVIEW
4:30pm – The Oaks (Group 1)
Untried over further than a mile, Ylang Ylang attempts to improve on her Classic fifth in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket, where she made late headway, finishing strongly approaching the line. She should improve for a step up in trip, but whether or not this extra four furlongs will be within her stamina capability remains to be seen.
By Frankel, and her dam Shambolic placed in Listed company over a mile-and-a-half. This gives some hope that she should be good enough to stay the trip, but if the ground is soft come off time, there are other likelier stayers in the field that may represent more value. Ylang Ylang has plenty of class and it was unfortunate that the ground dried out too much for her to stamp any authority at Newmarket. If she stays, she certainly has a big part to play.
The second of the Ballydoyle representatives is Galileo filly Rubies Are Red, the mount of Wayne Lordan. She is yet to break her maiden tag but has been improving with each start, and put in her best performance to date when second over an extended 1m3f in the trial race at Lingfield. On that occasion she stayed on best of all from the rear of the field, having lost ground when the race started to develop. She was a real eyecatcher, and the manner of her performance suggested a further step up in trip would suit.
Being by Galileo, she shouldn’t be shy of stamina, but her dam, Red Evie, was a dual Group One winner over a mile, and produced the likes of Arc winner Found, and Best In The World, dam of Oaks winner Snowfall. With plenty of class in her pedigree, plus Classic, and Group One winning relations, it may be worth siding with this progressive and improving filly should the ground remain on the softer side.
Dermot Weld-trained filly Ezeliya brings some impressive Group Three form into the race. With plenty to suggest an imminent step up in grade will be within her capability, she holds leading claims considering the level of opponent she has beaten and the fact she is proven over a mile-and-a-quarter. She beat subsequent Group Three winner Wendla to land her maiden, before claiming the Salsabil Stakes ahead of Purple Lily, Everlasting, and the well-bred Wingspan.
There is plenty of stamina in her pedigree too, and her dam, Eziyra, won a Group Three over 1m4f plus placed behind Enable in the Irish Oaks. The Dubawi filly makes plenty of appeal on form and pedigree, and if Ylang Ylang does falter in the closing stages, Ezeliya will likely be staying on well enough to pick up the pieces.
Forest Fairy, from the first crop of foals by Arc winner Waldgeist, has done little wrong in two starts to date, maintaining an unbeaten record whilst proving herself over the middle distance trips. The form of her debut success at Wolverhampton is yet to be franked, but the manner of her victory, despite showing some greenness, was impressive, winning by six-lengths. Her Cheshire Oaks success should set her up perfectly for a tilt at this Classic, and the experience around a tricky, tight track such as Chester should prove invaluable.
Trainer Ralph Beckett is no stranger to winning the Oaks, having saddled Look Here and Talent to victory in the past, and is currently in good form. As well as being represented by Forest Fairy in this year’s field, he also saddles the trial winner You Got To Me. She benefited from being on the front end at Lingfield when last seen, but showed a great attitude, determination and tenacity to repel the challenge of her rivals and kept on galloping towards the line.
Clearly a strong stayer, possessing plenty of stamina being by Nathaniel out of 1m4f Listed winner Brushing, You Got To Me is one of the more reliable staying types in the field, and could be tough to pass if she is able to gain a prominent position early on.
Mastercraftsman filly Treasure was unsuited by the sounder surface when beaten a length-and-three-quarters by her stablemate You Got To Me in the trial. She stayed on well enough to give hope in her chances here however, and the ease in conditions will suit perfectly. A heavy ground winner on debut over an extended mile, the grey filly, bred by Her Late Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, holds each-way claims at an enticing price of 16/1.
Sea The Stars filly Seaward made a pleasing return at Chester earlier this month, but she has to step up on the form she has shown so far. The step up in trip from her juvenile season should bring improvement from the filly, but whether or not she is up to this level remains to be seen.
Secret Satire threw her name into the mix with success in the Musidora Stakes, the form of which has since been franked by subsequent Listed winner Francophone. She is another improving type in the field, who could enjoy this step up to a mile-and-a-half.
In-form trainer Charlie Appleby saddles Dance Sequence, a winner over 7f who was disappointing over a mile when last seen in Group One company. By Dubawi, out of a 1m2f winning mare Tearless, she shouldn’t be discounted over this extra distance but there is little on form to suggest she will be competitive in these conditions.
Noel Meade-trained Caught U Looking finished two-lengths behind Ezeliya at Navan when last seen and will need to improve for her seasonal reappearance if she is to be competitive. She beat subsequent Group Three winners Brilliant and Content to land the Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh last September, and although she is yet to prove herself over a further than 7f, her pedigree suggests she’ll possess plenty of stamina and she could be able to outrun her odds of 33/1.
Fresh from a Classic double last Sunday, Karl Burke saddles Make Believe filly Making Dreams, who has already been highly tried as she makes her 13th career start. She proved she was more than a handicapper when winning the Group Three Prix Penelope at Saint-Cloud over an extended 1m2f on heavy, suggesting the step up in trip to a mile-and-a-half should prove no problem but she may need extreme testing conditions to have a say.
More is needed from War Chimes if she is to outrun her odds of 100/1 as she is yet to make a mark this season. She did win a Listed Chantilly contest on her final run of her juvenile campaign, beating a subsequent winner in Sosie by five-lengths, however she is another that would likely benefit from a deluge of rain that looks unlikely to arrive.
