Katie Midwinter (11/04/24)
- Noble Yeats 22/1 – (165) 11st 12lb – Emmet Mullins, Harry Cobden
The 2022 champion faces a tough task at the weights but finished a gallant fourth in the race last year on a 1lb higher mark. The last horse to win carrying top weight was Red Rum in 1974 and only twice have horses managed to carry more than 11st 7lbs to victory – Red Rum himself to regain his crown in 1977, and Many Clouds in 2015. Soft ground will make it even tougher carrying such a hefty weight but he is a top class performer on his day and is impossible to rule out.
Verdict: One of the classiest horses in the field being a former winner who is able to compete in the top races. Versatile and reliable, his fourth-placed effort on a 1lb higher mark last year gives plenty of hope he can put in a repeat performance under a hefty weight once again, but may find one or two better handicapped.
- Nassalam 22/1 – (161) 11st 8lb – Gary Moore, Caoilin Quinn
A hugely impressive thirty-four-length winner of a testing Welsh Grand National earlier in the season, Nassalam was subsequently given a 16lb rise by the handicapper and faces a tough task on a mark of 161. Conditions will be in his favour however, and he was ahead of his mark when winning at Chepstow, therefore it’s plausible that he could cope with the rise in the weights on his desired ground.
Verdict: His win in the Welsh Grand National puts him among the leading hopes but he hasn’t been missed by the handicapper and a mark of 161 could make life difficult.
- Coko Beach 33/1 – (161) 11st 8lb – Gordon Elliott, Jordan Gainford
Likeable grey Coko Beach was pulled up in the race last year when on a 6lb lower mark. The softer ground is likely to suit and he consistently runs well in competitive handicaps. A winner of the Troytown Handicap Chase on testing Navan ground earlier in the season, he finished second under a hefty weight in the Becher Chase at the track in December and was a winner of a Punchestown Cross Country contest when last seen. He certainly enters calculations but a mark of 161 could prove stiff enough.
Verdict: Likely to be others better treated at the weights but he is a proven stayer with soft ground form which makes him a great each-way bet at the prices.
- Capodanno 40/1 – (161) 11st 8lb – Willie Mullins, Keith Donoghue
The eight-year-old was pulled up in the race last year when making his handicap debut over fences and is 1lb higher this time around, up 2lbs for an impressive winning effort in the Grade Two Cotswold Chase on his penultimate start. The classy performer stayed on well to finish fourth in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival when last seen but has stamina to prove over this trip.
Verdict: Stamina concerns if the ground is as testing as expected but the fact he was only pulled up before the final fence in last year’s renewal gives a glimmer of hope that he could stay and he certainly has the class to be competitive on a lenient mark.
- I Am Maximus 8/1 – (159) 11st 6lb – Willie Mullins, Paul Townend
Last year’s Irish Grand National winner is 10lbs higher than when winning the prestigious Fairyhouse prize but is 5lbs lower than his revised official rating following a fourteen-length defeat of Vanillier in the Grade Three Bobbyjo Chase when last seen. The ground will suit and he’s a strong stayer who could still be improving.
Verdict: One of the standout contenders, there is plenty to like about the Closutton representative and his proven form over marathon trips in testing conditions makes him difficult to oppose. Definitely one for the shortlist.
- Minella Indo 20/1 – (159) 11st 6lb – Henry de Bromhead, Rachael Blackmore
A former Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, he has failed to make an impression at Grade One level in recent seasons but appeared to relish the different challenge posed by the Cross Country track at Cheltenham in December. A classy horse who was rated 175 at his peak, his current mark of 159 could be lenient enough considering he is unexposed in this sort of contest.
Verdict: There is plenty to like about this classy eleven-year-old. A sound jumper and a likely stayer, he should be competitive if coping with conditions.
- Corach Rambler 13/2 – (159) 11st 6lb – Lucinda Russell, Derek Fox
Defending champion Corach Rambler has crucial proven form in the race but may not be suited by conditions as much as twelve months ago, now 13lbs higher rated. He had a tough race when an excellent third in the Gold Cup when last seen too, but sets the standard on form shown and on his previous victory in the race. Officially rated 162 following his Cheltenham Festival effort, he is 3lbs well in on official ratings and should be competitive once again if the ground doesn’t have too much of a negative effect.
