Katie Midwinter (26/09/24)
The Conditional is back with a Saturday preview from Newmarket, Listowel, Haydock, The Curragh, Market Rasen, and a mention of Auteuil…
NEWMARKET
1.15pm – British Stallion Studs EBF ‘Jersey Lily’ Fillies’ Nursery Handicap (Class 2)
With the ground likely to be testing come Saturday, it raises doubts about the suitability of some of the leading contenders who may not be suited by a stamian test over this 7f trip. At a big price, however, Timefall could be capable of springing a small surprise at a price for Ralph Beckett. The daughter of Time Test, out of Cascades, has shown some ability in five starts to date, shaping as though she could be suited by further in time.
Last seen finishing eighth in a competitive Conditions race at Doncaster, she stayed on well in the closing stages but lacked the pace to threaten the leaders, eventual winner Hallasan and Camille Pissarro. From a mark of 76 here, she could be well-handicapped and could take advantage should the market leaders fail to cope with conditions.
Selection: Timefall 20/1 (E/W)
1.50pm – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)
Charlie Fellowes-trained Luther is a promising colt who looks capable of landing a prize at this level. He was able to build on a promising debut success to finish half-a-length second to subsequent Woodbine Grade One winner New Century in the Listed Stonehenge Stakes, before claiming a Listed victory of his own, comfortably landing the Ascendant Stakes at Haydock. The ground was on the softer side of good on that occasion, suggesting softer conditions here may not prove too much of an inconvenience.
Wimbledon Hawkeye holds leading claims on his Acomb Stakes second to The Lion In Winter, but soft ground isn’t guaranteed to suit on pedigree, whilst Royal Playwright should be comfortable in conditions considering there is plenty of soft ground form in his family.
Puppet Master, a four-length winner in soft conditions at Galway, should have no stamina or ground concerns as he’s by Camelot out of multiple Group Three winner Realtra. On pedigree, he is an attractive contender in this ground, however, although he is unexposed, others have more compelling form and could improve further.
Selection: Luther 5/2
2.25pm – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)
Favourite Babouche looks far superior on form to the rest of the field in this Group One contest. Although she is level on ratings with Lake Victoria, her victory in the Phoenix Stakes warrants a higher mark considering second-placed Whistlejacket has considerably franked the form with a Group One Prix Morny win, and is now rated 115.
The Ger Lyons-trained Kodiac filly has enough speed to be highly effective over the sprinting trips, but has shaped as though a step up would suit, which bodes well for her chances should this become a slog in conditions.
There is little to suggest she shouldn’t cope with softer ground, as there is plenty of evidence on pedigree to indicate it will be within her capabilities, and she should have enough class to overcome her rivals in this race.
The yard has a poor record with runners in Britain during recent season, which perhaps raises a slight cause for concern, but this filly possesses plenty of ability and should be able to break their duck.
Well-related homebred for the Aga Khan Rayevka represents some value each-way at a price of 14/1, considering her soft ground form. The French-raider, representing Francis Henri Graffard, should stay further and could pick up the pieces should others falter.
Selection: Babouche 7/4
3.00pm – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1)
Clear on ratings, it could prove worth sticking with the favourite in the Middle Park Stakes, as Whistlejacket should be difficult to beat. Stablemate Ides Of March appears to be his biggest threat, as he is an improving type who remains relatively unexposed. The ground shouldn’t be a concern for the Ballydoyle pair, whilst Whistlejacket, a brother to the high-class Little Big Bear, should be comfortable in conditions, with proven form on soft ground.
Whilst many others in the field have plenty of potential, and could progress beyond their current ratings, none of them appear to be suited by testing conditions on pedigree, and they have a bit to find with the favourite regardless. Aidan O’Brien seeks a record-extending eighth win in the race, and holds the cards with his talented pair at the top of the market.
Selection: Whistlejacket 10/11
3.40pm – bet365 Cambridgeshire Handicap (Heritage Handicap)
A case can be made for much of the field in this 35-runner handicap, the hugely competitive Cambridgeshire. A shortlist is required in such a race, and it may be worth sticking with horses who have proven form in testing conditions, and are likely to stay well in the closing stages.