Verdict: It’s an exceptionally tricky race to predict because there’s a case to be made for a number of fillies in the field. Having advised Ylang Ylang for the 1,000 Guineas at 50/1, I had also ensured to select her for the Oaks as well at 33/1 at the time.
I’m worried about the step up in trip in softer conditions as she looked to me like a filly made for a mile-and-a-quarter, but quick enough to be highly effective over the mile. Unfortunately the ground dried out too much for her at Newmarket, and she got going too late to win in the end, but this is a significant step up in trip, and although she has looked to be doing her best work in the closing stages over a mile, the extra four furlongs isn’t guaranteed to suit.
Her price of 2/1 now appears too short over this trip on form shown, but I hope she will put in a big performance all the same and I’m happy to be proven wrong on my stamina concerns.
The value has gone with Rubies Are Red who is short enough each-way at 6/1 and although there is plenty to like about her on pedigree, and the manner in which she finished off her race in the trial, she is still yet to record a victory which is a concern from a win perspective.
The value may lie with the trial winner You Got To Me who showed plenty of tenacity to win from the front at Lingfield, in a race that should set her up nicely for this. I’m a big fan of fillies by Nathaniel over 1m4f or further as they often seem to love a test of stamina. Should she make it a real test from the front, she could be tough to pass and 12/1 seems fair.
The other to consider is Treasure who was very impressive when landing her maiden at Nottingham and can be forgiven for her performance at Lingfield on account of the drying ground. If there is soft in the description, which it looks likely there will be, she should put in a better showing and looks overlooked at 16/1.
Selection(s): You Got To Me 12/1 & Treasure 16/1 (both each-way)
THE REST OF THE CARD:
2:00pm – Woodcote Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2)
Teej A looks a nice filly for the in-form Karl Burke, who saddled two Classic winners on Sunday. Mehmas is highly effective with his two-year-old progeny, and softer ground shouldn’t be too much of a concern. The mount of Clifford Lee, Teej A has valuable experience in her favour and showed great improvement on her debut effort to land her maiden at Chester when last seen. She can take another step forward in this contest.
Selection: Teej A 8/1 (each-way)
2:35pm – Class 2 Handicap
It may be worth sticking with the David O’Meara camp in this contest. He’s represented by three live chances in Bopedro, Blue For You, and Orbaan. The latter is 12lbs lower than when finishing fourth in the race last year, and showed promise on his most recent start over 7f at Ayr. He’ll prefer this longer trip over the extended mile, and is ground versatile. Representing great each-way value at the prices, he’s the main selection from the trio, but Blue For You, making his second appearance following wind surgery, makes plenty of appeal too.
Selection(s): Orbaan 12/1 & Blue For You 12/1 (both each-way)
3:10pm – Coronation Cup (Group 1)
Course-and-distance winner Emily Upjohn won this race last year, and is the one to beat as she aims to defend her title. Luxembourg is her biggest threat on ratings, and on form. However, he is most effective over a mile-and-a-half, and this longer trip, on softer ground, where he is likely to make the running, could test his stamina unless Ryan Moore is able to time his fractions well enough on the front end to turn it into a speed test rather than a stamina test.
Testing conditions and a tough test of stamina could bring outsider Hamish into play, but this is a big step up in grade and he has 4lbs to find with the favourite, who receives the fillies’ allowance. A price of 25/1 appears generous however, as he is a reliable type who has an excellent win record and is bidding for a six successive victory.
French-raider Feed The Flame has Group One winning form but must step up on his recent performances and has plenty to find on ratings. Supplemented Time Lock is equipped with first-time cheekpieces in an attempt to improve on her reappearance at Newmarket. She has to prove herself at Group One level, and isn’t guaranteed to be suited by conditions should they remain soft come Friday.
The likeliest winner is Emily Upjohn, who is highly effective over the distance and has crucial course form. She should prove good enough to win on her return to Epsom. Luxembourg is a formidable opponent, but he may just lack the stamina to compete in the finish on ground softer than ideal over this trip.
No selection
3:45pm – Class 2 Handicap
In an open race, Haunted Dream is the reliable each-way selection in the field. Comfortable on varied ground conditions, he must defy a career-high mark of 104 but could be capable of showing further improvement for his new connections. He finished a neck second to Group One winner Simca Mille, now 117-rated, at Doha when last seen, and if he is able to run up to that level again, he holds strong claims on his current mark.
Selection: Haunted Dream 12/1 (each-way)
5:10pm – Surrey Stakes (Listed Race) & 5:40pm – Class 2 Handicap
No selections in the final two races on the card but mentions for Bellarchi (5:10) and The X O (5:40), respectively.
Listed level could just be testing Bellarchi (14/1) a bit too much, but she is never one to rule out and is a really likable filly who duly obliged having been well backed into 8/1 at Ascot recently.
The X O (22/1) is another capable of performing at a higher level than in handicap company, but the step up to 7f on softer ground is a concern as he sometimes doesn’t see out his races well enough over 6f to suggest the extra furlong is required. Both are worth keeping an eye on in their respective races and are horses I have been following for a while, but this may not be the day to catch them.
* prices are correct at the time of publication
Image by Søren Hempel from Pixabay
THE CONDITIONAL 