Verdict: The rise in the weights plus the contrast in ground conditions makes him a less enticing selection that twelve months ago, especially considering his short price, however he is the reigning champion and is one of a few horses that has a solid level of form over course-and-distance, making him the one to beat.
- Janidil 100/1 – (159) 11st 6lb – Willie Mullins, Jody McGarvey
The ten-year-old is untried over much further than three miles, now faced with a significant step up in trip, but has shaped as a stayer. He was outpaced over 2m4½f in the Silvinaco Conti Chase but stayed on towards the finish. Yet to run in a handicap over fences, he is unexposed and is an interesting contender. Whilst he has plenty to prove, he is an unknown quantity in the field and could outrun his odds.
Verdict: Difficult to find clear reasons to support his case but he is unexposed and has shown he possesses plenty of class having won a Grade One as a novice. It’s interesting that connections are opting for the handicap route with him as a ten-year-old, especially considering this is his seventeenth start over fences. Shouldn’t be completely ruled out, and could well enjoy this new challenge.
- Stattler 50/1 – (158) 11st 5lb – Willie Mullins, Patrick Mullins
Winner of the National Hunt Chase at the 2022 Cheltenham Festival, and a proven stayer. The nine-year-old has been out of sorts this term and a mark of 158 could prove high enough, but he has form in graded races including when second to Galopin Des Champs in last year’s Irish Gold Cup plus when a neck behind Minella Indo, giving away 8lbs, in a Tramore Grade Three.
Verdict: He hasn’t shown enough this season to suggest he will be competitive in a race of this nature, and he has plenty of weight to carry.
- Mahler Mission 16/1 – (158) 11st 5lb – John C McConnell, Ben Harvey
A likeable gelding who finished second in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury when last seen. He was in the process of running a big race before falling in the National Hunt Chase won by subsequent Grand National third, Gaillard Du Mesnil, at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. A break of four months since his previous outing is a concern given he tends to go better with the benefit of a run, but he’s a strong stayer that will cope with ground conditions and has been trained with this target in mind.
Verdict: Unexposed over this trip but was running well when falling at the second last in the 3m6f chase at Cheltenham, suggesting he has plenty of stamina. With experience in competitive handicaps, this looks the perfect assignment for him and he is one for the shortlist.
- Delta Work 20/1 – (157) 11st 4lb – Gordon Elliott, Jack Kennedy
Finished third in the race two years ago on ground that was sounder than ideal, then unseated last year. The softer going will suit well and, although he hasn’t had a recent run due to the abandonment of the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham, he did run over hurdles at Navan in February. Whilst he’s possibly past his peak as an eleven-year-old, he is on a handy mark of 157 and looks great value at the prices.
Verdict: A tough horse who has previously proven his staying credentials in the race. Certain to enjoy conditions, he is tough and reliable, and, given he puts in a clear round of jumping, he’s likely to make the frame.
- Foxy Jacks 66/1 – (157) 11st 4lb – Michael “Mouse” Morris, Gavin Brouder
On a high mark of 157 given he finished fourth when a beaten favourite over hurdles at Leopardstown when last seen, on a mark of 125. However, he thrives over cross country fences and won a handicap chase at the Cheltenham November Meeting when on a mark of 149 with a 5lb claimer aboard. His lack of soft ground form is a concern.
Verdict: Others appear better handicapped and his high mark seems harsh on what he has achieved. On a positive note he will enjoy the jumping test, but the ground could be a negative factor.
- Galvin 35/1 -(155) 11st 2lb – Gordon Elliott, Sam Ewing
A good second to stablemate Delta Work in last year’s Cross Country and previously fourth in the Gold Cup, Galvin unseated at the first fence in the race last year and is 11lbs lower in the ratings this time around. The handicapper has given him a big chance but the weather appears against him as the soft ground is a huge concern.
Verdict: Classy and well-handicapped on a mark of 155 but difficult to fancy on the ground despite running well in defeat on soft at the Festival last year. If it isn’t as testing come Saturday he holds each-way claims at a big price, but needs plenty to be in his favour.