Former winner of the race Majestic is only 3lbs higher than when victorious from a low-weight two years ago. Aidan Keeley did claim 5lb that day, further enhancing his claims at the weights, however, the six-year-old has been competitive in heavy since, when fourth in the Lincoln from 93, with 3lb claimer George Bass in the saddle. A price of 33/1 appears generous.
Empirestateofmind is another with soft ground form in the book who has gone close in a number of competitive handicaps. With plenty of experience in his favour, and from a workable mark of 90, he also appears overpriced at odds of 66/1 and warrants a place on the shortlist.
Ron O has the potential to be competitive in a race of this nature, having performed consistently well throughout the season. He enters calculations from a workable mark of 94 under in-form Rossa Ryan.
Look Back Smiling and La Trinidad are two at huge prices that deserve consideration, whilst the completely unexposed Balmacara is an intriguing contender who appears to hold great claims from 102 if the challenge suits.
Likeable seven-year-old Dutch Decoy is a reliable type in these races, and was desperately unlucky not to win the Golden Mile at Goodwood in August, when powering home having been short of room. A mark of 89 is lenient, and he has proven himself on soft going. He gets the nod for Charlie Johnston, in the hands of Joe Fanning.
Selection: Dutch Decoy 66/1 (E/W)
Prediction:
- Dutch Decoy 66/1
- Balmacara 16/1
- Empirestateofmind 66/1
- La Trinidad 125/1
4.45pm – Stradivarius First Foals 2024 Handicap (Class 2)
Spangled Mac is on a handy mark from 94 under 7lb claimer Fred Daly, as he seeks an eighth career success for George Boughey. Although softer conditions may not be ideal, he can cope with testing ground therefore he may be worth sticking with at an enticing price. He appears ready to strike in one of these big handicaps and is one to keep on side in future races.
Selection: Spangled Mac 14/1 (E/W)
LISTOWEL
4.30pm – Charlie Chute Memorial Handicap
Gavin Cromwell-trained Law Ella makes her handicap debut over fences, reappearing for the first time since finishing second to Marsh Wren in a Listed Chase at Thurles in February. She has won when fresh on two occasions in the past, indicating she could be ready for this challenge on season debut. An opening mark of 130 could prove lenient considering Marsh Wren is now rated 145, and she has the ability to keep on progressing on what is only her fifth start over fences.
Flanking Maneuver makes his debut for Gordon Elliott having made the switch from Noel Meade. He has shown a good level of form at a higher level, including when fourth in a Listed Kilbeggan Chase to Idas Boy, and finished third, with Moonovercloon in second, in a competitive Galway handicap last month.
Moonovercloon was joined on the line by Battleoverdoyen that day, to be narrowly denied, but he firmly enters calculations once again, from a 4lb higher mark, especially considering he has form on soft ground. He finished third when 50/1 in a Punchestown Listed Handicap Hurdle, half-a-length behind Chapeau De Soleil, in April, and has threatened to win a race of this nature this season over fences. A likeable type, who is tough and game, the Matthew Smith-trained gelding makes plenty of appeal in these conditions under 7lb claimer James Smith.
His stablemate Another Choice is likely to be inconvenienced by conditions. and may be one for another day, whilst Walnut Beach, a Listed winner when last seen, should pose a threat and has won over hurdles on heavy, but may prefer a sounder surface at this stage in his career.
Selection: Moonovercloon
THE CURRAGH
An interesting card at The Curragh opens with an 18-runner maiden and features the Group Two Beresford Stakes plus two valuable juvenile races that includes the Goffs Million.
1.25pm – Maiden (2yo)
A big field heads to post for the opener, but there are a number of maidens worth of note and a few newcomers who, on pedigree and their profile, could be worth following in the coming months or into next season.
