Katie Midwinter 31/05/24
SATURDAY
The Derby (Group 1) – 4:30pm
City Of Troy was an exceptional juvenile. The talking horse of last season, the first two Classics of this campaign looked to be heading home with him to Ballydoyle. However, the 2,000 Guineas didn’t go to plan, with the son of Justify failing to make any impression and fading tamely when asked for an effort. It’s hard to find a reasonable excuse for the disappointment.
Last year, Auguste Rodin came into the race following a similar preparation. He was far superior at two, but he was bitterly disappointing at Newmarket. Auguste Rodin could have been excused for the ground however, and he bounced back in impressive fashion to become the Derby winner.
It’s hard to envisage a scenario in which City Of Troy repeats that feat, and coming from stall 1 could prove difficult unless he breaks exceptionally well and gets plenty of luck in the straight. If anyone can get a horse back to its best though, it’s Aidan O’Brien. A horse trained by the great master should never be ruled out. But, it would go down as one of his greatest achievements if he is able to get this colt back to the winners’ enclosure at Epsom.
The colt has become more of a backable price in recent days, and if he is able to return to the heights of his juvenile campaign, 7/2 could represent value for City Of Troy.
Stablemate Los Angeles appears to be his biggest threat according to current markets. The Camelot colt is unbeaten and made a pleasing return this season when winning a Leopardstown Group Three.
This step up in trip should suit and he’s certainly made an impression so far. Whether or not he’s the best colt in this field remains to be seen, but there’s little reason to knock him on form or his profile.
O’Brien also saddles Euphoric who was a length behind the aforementioned Los Angeles earlier in May. Despite not being too far behind his stablemate, the Frankel colt will have plenty to find to reverse the form and looks unlikely to trouble the main contenders in this field. He fetched 1,900,000gns as a yearling however, therefore could have more to offer than what he’s shown so far.
Charlie Appleby-trained Ancient Wisdom will thrive if conditions are testing come Saturday. His exaggerated knee action, as displayed when winning a heavy ground Futurity Trophy, suggested he loved softer ground and his six-length second to Economics in a good ground Dante provided further evidence to that claim.
Perhaps he’ll come on for his opening run of the season, but it’s likely he’ll need conditions to remain on the softer side if he is to play a leading role, and he must do something no other horse has been able to do, win from stall 11.
There has been plenty of talk surrounding Ambiente Friendly’s jockey booking, as Rab Havlin takes the ride, preferred to Callum Shepherd. But there has been less talk about the colt’s chances following his win in the Listed trial at Lingfield. He put four-and-a-half-lengths between himself and Illinois on that occasion, shaping with promise and looking comfortable over the trip just shy of a mile-and-a-half.
Illinois finished a length third to his stablemate Los Angeles when the pair met in a Saint-Cloud Group One. On that occasion he was the mount of Ryan Moore and the apparent Ballydoyle first string, but he had to mount his challenge towards the middle of the track whereas his stablemate was able to grab the ‘golden highway’ on the rail. He is yet to progress as much as Los Angeles this term, but if the pecking order was correct on that occasion, then Ambiente Friendly has little to find with Los Angeles, or on collateral form, and is a big price in comparison.
Roger Teal has acquired the services of Dylan Browne McMonagle who takes his first ride in the Derby aboard Dancing Gemini.
The Camelot colt should be perfectly suited by the significant step up in trip, having failed to land a Group One over a mile. He ran very well in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains, finished half-a-length second in softer conditions at Longchamp, but possibly needs further to really stamp his authority. He appears overlooked at a price of 12/1 and could be a fairytale winner for connections.
Macduff finished second to Arabian Crown on his reappearance at Sandown, at a time when many of Ralph Beckett contenders were needing the run. He should strip fitter for the outing, and a step up to this distance may be what’s needed to see him perform to the best of his abilities.
By Sea The Stars, he showed promise as a juvenile but lacked the pace to be highly effective over the mile and could be suited by this step up on the ground.
Voyage has only been once in his career so far, when an impressive winner in a Newbury novice event. There was plenty to like about the manner of his victory and he is unexposed.
A relatively inexpensive purchase as a foal, costing 40,000gns, he has a strong middle-distance pedigree, being by Golden Horn out of a Galileo mare, with plenty of his relatives performing over a similar trip. One of the most intriguing runners in the field, it would be some feat for Richard Hannon if he were able to saddle this colt to victory.
At a big price, Dallas Star could be capable of outrunning his odds, as did fellow Amo Racing-owned King Of Steel in last year’s renewal. His juvenile form didn’t suggest he would turn into a Derby prospect, but his victory in the Ballysax Stakes certainly did, with Illinois five-and-a-half-lengths behind him in third at Leopardstown.