- Farouk D’alene 100/1 – (154) 11st 1lb – Gordon Elliott, Donagh Meyler
An inconsistent nine-year-old who was pulled up in the Pertemps Network Final when last seen at the Cheltenham Festival. His last run over fences was in a Listed contest at Thurles in November when beaten twenty-four-and-a-half-lengths by Classic Getaway, with only Capodanno behind him. He was a faller in his previous start on seasonal reappearance in the Troytown at Navan, and a faller in the Brown Advisory after which a 613-day absence followed. On paper he is best avoided but he has shown glimpses of ability and is relatively lightly-raced for his age with proven form on heavy ground.
Verdict: His huge odds are justified as he is unreliable and inconsistent however, he could be a surprise package if everything was to go his way. The fences could bring improvement from him in the jumping department, but he’s certainly a long shot.
- Eldorado Allen 100/1 – (153) 11st – Joe Tizzard, Brendan Powell
Making his second appearance following a wind operation, the ten-year-old was pulled up in his last outing at the Ultima and needs to return to form. Unexposed over this trip but a strong stayer over three miles, he is now rated 153 having been as high as 166 at his best. Softer ground is a concern.
Verdict: He has been a gallant performer over the years and has always been capable of springing a surprise in high-quality races, however, he has appeared regressive and there are plenty of question marks surrounding him in this kind of contest.
- Ain’t That A Shame 50/1 – (152) 10st 13lbs – Henry de Bromhead, David Maxwell
Trained by Henry de Bromhead, the ten-year-old had always promised to land a big handicap and, after a few disappointing efforts, he finally landed a valuable prize when winning the Grade Three Thyestes at Gowran Park on a mark of 144. Bought by David Maxwell, the amateur jockey onboard in this race, he has proven form on heavy ground in a tough handicap and could go well at a price but is 8lbs higher rated
Verdict: Capable of running a big race on his day, he has a new jockey in the form of amateur rider, and new owner, Maxwell. The yard knows how to prepare a horse for this race, and he could still be well treated on his current mark, but others are preferred.
- Vanillier 9/1 – (151) 151 – Gavin Cromwell, Sean Flanagan
Last year’s runner up is 4lbs higher than when two-and-a-quarter-lengths behind Corach Rambler twelve months ago. He gave the winner 1lb on that occasion, but is now in receipt of 8lbs, a 9lb swing in his favour. Trainer Gavin Cromwell has saddled plenty of winners in Britain this season and it would be no surprise to see Vanillier go one better to land the prestigious trophy on a lenient mark of 151.
Verdict: A proven stayer who is better off at the weights with the reigning champion in this renewal, he has crucial form at the course and should make the frame once again. The soft ground is in his favour and he is a leading contender.
- Mr Incredible 12/1 – (150) 10st 11lbs – Willie Mullins, Brian Hayes
An impressive second in the Midlands Grand National when last seen at Uttoxeter, carrying a top weight of 12st. He has often run well when carrying hefty weights, including when third in the Kim Muir at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, and was unfortunate to unseat when the saddle slipped at the canal turn on the second circuit in last year’s race. Now 5lbs lower he has an extra year of experience and, having previously been quite quirky, has matured.
Verdict: Plenty to like about this gelding, he holds leading claims having proven his staying credentials over 4m2f and a mark of 150 appears workable enough. A leading contender.
- Run Wild Fred 100/1 – (149) 10st 10lbs – Gordon Elliott, Tom Hamilton
A faller in the race two years ago when sent off at 8/1 on a 9lb higher mark, his chance may be gone as he has looked out of sorts this season but he had previously finished second in the Irish Grand National and he has proven stamina. Extreme conditions are unlikely to suit but he has form on heavy and could outrun his huge odds with a clear round of jumping.
Verdict: A likeable horse who held leading claims in the race a couple of years ago, he appears past his best now and must show significant improvement if he is to make the frame.
- Latenightpass 40/1 – (149) 10st 10lbs – Tom Ellis, Gina Andrews
Trained by champion point-to-point trainer Tom Ellis, who has taken out a professional training licence to enter the eleven-year-old, owned by his mother Pippa Ellis and set to be ridden by his wife Gina Andrews, it would be a momentous occasion for the Ellis family if the eleven-year-old was to finish first past the post on Saturday. He finished second on the cross country course at Cheltenham in November before winning at the track in December, and was fourth in the Open Hunters’ Chase at the meeting last year. A talented horse that will be suited by the challenge these fences pose, he’s hard to rule out.