ASTON VALUE – The £72,000 son of Zoustar, out of Listed-placed Abbakova, is a half-brother to Listed-placed Deep Intrigue, a five-time winner over 6f. He should improve for a promising debut outing when third to Comanche Brave at Cork, in which he showed signs of greenness, and could play his part in this race for Johnny Murtagh.
BOUNTY – A Coolmore home-bred out of Group One Cheveley Park Stakes winner Rosdhu Queen, this son of No Nay Never could make a winning start under Wayne Lordan for a trainer in Aidan O’Brien who has a 30 percent strike-rate with juveniles at the track this year.
CITY PASS – The Arizona gelding was well-beaten in a Cork maiden on debut, but stuck to his task well in the closing stages having been short of room in the closing stages. Sent off at 80/1 that day, he’s capable of better and should improve for the experience, representing a trainer who has won this race twice in the past four renewals. His dam Duchess Diva is a half-sister to a number of talented horses including multiple Group One winner Dylan Thomas, as well as Oaks runner-up Remember When, the dam of Derby winner Serpentine.
Considering the yard’s form in the race, it could prove worth siding with one of their trio of runners, which also include Ballintogher and Lily’s Magic, and City Pass makes plenty of appeal on pedigree.
MATHAN – The Joseph O’Brien-trained Kodiac colt, a 215,000gns Tatts Book 1 yearling purchase, is out of Listed-placed Cristal Fashion. On pedigree, he could be most effective over further than 6f, but this may be a good starting point for the colt who could have potential.
RED EVOLUTION – The 300,000gns purchase, who is a half-brother to River Tiber, has shown a high level of form in his three starts to date, finishing half-a-length third to Henri Matisse on debut at the track, before finishing a neck second to Celtic Chieftain, ahead of the likes of Flash The Cash and recent Listed winner Rebel Diamond.
It’s a matter of time before the well-bred son of Mehmas breaks his maiden tag, and this looks a feasible opportunity in the hands of Seamie Heffernan who has a 33 percent strike-rate on Michael O’Callaghan’s juveniles this season.
NIGHT MAGIC – The first foal out of Midnight Sunshine, a half-sister to Group One-placed Eternal Silence, this Jessica Harrington-trained filly can build on her debut effort in a competitive maiden won by Exactly, which featured the likes of subsequent Listed winner Chantez, and Bubbling. That was a competitive race in which to make a first racecourse start and, if she can show some improvement, she should be able to pose a threat and use her previous experience to her advantage in this field.
Selection(s): Red Evolution & City Pass (E/W)
2.35pm – Beresford Stakes (Group 2)
Hotazhell heads the market for Jessica Harrington in the Group Two Beresford Stakes, bringing Group Three winning form from Leopardstown into the race on the back of a second-place finish to Henri Matisse at the track last month. The Too Darn Hot colt who fetched 200,000gns holds a number of Group One entries, including in the Dewhurst Stakes, and sets the standard in this five-runner field.
Dubawi colt Windlord makes the trip across the Irish Sea for Andrew Balding who is yet to saddle a winner at the track in eleven attempts. He’ll need to find more to win at this level, but he was impressive when comfortably beating Shah, second in the Convivial, earlier this month, and further progression is possible.
Leading trainer in the race with twenty-one wins, Aidan O’Brien saddles two contenders, both sporting blinkers, in unbeaten Listed winning son of Australia, Lambourn, and recent twelve-length maiden winner Trinity College, a son of 1000 Guineas winner Hermosa. Both have progressive profiles, and demand respect for a yard who recorded eleven successive wins in the race between 2011 and 2021, with the likes of Saxon Warrior, Japan and, most recently, Luxembourg.
Wootton Bassett colt Tennessee Stud completes the line-up for Joseph O’Brien and, although the outsider of the field, he isn’t one to discount following a nice maiden victory at Tipperary.
3.45pm – Goffs Million
Hat-trick seeking Apples And Bananas appears the one to beat in this competitive race following a Listed Deauville success, but he faces stiff opposition in the form of Ballydoyle pair Antelope Canyon, a winner over Currawood at Naas when last seen, and Garden Of Eden, second to Chantez in the Ingabelle Stakes at the Irish Champions Festival.