If he is able to replicate that level of performance then it would be no surprise to see him run another big race at big odds.
Selection: City Of Troy 7/2, Dancing Gemini 12/1 (each-way)
2:00pm – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3)
Roaring Lion filly Running Lion missed her chance at Classic glory when withdrawn ahead of the Oaks at the track last year. She has her chance at Epsom redemption at Group Three level, but faces stiff opposition and looks short enough at the prices.
There is plenty to like about Breege who was narrowly beaten by Royal Dress when last seen at Goodwood. She performed consistently well last term and should be competitive once again.
Astral Beau finished third in the race last year, three-quarters-of-a-length behind Prosperous Voyage. Capable of going close once again, she must improve on her recent effort at Newmarket but a return to her form in the Doncaster Mile Stakes should allow her to stake a claim for the places at least.
The nod goes to Royal Dress however, whose performance at Goodwood can be upgraded due to her having to make up plenty of ground coming from the rear of the field. She finished strongly, and this extra half-a-furlong could be all she needs to put daylight between herself and the field on this occasion.
At a price of 12/1, she represents plenty of each-way value for James Tate, with Ben Coen retaining the ride.
Selection: Royal Dress 12/1 (each-way)
2:35pm – Diomed Stakes (Group 3)
An open Group Three in which a case could be made for a number of the contenders, Embesto narrowly heads the market for Roger Varian, sporting a first-time hood. He was too keen when last seen in the Earl Of Sefton Stakes, but can build on his reappearance and may be tough to beat if he returns to his form of last season.
Regal Reality just beat Highland Avenue in the race last year, and both hold strong claims once again, whilst Epictetus is on a recovery mission following a number of disappointing efforts, but has the potential if he is able to rediscover his form of old.
It may be worth sticking with another horse who’s looking to reignite the spark that has been lost in recent runs, Royal Scotsman. He suffered injury problems last season, with the final run of his three-year-old campaign coming in the St James’s Palace Stakes when well beaten by Paddington. He had previously placed third in the 2,000 Guineas, suggesting a mile in easier conditions seemed to suit.
The Gleneagles colt should come on plenty for his opening run of the season, and he may just be able to spring a small surprise in this contest. On a going day, he has the ability to defeat this field, and he is the highest-rated in the line up. Royal Scotsman isn’t one to give up on just yet.
Selection: Royal Scotsman 8/1 (each-way)
3:45pm – “Dash” Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
These rapid sprint contests are always hard to predict unless there is a clear superior horse in the race.
Whilst Silky Wilkie has shown graded level form last season, he has struggled to land a handicap so far this term. Therefore, although the Karl Burke-trained gelding holds leading claims, he will need to perform to his best and have luck in-running if he is to justify favouritsm in first-time cheekpieces.
Also in the colours of Middleham Park Racing is top-weight Clarendon House who will attempt to build on his third in the race last year, now 11lbs higher. He is another son of Mehmas and comes into the race on the back of an impressive victory at York over Looking For Lynda, who reopposes.
Live In The Moment, last year’s favourite in the race, was hugely inconvenienced by the stalls mishap which resulted in a poor showing as he was unable to break quickly as he so often does. He is 1lbs lower this year, but has the benefit of in-form claimer Sean D Bowen taking another 5lbs off, giving him a featherweight to carry.
Dream Composer was unfortunate to be beaten on the line at Goodwood last week, but can put in another bold showing under 5lb claimer Joe Leavy, now 8lbs lower than his last winning mark. At a bigger price, he could outrun his odds to make the frame and holds strong each-way claims for James Evans.
Selection: Dream Composer 10/1 (each-way)
5:50pm – Class 2 Handicap
It may be worth sticking with a proven course-and-distance winner in Mr Wagyu who is 6lbs lower than when third in the contest twelve months ago.
A former winner of the race, the nine-year-old sprinter is a reliable horse who usually runs his race. He has been performing consistently well and, if able to get a clear passage, he holds leading claims in this contest.
Apollo One was just touched off in the race last year and his versatility in regards to ground conditions is a plus, however he is 8lbs higher than his last winning mark and could find one too good once again.
Top weight Misty Grey is a formidable force on his day and could make the frame, whilst at a bigger price Mums Tipple is one to consider on a workable mark of 96.
Flaming Rib is a wildcard, and certainly needs to show significant improvement on his form of late, but has Group One level form on his record, including when second in the Commonwealth Cup, and could provide a shock if returning to his best.
Selection: Mr Wagyu 6/1
* prices are correct at the time of publication
THE CONDITIONAL 