Verdict: A lively each-way contender who has form at the track and plenty of experience over cross country fences. It would be some feat for connections if he could land the prize.
- Minella Crooner 80/1 – (149) 10st 10lbs – Gordon Elliott, Kevin Sexton
Pulled up in the Ultima on his last outing, the gelding finished third in the Savills New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore on testing ground when giving 3lbs to now 153-rated Jungle Boogie. He has been pulled up in three of four starts over further three miles and is hard to fancy.
Verdict: Obvious stamina concerns, others are preferred.
- Adamantly Chosen 50/1 – (148) 10st 9lbs – Willie Mullins, Sean O’Keeffe
A 3m2f success when last seen at Down Royal gives some confidence in his stamina capabilities over this trip and he should cope with conditions. Unexposed, he has previously shown class when second to the likes of Gerri Colombe and Mighty Potter and is only a seven-year-old, capable of showing further improvement. He won a Grade Three over fences as a novice and possesses some class, but is hard to select with much confidence.
Verdict: Carries a low weight but had finished down the field in his only start over further than three miles before winning at Down Royal when last seen. Won comfortably on last outing but has to prove himself in a tougher test of stamina.
- Mac Tottie 66/1 – (148) 10st 9lbs – Peter Bowen, James Bowen
Won the Topham in 2022 when on a 13lb lower mark, he also won at the track in December but has put in two disappointing efforts since. Pulled up on two from three runs on heavy ground although he has coped on soft ground in the past. The extreme test of stamina appears unlikely to suit considering he was pulled up when carrying a low weight in the Welsh Grand National previously.
Verdict: Question marks over his suitability to this kind of test, especially in testing conditions.
- Chemical Energy 50/1 – (148) 10st 9lbs – Gordon Elliott, Danny Gilligan
A horse that often goes well fresh, the lack of a recent run isn’t a huge concern and he was second in the National Hunt Chase last year to the impressive Gaillard Du Mesnil, giving hope in his stamina capabilities over this trip. He was pulled up in the Irish Grand National last year in which there were only six finishers, and testing ground may not suit, but he is still relatively unexposed and therefore hard to rule out.
Verdict: Certainly a horse of interest, he remains on a mark of 147 which could be workable enough but he will need a career best.
- Limerick Lace 16/1 – (147) 10st 8lbs – Gavin Cromwell, Mark Walsh
The seven-year-old mare recently won the Grade Two Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival when last seen, beating 158-rated Dinoblue when in receipt of 5lbs. She was second to Coko Beach in the Troytown, staying on well, and is the selection of owner JP McManus’ retained rider, Mark Walsh.
Verdict: Hard to rule out on a lenient mark, she has to prove herself over the trip but her run on the testing ground at Navan suggests she possesses plenty of stamina.
- Meetingofthewaters 9/1 – (147) 10st 8lbs – Willie Mullins, Danny Mullins
Recently purchased by leading owner JP McManus, having previously been owned by Paul Byrne and Patrick Mullins, respectively, Meetingofthewaters was an impressive four-and-a-half-length winner of the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over the festive period. He was subsequently given a 15lb rise for his exertions but unseated on next outing in the Dublin Racing Festival. He finished third on a mark of 147 in the Ultima when last seen, staying on well, and holds leading claims on a workable mark.
Verdict: One of the most intriguing contenders in the field, he has shaped as a strong stayer and is still improving. This race could suit him perfectly.
- The Goffer 66/1 – (147) 10st 8lb – Gordon Elliott, Sean Bowen
The consistent seven-year-old finished fourth in the Ultima last year, ten-and-three-quarter-lengths behind Corach Rambler, but could only manage fifth in the contest this year when thirty-three-and-three-quarter-lengths behind, sent off as 9/2 favourite. He’s a likeable type but this doesn’t appear to be the race most suited to him.
Verdict: Stamina queries, particularly in testing conditions. Doesn’t appear to need this extreme step up in trip.