It would be no surprise to see any of the three main protagonists claim the valuable prize but there is plenty of each-way value among other contenders, and the promising Wootton Bassett colt Dante’s Lad could be good enough to make the frame. He has finished third in both of his two starts to date, placing behind Delacroix on debut at the track before being beaten by Monumental at Gowran Park. Monumental has gone on to frank the form with second in the Champagne Stakes, although he could only manage third at Newmarket on Thursday.
American Bar showed great promise in her debut success for last year’s winning trainer Paddy Twomey, but was disappointing when upped in class to Group Two level here. That performance, when ninth of nine, appeared too bad to be true and if she can bounce back from that effort and return to the level of her penultimate start, she enters calculations.
A newcomer for Michael O’Callaghan is Noli Timere, a daughter of Mahabba who, interestingly, is a half-sister to Dante’s Lad. The Starspangledbanner filly fetched €235,000 as a yearling and represents a yard with a decent strike-rate with juveniles this term.
Diamond Exchange is another debutante worthy of note for Jessica Harrington, whilst Diego Dias-trained Senna’s Girl makes some appeal at a big price on the form of her debut third to Lake Victoria, with Red Letter in second, at the track.
Selection(s): American Bar 10/1 & Senna’s Girl 28/1 (E/W)
HAYDOCK
4.25pm – Class 5 Nursery Handicap
Our Mighty Mo has the potential to progress far beyond his current mark of 76, which is only 3lbs higher than when winning his maiden at Hamilton on his penultimate start. Under 7lb claimer Sam Feilden, he holds excellent claims at the weights in this class, considering he has shown a higher level of ability in his previous starts.
Although he was unable to pose a dangerous threat on his most recent run at Ayr, this is a significant drop in class and he had previously featured in the Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes at York, when sent off at 150/1 that day, failing to find daylight in time to mount a challenge. A real eye-catcher in the paddock that day, as a good-looking, strong individual who stood out, there is a touch of class about him, and he remains a horse with plenty of potential.
With quite a rounded knee action, the Kodiac colt appears suited to softer conditions although it doesn’t appear he needs to run on testing ground. He copes well with it, however, whilst others may be inconvenienced, and that should give him the edge over his rivals in this contest.
Selection: Our Mighty Mo
MARKET RASEN
4.35pm – Prelude Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
At the bottom of the weights, progressive Got Grey attempts to retain his unbeaten tag for Dan Skelton, having made a recent switch from the Helen Nelmes yard. Formerly trained by Gavin Cromwell, the five-year-old has shown significant improvement in his recent outings and is on an upward trajectory, appearing ready for this challenge as he steps up in class.
From a mark of 113, the imposing grey can pose a threat for an in-form yard who has a 21 percent strike-rate at the track so far this season. Under Harry Skelton, he can continue his rich vein of form and could be one to follow closely in recent months. Seeking a hat-trick of wins, he holds leading claims.
Selection: Got Grey
AUTEUIL
In the 2m6f Grade Three at Auteuil, the Prix Richard et Robert Hennessy won last year by ill-fated Gesskille, Il Est Francais is set to make his seasonal return for the training partnership of Noel George and Amanda Zetterholm.
The talented six-year-old put in a captivating performance when stealing the show in the Grade One Kauto Star Novices’ Chase on King George Day at Kempton last December, and is set to return to the track to contend the main event this season. He put in a spectacular round of jumping under James Reveley, his usual partner who is booked to ride this weekend, when recording an eighth career success, but he then disappointed when well-beaten in the Grade Two Prix Murat, in an uncharacteristic poor display.
All eyes will be on the star chaser as he returns to action, and he will need to be at the top of his game as he faces competition from the likes of hat-trick seeking Jazz Manouche, a winner of two Grade Three contests on his last two outings, and the 2023 Grade Two Cleeve Hurdle winner, Gold Tweet.
Prices are correct at the time of publication.
Photo by Philippe Oursel on Unsplash
THE CONDITIONAL 