- Roi Mage 66/1 – (147) 10st 8lb – Patrick Griffin, James Reveley
The veteran performer finished seventh in the race last year when on a 2lb higher mark. The softer ground could suit better but he has been highly tried and is now an eleven-year-old making his 56th career start. A strong stayer who could make the frame again, it’s hard to envisage a scenario in which he wins but, although it doesn’t happen very often, there have been ten twelve-year-old winners of the race, most recently Amberleigh House in 2004.
Verdict: Has completed the course before and could go well at price again, but may be too long in the tooth.
- Glengouly 66/1 – (146) 10st 7lb – Willie Mullins, Michael O’Sullivan
Lightly raced over further than three miles, the eight-year-old is still relatively unexposed and could still be improving as a chaser. The softer ground isn’t a major concern but he has stamina to prove. He has finished second on two occasions this season including behind Ain’t That A Shame in the Thyestes, and is only 5lbs higher here.
Verdict: Not a certainty to stay the extra distance but has potential.
- Galia Des Liteaux 28/1 – (146) 10st 7lb – Dan Skelton, Harry Skelton
A talented mare who thrives on softer conditions and stays well, she finished fifth in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase last year before a fourth-placed finish in the Mildmay at Aintree, proving she has quality. She was disappointing at Exeter when last seen but had previously finished second to My Silver Lining, who has finished second and third in competitive handicaps since, at Warwick.
Verdict: A likely stayer with heavy ground form, she is on a workable enough mark but whether or not she will prove good enough remains to be seen.
- Panda Boy 12/1 – (146) 10st 7lb – Martin Brassil, J J Slevin
Fourth in a handicap hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival when last seen, he had previously finished second to Meetingofthewaters in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown and was fifth in the Irish Grand National last year. He stays well and should cope with conditions. Although he is on a career high mark, he carries a low weight which could see him enter calculations.
Verdict: A certain stayer with soft ground form, a low weight brings him into play and he holds strong each-way claims.
- Eklat De Rire 100/1 – (146) 10st 7lb – Henry de Bromhead, Darragh O’Keeffe
The ten-year-old has proven his stamina credentials in the past but he doesn’t look particularly well handicapped on a mark of 146 and has failed to make an impression in three big field handicaps over further than three miles.
Verdict: Has plenty to prove and will need to show significantly more if he is to make the frame.
- Chambard 66/1 – (146) 10st 7lb – Venetia Williams, Lucy Turner
A good winner at the course in testing ground when beating Coko Beach in December, in receipt of 22lbs. He has run below par twice since and is now 6lbs higher than his last winning mark at the grand age of twelve.
Verdict: May have a chance of placing if getting into a good rhythm but others are preferred.
- Kitty’s Light 14/1 (146) 10st 7lb – Christian Williams, Jack Tudor
The strong stayer has a part to play if coping with conditions, carrying a low weight, but would likely prefer a sounder surface. Seventh in the Ultima when last seen, he is 6lbs higher than his last winning mark but has proven form over further than four miles and is a likeable type.
Verdict: Would have strong claims carrying a low weight if the ground was in his favour. May cope with conditions and will likely be popular with punters. One to consider but the ground is a worry.
Top 5:
1. Meetingofthewaters 9/1
2. Delta Work 20/1
3. Mr Incredible 12/1
4. I Am Maximus 8/1
5. Vanillier 9/1
Wildcards:
Chemical Energy 50/1
- With proven stamina and on a workable mark of 147, he goes well fresh and could be one to spring a surprise.
Minella Indo 20/1
- A high enough mark of 159, but he was rated much higher at his peak and has plenty of class being a Gold Cup winner. He’s unexposed and could be competitive if coping with conditions.
Special mentions:
Corach Rambler 13/2
- The ground as well as the extra weight could make it tougher this year, but he has to be respected as the defending champion and it would be a special moment if he was to record back-to-back wins in the prestigious contest.
Noble Yeats 22/1
- Top weight will make it extremely tough, especially with the likely testing conditions, however, he is a former winner of the race and is a force to be reckoned with on his day.
Coko Beach 33/1
- His high mark of 161 may have ruined his chances of landing the main prize but there is plenty to suggest a placed finish isn’t out of the question.
* All prices and runners are correct at the time of publication.
THE CONDITIONAL 